Will Any 2012 GOP Presidential Candidates Embrace Ken Mehlman?

The Republican Party was rocked this week, at least on the issue of gay rights, with the coming out of Ken Mehlman. With one article officially confirming his sexual orientation in The Atlantic, Mehlman became the most high profile Republican to ever come out as gay.

As the man who led the re-election campaign of Bush/Cheney in 2004, as well as a former head of the Republican National Committee, Mehlman's coming out is going to touch the lives of thousands of GOP members. Whatever personal sentiments folks have about Mehlman right now -- and there are certainly many who are angry with Mehlman for presiding over a party at a time when the GOP tried to earn votes by being extremely anti-gay -- his coming out will make a difference. As William Saletan at Slate notes, "Many influential Republicans have worked with him and respect him. He makes it harder for them to think of homosexuality as a behavior. They now know somebody who is gay. Or, as Donald Rumsfeld might have put it, they now know that they know somebody who is gay."

And as we know (and as Harvey Milk put so well back in the late 1970s), "If they know us, they don't vote against us."

At least, that's supposed to be how it goes. But will Mehlman's coming out -- not to mention the increasing support for LGBT equality among the conservative crowd, from Margaret Hoover to Ted Olson to Elisabaeth Hasselbeck -- really have that kind of transformative impact on the GOP?

Not if you look at the GOP candidates that are likely running in 2012.

Nobody has officially declared on the GOP side that they'll be running for President in 2012 yet. But enough politicians have made maneuvers to suggest that a '12 bid is in their future. And of those who look like potential candidates, not a single one would accept a wedding invitation (much less a dinner invitation) from Ken Mehlman.

Take current Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. Earlier this year, as Pawlenty has made overtures toward running for President in 2012, he vetoed a bill that would have allowed same-sex partners to plan the funerals of their loved ones. Yes, according to Pawlenty, giving gay people the ability to handle the dead remains of their partners is a little too close to gay marriage. This move came on top of a public apology Pawlenty made for once supporting anti-discrimination measures aimed at protecting gay folks from being fired because they're gay. That's right, Pawlenty apologized for once thinking that gay people shouldn't be fired from their jobs.

Or take former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich. In the past few years, Gingrich has said that people who support gay marriage are fascists, and that they threaten to take our country down a dangerous path. And earlier this month, after Judge Vaughn Walker ruled that California's Proposition 8 was unconstitutional, Gingrich took to the airwaves to suggest that marriage equality supporters were un-American. One has to wonder if today, Gingrich is questioning the patriotism of Ken Mehlman.

Then there's former Alaska Governor and VP candidate Sarah Palin. Though Palin said in her 2008 debate with current VP Joe Biden that she was tolerant and had gay friends, she's made it crystal clear that LGBT Americans should not have the right to marry. Palin, after all, wants an amendment to the U.S. Constitution banning gay marriage nationwide. "I don't support gay marriage," Palin has made clear.

And what about former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney? Though he's become practically mute on all social issues, Romney has made it clear that he opposes same-sex marriage. As Governor of Massachusetts, Romney dug up a 100-year-old law to block out-of-state gay couples from getting married, and proudly once said, "I don't want civil unions or gay marriage," indicating that Romney's not even cool with LGBT Americans being just slightly less than equal. And who can forget thatRomney's own church, the Mormon Church, is the single largest donor to anti-gay causes in the country.

Of course, who can forget former Senator Rick Santorum, who infamously compared homosexuality to "man on dog" sex. Think Santorum, who Mehlman once glowingly endorsed, is down with a gay Kenny? Don't count on it. Last month, Santorum went off in a column in the Philadelphia Inquirerabout how gay marriage needed to be stopped, and how states that legalize same-sex marriage (like Massachusetts) are bringing our entire nation down.

Who's left? Mike "gays = abhorrent sodomy" Huckabee? John "Yes, I want to ban gay marriage and gay adoption" Thune? Michele "gay people are pedophiles" Bachmann?

Don't get me wrong, Mehlman's coming out is going to affect some Republicans, and I've no doubt that Mehlman will change some hearts and minds on the issue of LGBT equality.

But I'm less hopeful that Mehlman's coming out will usher in an era of inclusiveness in the GOP, like some folks are arguing. There's just no leader willing to go to bat for LGBT equality. And though it's nice that Dick Cheney and Laura Bush and Steve Schmidt think gay marriage is totally fine, they don't wield any power in terms of shaping party policy. That job belongs to the leaders all mentioned up above.

And all of them, unfortunately, find being anti-gay as comfortable as slipping on a plush, fluffy robe.

Photo credit: John-Morgan