Showing posts with label Polls. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Polls. Show all posts

October 22, 2017

Not Every Question Out to Be For a Vote! BBC Radio Kent Knows That Now

No, not every topic should be put to a vote. Democracy can be good but too much of a good thing can make you sick. If Civil Rights questions were put to a vote like the anti-Gay government of Australia is doing for gay marriage, then there would still be water racial water fountains. We would not have equal rights laws passed by either the government or the Courts. At the time those history high marks were obtained for everyone sometimes against the majority if not all of those that felt superior to others.
It was deemed that if we were to have a nation of laws that are as fair as possible and treat every person as the US constitution asks then political action had to be taken by strong men of conviction in the government.

You would not expect a vote on your city council or in your neighborhood association that deprives you of shopping at any particular supermarket and to have one would be not just unfair it would be illegal in most places. With that in mind let's approach the question asked in tweeter.

Radio Kent Twitter poll:
 It asked whether gay conversion therapy is an acceptable practice 
                                         Yes?-__ No?__

"TV Doctor Dr. Ranj has told breakfast gay conversion therapy is akin to psychological abuse; Should gay conversion therapy be banned?"

The Gay Times said BBC radio had "asked the stupidest question".

The BBC deleted the tweet, which it said breached its own guidelines, and apologized for the offense it caused. 

It added: "We accept that the poll was not the most appropriate way of dealing with this sensitive issue."
One of the many Twitter users who took exception to the tweet was Guardian columnist Owen Jones, who asked: "Why are you doing this?"

Human rights organization Stonewall said it was unbelievable that the BBC thought it an appropriate topic for a poll.
Twitter users claimed the need for a poll was ridiculous.
People challenged whether other basic human rights should also be debated...
In 2015, 14 organizations, including NHS England, signed an agreement to stop gay conversion therapy being offered to patients.

Last month, BBC Radio Kent conducted a poll which asked: "Is it ever acceptable for people to 'Black up' even if it's for charity?" O-yes O-no

Dr. Ranj Singh, from Chatham, who is the resident doctor on ITV's This Morning programme, had called for gay conversion therapy to be made illegal, during an interview on BBC Radio Kent that was prompted by the prime minister's recent condemnation of the controversial practice.
He said: "It should be illegal, it is akin to almost psychological abuse.
"We have to understand that it is not always black and white, there are some people who are definitely heterosexual, there are some people who are definitely homosexual and they know their identities, and there are some people who are in between."


August 3, 2017

Trump Dumps to 33% Approval on New Poll

President Donald Trump plunges to a new low as American voters disapprove 61 - 33 percent of the job he is doing, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released today. White men are divided 47 - 48 percent and Republicans approve 76 - 17 percent. White voters with no college degree, a key part of the president's base, disapprove 50 - 43 percent. 

Today's approval rating is down from a 55 - 40 percent disapproval in a June 29 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. This is President Trump's lowest approval and highest disapproval number since he was inaugurated. 

American voters say 54 - 26 percent that they are embarrassed rather than proud to have Trump as president. Voters say 57 - 40 percent he is abusing the powers of his office and say 60 - 36 percent that he believes he is above the law. 

President Trump is not levelheaded, say 71 - 26 percent of voters, his worst score on that character trait. Voter opinions of most other Trump qualities drop to new lows:
  • 62 - 34 percent that he is not honest;
  • 63 - 34 percent that he does not have good leadership skills;
  • 59 - 39 percent that he does not care about average Americans;
  • 58 - 39 percent that he is a strong person;
  • 55 - 42 percent that he is intelligent;
  • 63 - 34 percent that he does not share their values.
"It's hard to pick what is the most alarming number in the troubling trail of new lows for President Donald Trump," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. 

"Profound embarrassment over his performance in office and deepening concern over his level-headedness have to raise the biggest red flags. 

"The daily drip drip of missteps and firings and discord are generating a tidal wave of bad polling numbers. 

"Is there a wall big enough to hold it back?" 

American voters give Arizona Sen. John McCain a 57 - 32 percent favorability rating, with a 74 - 18 percent positive score from Democrats and a 60 - 28 percent positive rating from independent voters. Republicans give McCain a negative 39 - 49 percent rating. 

Trump gets a negative 34 - 61 percent favorability rating, with a 79 - 17 percent positive score from Republicans. All other groups are negative, with white men at 47 - 48 percent. That Russian Thing 

The president "has attempted to derail or obstruct the investigation into the Russian interference in the 2016 election," American voters believe 58 - 37 percent. 

Voters believe 63 - 31 percent that the Russian government interfered in the 2016 election. Republicans don't believe it 61 - 30 percent, while every other group believes by wide margins that the Russians interfered. 

Trump did something illegal in dealing with Russia, 30 percent of voters say, while 30 percent say he did something unethical, but not illegal and 32 percent say he did nothing wrong. These numbers are similar for Donald Trump Jr. and Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner. 

American voters give Trump negative approval ratings for handling key issues:
  • 41 - 52 percent for handling the economy;
  • 36 - 59 percent for foreign policy;
  • 46 percent approve of his handling of terrorism and 47 percent disapprove;
  • 38 - 59 percent for immigration;
  • 28 - 65 percent for health care. Trump's Tweets
Trump should stop tweeting from his personal Twitter account, American voters say 69 - 27 percent, the biggest no-tweet vote so far. 

From July 27 - August 1, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,125 voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points, including the design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones. 

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys nationwide, and in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa and Colorado as a public service and for research. 

Poll released August 2, 2017 
Visit or Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

July 3, 2017

Trump Fails To Go Beyond Base While Losing the Independents

President Trump's support among independent voters has eroded since he took office. Though he still clings to a loyal base of supporters, his overall disapproval among Americans has reached record highs, according to a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll
Just 37 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing just over five months into his tenure, while 51 percent disapprove. Forty percent of those polled strongly disapprove of Trump's performance, twice the 20 percent who strongly approved.
The most pronounced swing seen in the poll was among independents. Over the past four months, their approval of the president has dissipated. In February, 40 percent of independents said they approved of the job Trump was doing, with 51 percent disapproving. Four months later in June, just 31 percent say they approve of the president with 59 percent of independents disapproving — a 17-point net-negative drop.
Despite almost full employment nationwide, independents are particularly dissatisfied with Trump on the economy. That's likely driving much of their overall disapproval. Just 31 percent of independents say they have confidence in Trump's ability to improve the U.S. economy, while 49 percent doubt he can do so. Just three months ago, 44 percent thought Trump could turn around the economy, while 38 percent didn't — a whiplash-worthy 24-point swing.
Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, said the scope of the shift over the past few months among independents should cause "alarm bells to go off" at the White House.
"Independents were certainly willing to give Trump the benefit of the doubt when he entered the office," Miringoff said, "but on issues like the direction of the country and the economy, they've really soured on him. It's hard for someone like him to make a second impression. Independents have come to the conclusion that what you see is what you get."
The good news for Trump is that his base hasn't abandoned him even as he has faced mounting investigations. Eighty percent of Republicans still approve of the job he is doing, including 91 percent who identify as strong Republicans. Trump has an 89 percent approval rating among those who voted for him last November. He has a 65 percent approval rating among white evangelical Christians, though almost a quarter disapproves of the job he is doing. 

Still, there are some warning signs for the president among some of his key demographic groups. Only 52 percent of white, non-college-educated Americans approve of the job he's doing, though just 37 percent disapprove. And that is higher than most other subgroups. More worrisome for the president, among older Americans, 60 and older, he's underwater — 47 percent disapprove, while 43 percent approve.
Overall, Americans' outlook under Trump is dismal. Almost double say the country is on the wrong track as those who think it's on the right track, 61 percent to 31 percent, a gap that has nearly doubled since February.
More people say they feel worse off — 40 percent — since Trump took office, than better off — 34 percent. There is a deep partisan divide on that question, of course — 73 percent of Republicans say they're better off, while 67 percent of Democrats say the opposite. Among independents, far more — 44 percent — say they're worse off, compared with just 27 percent who say they're better off.
Americans also think Trump has hurt the country on the global stage. Fifty-eight percent say the president has weakened the United States' position abroad, while 34 percent say he has strengthened it.
In addition, by a 24-point margin, Americans believe former President Barack Obama was, by far, a more effective leader in comparison to Trump, 58 percent to 34 percent. Among independents, there is an even more pronounced 36-point difference, 65 percent to 29 percent.
A narrow plurality does think Trump is keeping his campaign promises (48 percent who do and 45 percent who don't), but most people disagree with some of the president's recent decisions. Fifty-three percent of those surveyed said they opposed Trump pulling out of the Paris climate accord earlier this month, while just 30 percent supported it. 
Just over half of Americans also think the Supreme Court should rule against Trump's travel ban, which would curtail the entry of people from six Muslim-majority countries, while 43 percent say the high court should rule in the president's favor and allow him to proceed with one of his key campaign promises. A slim majority of independents (52 percent) also think the court should strike down the ban.
There is a cloud of suspicion that hangs over the president as well, with mounting questions about his business ties that are only compounded by his continued refusal to release his tax returns. More than 6 in 10 Americans say they believe Trump has either done something illegal (33 percent) or unethical but not illegal (28 percent). Just 31 percent say they believe he has done nothing wrong. 
One place where Trump is losing GOP support is over his Twitter habit. Sixty-nine percent of Americans say Trump's use of Twitter is "reckless and distracting," while only 21 percent say it's "effective and informative." Even among Republicans, only a narrow plurality (43 percent) say the president's use of Twitter is positive, while 42 percent agree it's reckless and distracting.
And while Americans have a sour view of Trump, their opinion of Congress — both Democrats and Republicans — is no better. Congressional Republicans have a 33-point net-negative approval rating (28 percent to 61 percent) while congressional Democrats are not much better with a 27-point net-negative approval (30 percent to 57 percent). 
"Nobody is benefiting in Washington from what is going on," Miringoff said.
Looking ahead to the 2018 midterms, registered voters say they're more likely to vote for a Democratic member of Congress over a Republican one by a 10-point margin, 48 percent to 38 percent.
But, with a gerrymandered congressional map that benefits the GOP, that double-digit advantage is less imposing than it may seem and may not be enough to help Democrats win back the House.
What's more, as they learned in last week's special-election loss in a Georgia House race, making the election too much about Trump isn't necessarily a silver bullet, either.

The NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll surveyed 1,205 adults from June 21-25 contacted by live interviewers using a mix of landline and mobile numbers. There is a 2.8-percentage point margin of error. A sub-sample of 995 registered voters were also surveyed, with a 3.1-percentage point margin of error.

January 31, 2017

Poll: Favorability of Trump’s Cabinet Picks

The range goes from 0+ up also from minus -0 down. No one reached very high numbers but they all  had different numbers on the scale. Three of them had minus on the scale.

January 30, 2017

Trump Broken All Records of Disapproval in the First 8 days in WH

 In normal times, it takes American presidents hundreds of days before they reach a majority disapproval rating. 
This has been the case for the last five presidents - with Bill Clinton being the previous record holder after taking 573 days to have more than 50 per cent of Americans disapprove of his presidency.
But Donald Trump, the billionaire businessman, TV star and now US president, has smashed this record after his victory on a wave of anti-establishment anger. 
It has taken just eight days for him to gain a majority disapproval rating, according to Gallup polling, with 51 per cent of Americans saying they disapproved of the President on 28 January 2016.

Trump has broken the record for the amount of time It’s taken for the majority of Americans to disapprove of the President
Days taken to see at least 50% of Americans disapproving of the President

Days in office

 Trump              Clinton    Reagan                     Obama Bush/     HWBush
   8                        573              727                      936     1205       1336……….DAYS

Source Gallop                                     by Adamfoxie*blog

Trump's first week in office has caused controversy and international outcry after a raft of executive orders has seen immigration halted from seven Muslim-majority countries, the unravelling of Obamacare, the withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal and the blocking of funding for groups that perform abortions.
He attacked the media for saying (truthfully) that Obama's inauguration crowd size was larger than his own, after millions of people around the world took to the street on the Women's Marchone day into his presidency.
The unprecedented week in American politics has helped Trump break the record for the shortest amount of time for a president to reach a majority disapproval rating.
Compared to his eight days, it took Barack Obama 936 days and George W. Bush 1,205 days to see over half the country disapprove of them.
The Republican managed to win November's US election by claiming certain key swing states in order to clinch the presidency, despite losing the popular vote by 2.9 million ballots.
This may go some of the way to explain why his approval rating is 24 points lower than Barack Obama’s when he was just eight days into his presidency.

 Ashley Kirk

Obama’s average approval rating was 48 per cent - lower than the last five presidentsAverage approval rating Presidents of the USAObamaBush  How does Trump compare to other presidents before they took office? Even before his inauguration his approval ratings were the lowest of any president in two decades. According to Gallup, the last three presidents had approval ratings of at least 65 per cent during their presidential transitions - significantly higher than Trump's. Some 75 percent of America's approved of the way Obama handled his transition, while 65 per cent approved of Bush and 67 per cent approved of Clinton. 
This compares to Trump, whose transition was approved of by 48 per cent of Americans - while another 48 per cent disapprove. 
According to Gallup, one key reason Trump's transition approval lags behind his predecessors' is because the opposition is far more critical of him.
Before his inauguration, Gallup said: "Trump still has time to turn the tide and avoid starting his presidency with the lowest public support in Gallup's polling history, but that would largely entail gaining the support of independents and, in particular, Democrats - most of whom appear reluctant to back him."

November 9, 2016

This is How The Polls Got It Wrong

November 7, 2016

Swing State Polling

2016 General Election Polling on Leading States Clinton-Trump

Poll Average Favors Clinton 20 hrs Before Elections

November 3, 2016

Poll Average(all polls together) Clinton Vs. Trump

Swing State Polls

October 29, 2016

Election Polling Ending Oct. 26

This is a summary of a YouGov/Economist Poll conducted October 22-26, 2016. The sample is 1376 Registered Voters with a Margin of Error of ±3.1%.

Where not specified otherwise, findings shown are for registered voters.


Who [did/will] you vote for in the election for President in November? 

Four-way presidential vote intention among Likely Voters:

  • Hillary Clinton (Democrat): 46%
  • Donald Trump (Republican): 41%
  • Gary Johnson (Libertarian): 4%
  • Jill Stein (Green): 2%
  • Other: 1%
  • Not sure: 7%
Among Registered Voters
  • Hillary Clinton (Democrat): 45%
  • Donald Trump (Republican): 41%
  • Gary Johnson (Libertarian): 4%
  • Jill Stein (Green): 2%
  • Other: 1%
  • Not sure: 8%
2-way follow-up: Respondents who selected Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, or ’someone else’ were asked the following question ’Which candidate do you prefer more, Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?’ Below those responses have been added to the support for Clinton and Trump from the initial question. 

Major party presidential preference among Likely Voters:

  • Hillary Clinton: 49%
  • Donald Trump: 46%
  • Someone else / Not sure / No preference: 5%
Among Registered Voters: 
  • Hillary Clinton: 48%
  • Donald Trump: 46%
  • Someone else / Not sure / No preference: 6%
What do you think is the most likely outcome of the presidential election with Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee and Donald Trump as the Republican nominee?
  • Clinton will win in a landslide: 31% (+3)
  • Clinton will win narrowly: 26% (-3)
  • Trump will win narrowly: 19% (0)
  • Trump will win in a landslide: 9% (+1)
  • Not sure: 16% (-1)


Hillary Clinton 
  • Favorable: 41% (-1)
  • Unfavorable: 57% (0)
  • Not sure: 1% (0)
Donald Trump
  • Favorable: 38% (+2)
  • Unfavorable: 61% (-2) 
  • Not sure: 2% (+1)


Among Likely Voters:

If the election for Congress were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be voting for...
  • The Democratic Party candidate: 45% 
  • The Republican Party candidate: 40%
  • Other: 2% 
  • Not sure: 12%
  • I would not vote: 1%
Among Registered Voters:

If the election for Congress were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be voting for...
  • The Democratic Party candidate: 43% (0) 
  • The Republican Party candidate: 39% (+1)
  • Other: 2% 
  • Not sure: 14%
  • I would not vote: 2%

Approval of Obama as president 
  • Approve: 47% (-3)
  • Disapprove: 50% (+2)
Approval of Congress: 
  • Approve: 11% (-1)
  • Disapprove: 64% (-6)
  • Neither: 17% (+4)

Direction of the country: 
  • Right direction: 29% (+1)
  • Wrong Track: 62% (-1)

October 18, 2016

Poll: Will Count be Accurate in the 2016 Elections?

General Election Polling Clinton-Trump

October 16, 2016

Trumps Chances to Win This Election-Game Have Evaporated


"Donald Trump's chances of winning this election have faded," says Democratic pollster Fred Yang of Hart Research Associates, which conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff and his firm Public Opinion Strategies.

"This poll is showing the writing on the wall," Yang adds.

And the Republican McInturff observes that Trump "is in a weaker position than in September," and that his numbers in the poll don't align with anyone who has gone on to win a presidential election.

Clinton Up By 20 Pts Among Women

Looking inside the numbers of the two-way horse race, Clinton holds a 20-point lead among female voters (55 percent to 35 percent), while Trump is ahead among men by just three points (48 percent to 45 percent).

Clinton also has the advantage among African Americans (86 percent to 9 percent), non-white voters (76 percent to 16 percent) and those ages 18-34 (54 percent to 36 percent).

Trump, meanwhile, holds the edge among independents (41 percent to 36 percent) and white voters (51 percent to 40 percent). But there is a difference among whites: Those without college degrees prefer Trump by a 56 percent-to-36 percent margin, while those with college degrees break evenly between Trump and Clinton, 45 percent to 45 percent.

Access Hollywood video of Trump is the 4th-most recognized story in history of NBC/WSJ poll

As for the 2005 video of Trump talking about women in vulgar and crude terms, 95 percent of voters say they saw, read or heard about that news story - which is the fourth-most recognized story in the history of the NBC/WSJ poll (behind the Orlando terrorist attack, the spread of Ebola in West Africa and the Ebola patient in Dallas).

But just 32 percent say that the video disqualifies Trump from being president and believe that he should with withdraw from the race, versus 53 percent who disagree.

Did the debates make a difference?

Additionally in the NBC/WSJ poll, 31 percent of voters said the presidential debates made them more likely to back Hillary Clinton, versus 14 percent who said they made them more likely to support Trump.

Fifty-two percent said the debates made no difference.

The final presidential debate takes place on Wednesday, Oct. 19.

Trump leads (narrowly) on trade, economy; Clinton ahead on being a commander-in-chief and women's issues

On the issues, more voters say Trump would do a better job protecting America's interests on trade issues (by 46 percent to 43 percent). And he holds a one-point advantage on dealing with the economy (44 percent say Trump would do a better job, compared with 43 percent who say Clinton would).

But Clinton has the advantage on the other issues - making appointments to the Supreme Court (48 percent to 38 percent), changing the country for the better (44 percent to 36 percent), being a good commander-in-chief (52 percent to 32 percent) and dealing with issues of concern to women (67 percent to 17 percent).

When it comes to personal characteristics, Clinton leads on having the right temperament to be president (59 percent to 23 percent), while Trump narrowly leads on being honest and straightforward (38 percent to 34 percent).

Democrats don't look as strong down the ballot

Despite Clinton's double-digit lead over Trump in the presidential race, the NBC/WSJ poll finds a closer contest down the ballot. Forty-six percent of registered voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, while 44 percent want a Republican-controlled Congress.

That two-point advantage for Democrats is down from six points in the earlier NBC/WSJ poll (48 percent to 42 percent).

Among likely voters in new poll, 47 percent want a Democratic-controlled Congress and 44 percent want a GOP-controlled one.

By a 53 percent-to-40 percent margin, the poll also finds registered voters saying they'd be more likely to support a Republican candidate who will be a check and balance to Hillary Clinton and congressional Democrats, versus a Democratic candidate who will help Clinton and Democrats pass their agenda.

53 percent approve of Obama's job as president

Finally, the NBC/WSJ poll finds President Obama's job-approval rating at 53 percent among registered voters, which is up one point from last month.

It’s the six-straight month where the president's rating has been above 50 percent in the poll, and it's his highest rating since Dec. 2012, after he won re-election four years ago.

The NBC/WSJ poll was conducted Oct. 10-13 of 1,000 registered voters - via both cell phones and landline phones - and it has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points. Among the poll's 905 likely voters, the margin of error is plus-minus 3.3 percentage points.

October 11, 2016

Latest polls for Clinton vs. Trump in key swing states [Oct 10 wk]

As the poll shows (wk of Oct.10) Clinton is ahead in 6 out of seven swing states. The exception is Iowa. The graph is interactive, you need to hover your cursor over the graph to get more information. The numbers are not frozen so if there was to be another poll this week, those numbers would change to represent the latest.

We show these particular states because if Trump cannot win on those states he wont be able to win the election. Because Clinton is ahead on the national polls of all likely voters she needs to win 3 or so of those to have the election. Swing states are the ones in which you can’t predict how they vote as in being democrat, republican or independent.  The average poll is one that takes all the polls and mathematically gets the average, this is consider very accurate because it takes into account all national polls for november’s Presidential election.  

October 9, 2016

Polling Just before Presidential Debate 10/9

Democrat Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump in the key battleground states of Florida and Pennsylvania, including by double digits in the Keystone State due to her strength in Philadelphia and its suburbs, according to two brand-new NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls.

In Florida, Clinton is ahead of Trump by three points among likely voters, 45 percent to 42 percent, which is within the poll's margin of error. Libertarian Gary Johnson gets 5 percent, and the Green Party's Jill Stein gets three percent.

In a head-to-head matchup in the Sunshine State, Clinton holds a two-point edge over Trump among likely voters, 46 percent to 44 percent. The NBC/WSJ/Marist poll of Florida was conducted Oct. 3-5 - well before Hurricane Matthew hit the state.

In Pennsylvania, Clinton's lead over Trump is 12 points among likely voters, 49 percent to 37 percent, with Johnson at 6 percent and Stein at 4 percent. Her advantage is an identical 12 points in a two-way contest, 51 percent to 39 percent.

Both polls were conducted before Friday's bombshell release of audio of Trump speaking in 2005 about groping and kissing women.

It would be virtually impossible for Trump to win the White House if he loses both states, especially Florida.

"In terms of pathways to 270 [electoral votes], it's hard to see how Trump can win the White House without carrying this state," says Lee Miringoff, director of Marist College's Institute for Public Opinion.

Examining the racial, geographical and educational divide

In both states, Clinton's lead is due to her performance with minorities, whites with college degrees and urban voters.

In Florida, Clinton runs ahead of Trump in a two-way contest among African Americans (86 percent to 6 percent), Latinos (63 percent to 27 percent), likely voters ages 18-29 (63 percent to 31 percent) and women (51 percent to 41 percent).

Trump, meanwhile, leads among men (48 percent to 41 percent) and whites (55 percent to 36 percent). But there is an important difference here: Trump is ahead among whites without a college degree by a 62 percent-to-29 percent margin.

Yet among whites with a college degree, Trump is up by only four points, 48 percent to 44 percent.

Geographically, Trump holds the advantage in Florida's Panhandle (52 percent to 42 percent) and the Tampa area (49 percent to 39 percent), while Clinton is ahead in the Miami area (57 percent to 34 percent) and Orlando (50 percent to 39 percent).

In Pennsylvania, Clinton has equally large leads among African American likely voters (88 percent to 6 percent) and those ages 18-29 (54 percent to 37 percent. But she holds a nearly 2-to-1 advantage among whites with a college degree (58 percent to 32 percent).

In Philadelphia, Clinton leads Trump by a whopping 74 percent-to-21 percent margin, and her advantage is almost as big in the Philadelphia suburbs, 64 percent to 28 percent.

Trump, by contrast, holds the edge in the western part of the state (45 percent to 42 percent) and in the Northeast (49 percent to 39 percent).

Rubio leads Florida Senate race, Toomey trails in Pennsylvania

Both Florida and Pennsylvania also feature important Senate contests.

In Florida, incumbent Republican Sen. Marco Rubio leads Democratic challenger Patrick Murphy by two points among likely voters, 48 percent to 46 percent.

And in Pennsylvania, incumbent GOP Sen. Pat Toomey trails Democratic challenger Katie McGinty by four points - McGinty gets 48 percent among likely voters, while Toomey gets 44 percent.

The NBC/WSJ/Marist poll of Florida was conducted Oct. 3-5 among 979 registered voters (which has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points) and 700 likely voters (plus-minus 3.7 percentage points).

The NBC/WSJ/Marist poll of Pennsylvania was conducted Oct. 3-6 among 971 registered voters (plus-minus 3.1 percentage points) and 709 likely voters (plus-minus 3.7 percentage points). 

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