Showing posts with label Geography/GeologyPopulation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Geography/GeologyPopulation. Show all posts

January 10, 2013

The World Will Get Break After 2070 POpulation Will Decline

End of the world catastrophe scenes are as silly as they are fascinating. Acid rain was once a concern, but it proved mostly imaginary. The ranges of forests it was supposed to destroy in Germany were if anything fertilized by such rain. And so it seems all this sci-fi hoopla about the world overpopulating is just as much nonsense. Perhaps there is some sense of global capacity built into our reproductive instincts? Whatever the case, research shows that this year we hit our 7 billionth living person, and that when we hit our 9 billionth, the population will actually start to shrink.

The reason for this is that birthrates are down everywhere. In Germany, the rate is 1.36, whereas 2.1 is what is required to sustain a population. Spain is at 1.48 and Italy 1.4. Even American, who depended on immigrants and their tendencies to have lots of babies have seen lower birth rates in those immigrants.  The Pew Research Center found that immigrants fell from 102 per 1,000 women in 2007 to 87.8 per 1,000 in 2012, leaving this overall U.S. birthrate at only 64 per 1,000 women — statistics given by an article in Slate magazine — and that is not enough to sustain us.

Mexico dropped from 7.3 to 2.4, India from 6 to 2.5, Brazil from 6.15 to 1.9. The explanation given is explained under the term “demographic transition.” 
 “For hundreds of thousands of years,” says Warren Sanderson, professor of economics at Stony Brook University, “in order for humanity to survive things like epidemics and wars and famine, birthrates had to be very high.” When death rates decreased, we see “a shift between two very different long-run states: from high death rates and high birthrates to low death rates and low birthrates.” This predicts what we see now, that most the world — more than half — is producing lower than sustainable population. Along these lines, the world is likely to meet its apogee in 2070, and then start to shrink a little.

The writer of the Slate article follows some linear thinking into some silly conclusions that we might go extinct if we keep this up, as if there wasn’t give and take on these matters, as if we should make a reverse-Malthusian conclusion. “If things continue at the rate they are going….” But they never do. The species and nature itself offers a system of checks and balances which should save us all from reverting to any draconian population control methods like China, and also, hopefully, keep us from creating any fertility factories.

Posted by  Filed under Breaking News,Health. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.

November 14, 2012

For A Different Election a Software Engineer Develops a Pink Map

The Purple Election Map

The purple election results map. (Photo: Chris Howard/Facebook)
Software engineer and illustrator Chris Howard created this map of the presidential election results adjusted by population density to produce a map that shows a far different picture of the country than we normally see in the simple red and blue electoral map. Mr. Howard posted his map on Facebook this weekend with a note explaining that “most of the country is some shade of purple, a varied blend of Democrat blue and Republican.”
“America really looks like this,” wrote Mr. Howard. “What really stands out is how red the nation seems to be when you do not take the voting population into account; when you do so many of those vast red mid-west blocks fade into pale pink and lavender (very low population).”
Though people have long been creating purple variations of the electoral map, Mr. Howard said he was inspired to create his map by another series of maps made by Mark Newman, a physics professor at the University of Michigan’s Department of Physics and Center for the Study of Complex Systems. Mr. Newman’s maps used the electoral maps to create cartograms showing the size of different states  based on population rather than land area. To create his map, Mr. Howard said he used “the actual numbers of votes for each party overlaid with population maps from Texas Tech University and other sources.”
View a larger image of Mr. Howard’s map compared with the electoral map, a map showing results by county and a third map that displays a shade indicating the percentage won by either party rather than simple red or blue below.

October 19, 2012

New Gallop on LGTB} If Numbers Keep Dropping There Would Be Nobody Left to Marry

Confused? It was the poll

The new number on this particular survey is a very low number. These were people that were interviewed and where asked the magical question.  Which means these are people that had to be out. Keep in mind that this is not how many gay people there are in the United States. There have been numbers thrown about on these particular subject for ever.  30 years ago 20% was being thrown about. The religious people and the anti gay government officials decided that the number of 20% was too high and 10% had to be the maximum number. Probably being that they had the other 10% hidden in their closet,  20% was way too much. I remember when the politicians against gays serving in the military and using the number of 10% and using that number to say that was not enough of us to make 'special rules’. Not long ago I was listening to people say 5%, again cut in half.

 Now that many LGTB community wants out of the closet and thus wants the identical same rights as straight citizens of this country, including gay marriage; The number has been coming down as low as 2%. The Gallop survey now indicates that the number of adults, gay, lesbian and  transgender all mixed together is 3.4%  For that they asked121,000 people of a population of 3.5 Million people as 2012 (Wikipedia). 121,000 is a large number of subjects, but you can’t take that number based on the gay question as the only factor. Admitting that you are gay is a BIG problem for a LARGE amount of people.
Being that the number of us keep dropping, I think that by the time we get the right to marry our partners, there would be none of us left.
I have nothing against the Gallo polls. They are very respectable and the number they used on this survey is rather large as far as other surveys go. We also know they are the ones that follow the political races in this country(along with the media) and know how many times they have been wrong. More times wrong than right. Asking people a question either over the phone, on the street or in an office does not say a lot about the honesty of the answer. We know the police does not consider eye witness the best tool to convict a defendant. They would rather have finger prints, DNA or other non human tool. The reason for that is that human beings are not honest all the time and memories and opinions change all the time.
One thing is to ask wether you are voting Obama or Romney and another one is to ask if you are one of the hated, bullied and killed for just being you.
I really don’t think that anyone except some of the LGTB community want to really know how many of us there are. They know that there would be a bunch of hearts stopping if something to the real number came out. For instance when the government wanted to know the population of whites, hispanics, blacks, etc. They do a census. For the LGTB population the government keeps refusing to put the question on the census. It wont be 100 percent correct, but it will be a tool that would encourage people to tell the truth.  I think sitting secure in  their own homes without anybody to judge will encourage a more honest  behavior.
The only positive and accurate about this survey is that it shows that gays are not all anglo- saxons.
(Adam Gonzalez, Publisher for adamfoxie*)
I’m posting below the first report to hit the net today:

A new Gallup survey, touted as the largest of its kind, estimates that 3.4 percent of American adults identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual or transgender.
The findings, released Thursday, were based on interviews with more than 121,000 people. Gallup said it is the largest study ever aimed at calculating the nation's LGBT population.
The report's lead author, demographer Gary Gates of the UCLA School of Law's Williams Institute, said he hoped the findings would help puncture some stereotypes about gays and lesbians while illustrating the diversity of their community.
"Contemporary media often think of LGBT people as disproportionately white, male, urban and pretty wealthy," he said. "But this data reveal that relative to the general population, the LGBT population has a larger proportion of nonwhite people and clearly is not overly wealthy."
According to the survey, which was conducted between June and September, 4.6 percent of African-Americans identify as LGBT, 4 percent of Hispanics, 4.3 percent of Asians and 3.2 percent of whites. Overall, a third of those identifying as LGBT are nonwhite, the report said.
There was a slight gender difference — 3.6 percent of women identified as LGBT, compared to 3.3 percent of men. And younger adults, aged 18 to 29, were more likely than their elders to identify as LGBT.
One striking difference: among 18-to-29-year-olds, 8.3 percent of women identify as LGBT, compared with 4.6 percent of men the same age.
In contrast to some previous, smaller studies, the Gallup survey found that identification as LGBT is highest among Americans with the lowest levels of education. Among those with a high school education or less, 3.5 percent identify as LGBT, compared with 2.8 percent of those with a college degree and 3.2 percent of those with postgraduate education.
A similar pattern was found regarding income groups. More than 5 percent of those with annual incomes of less than $24,000 identify as LGBT, compared to 2.8 percent of those making more than $60,000 a year.
Among those who report income, about 16 percent of LGBT individuals have incomes above $90,000 per year, compared with 21 percent of the overall adult population, the Gallup survey found. It said 35 percent of those who identify as LGBT report incomes of less than $24,000 a year, compared to 24 percent for the population in general.
Regarding family status, 20 percent of LGBT individuals said they are married and an additional 18 percent are living with a partner; they weren't asked about the gender of those spouses and partners. Among non-LGBT Americans, 54 percent are married and 4 percent are living with a partner, the report said.
The survey found that 32 percent of both LGBT and non-LGBT women have children under 18 in their home. By contrast, 16 percent of LGBT men had children in their home, compared to 31 percent of non-LGBT men. Gates said he was struck by the geographical spread of the LGBT population — pegged at 3.7 percent in the East, 3.6 percent in the West, 3.4 percent in the Midwest and 3.2 percent in the South.
The results were based on responses to the question, "Do you, personally, identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual, or transgender?" included in 121,290 Gallup interviews conducted between June 1 and Sept. 30.
The overall 3.4 percent figure is similar to a 3.8 percent estimate made previously by Gates after averaging a group of smaller U.S. surveys conducted from 2004 to 2008.
By David Crary; AP National Writer

Read more here:

January 21, 2012

NYC } Ratio of Single Men to Single Women

​Should you be one of those people who assumes that your dating "issues" in the city stem from the fact that there are fewer men than women here, there's a map for that, and, no, we're not saying you have issues. But there is an interesting new twist. Economists at the NYCEDC ran the numbers, and, according to the latest census data, New York City's population is 53% female and 47% male. But, of unmarried singles between 20 and 34, men actually outnumbered women, 742,400 to 729,500. As for people over 34, they are geriatrics too old for love and unworthy of acknowledgment.
Hear that? More men than women! WORLDS...SHIFTING...
There's also a cool map breakdown (above) of the neighborhoods that, we suppose, could be used to target the singles of interest to you.
On the Upper East Side, young single women outnumber young single men nearly 2 to 1. Jackson Heights, Queens is on the other end of the spectrum--where there are 1.7 males for every female. The neighborhoods with ratios of 1 to 1? Jamaica, Queens and Pelham Gardens in the Bronx.
Gender normative map translation: Pink is lady-ville. Blue is boy-town.
Also fascinating: 21- and over-age New Yorkers spend an average of $140 a year at bars, "which is 58% higher than in the United States as a whole" and maybe our bar tab for a week, if we're being realistic. Map that, NYCEDC!

October 30, 2011

The seven-billionth human will be born on Monday-but Pop seems to be Dropping



SAN ANTONIO, Tex (Reuters) -- The seven-billionth human is expected to be born on Monday, but an expert who helps do the counting says that event comes as the Earth undergoes a demographic shift toward slower population growth.
According to the United Nations Population Fund, the seven-billionth child is most likely to be a boy born in India or China, but the trend of fertility in the longer term is in a different direction, says Dudley Poston, a professor of sociology and demographics at Texas A&M University,
For the first time ever, the human reproduction rate is slowing, in many places slowing significantly, and the slowing growth is not only happening in Europe and Japan, he says.
"Once your fertility rates drops below two, it is very very hard to get it to go back up again," Poston told Reuters.
"We now have 75 countries in the world where the fertility rate is below two," meaning the average woman is having fewer than two children.
That is far below the rate of 2.2 to 2.3 considered optimal to hold the population steady, factoring in the number of females who have no children or who don't live to reach childbearing age.
While he says Europe and the industrialized democracies of east Asia are the 'poster children' for demographic shift, low birth rates are also being seen in Brazil, in China, and in the Islamic Middle East, where the fertility rate in the United Arab Emirates is 1.8.
"Japan is losing more people today than they're gaining," Poston said. "South Korea has an alarmingly low fertility rate, 1.1."
Not long ago, the opposite was true. In 1970, the average fertility rate worldwide was 4.5, leading to predictions of demographic doom in books like Robert Silverberg's "The World Inside" and Stanford University biologist Paul Ehrlich's "The Population Bomb."
They saw a world where hoards of wildly reproducing humans desperate for dwindling food supplies would destroy social cohesion and spark wars and societal unrest.
But a funny thing happened on the way to population Armageddon. Poston says the fastest growth period in the history of the world was in the mid to late 1960s, which prompted dystopic predictions.
"When Paul Ehrlich wrote that book the world was growing at about 2 percent per year," Poston said. "Now we're growing at about half that."
Poston says a combination of factors led to what may be the most significant demographic shift ever. In the industrialized West, improved methods of birth control and greater opportunities for women in the workplace and in society meant the end of 5,000 years of women generally being considered society's baby-makers.
In China, there has been aggressive enforcement of a 'one child' policy, drastically reducing population growth rates, and leading to a surplus of males.
Worldwide, urbanization has reduced the need for large families beneficial in rural agricultural areas.
Reasons for significant growth rate declines in places like Iran, where the rate has fallen from 7.0 in 1974 to 1.9, remain more of a mystery, but Poston says they probably can be traced to cultural changes that can be very difficult to reverse.
"We have been growing very, very fast in the world and now we're starting to slow down."
Poston says it took until about 1800 for the earth to see its one billionth resident, as high fertility rates were effectively countered by high infant mortality rates, diseases, and nearly continuous warfare that generally cut down men at the height of their most active reproductive years.
The march of science led to a decrease in infant mortality and deadly diseases, and combined with a continued high fertility rate led to a huge population bloom. The two billionth human was born in 1930, and the six billionth in 1999.
Moreover, the warfare and constant societal violence that helped keep the population in check has retreated, Harvard University psychologist Steven Pinker says in his recent book "The Better Angels of our Nature."
"It is really only in the countries of sub Saharan Africa where fertility is still high...," Poston said, "but even in several of these countries there have been fertility declines in recent years."
So Poston says while it took 12 years to reach Monday's seven billion mark from six billion, it will take 14 years to reach eight billion -- the first time in history a billion milestone has taken longer to reach than the one before -- and then 18 years to reach nine billion.
Thus far the world has been able to produce enough food to feed its new mouths. The U.N. says world food production per person today is 41 percent higher than in 1961, thanks largely to the "Green Revolution" in farming which brought higher yields not only to Western farmers, but brought traditional subsistence farming in Africa and Asia into the modern age.
Food production per capita in India today is 37 percent higher than fifty years ago, according to the World Bank.
Some still fear food shortages and price rises, and problems with supplies of other commodities like oil.
"(Whether) the rate of farm production slow down or level off is uncertain," Poston said. "But right now there is no difficulty."
And the trends may bring problems of a different sort, he said, predicting the world will begin seeing the impact of declining populations in as little as 40 years.
"That is going to be the issue in the future," Poston said. "We are going to have to start thinking for the first time in human history about fewer."
That will mean thinking in an entirely new way about everything from resource production to old age pensions, he said.
(Editing by Jerry Norton)

Featured Posts

Thai Cabinet Backs Allowing Same Sex Unions

                Patpicha Tanakasempipat BANGKOK (Reuters) - Thailand’s cabinet approved a civil partnership bill ...