Showing posts with label Survey. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Survey. Show all posts

March 26, 2018

New YouGov Survey Indicates Americans See Russia and North Korea as Greatest Thread to US



 



Americans have become increasingly worried about Russia. In the latest Economist/YouGov Poll, one in three regards Russia as an enemy, more than at any time since the start of the Trump Administration. And there is relatively little partisan disagreement on this. Last February, only 21% of the public (and just 14% of Republicans) called Russia an enemy of the US.
The public believes that the President sees Russia in a more favorable light than they do. As many say that the President thinks Russia is a friendly country as think that he sees it as unfriendly. Since the Inauguration the White House has imposed sanctions on Russia, and the investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 election has produced new information about Russian use of social media in the campaign as well as indictments. But President Trump’s kind words early in his administration for Russia and its leader, Vladimir Putin, continue. The President’s recent call to Vladimir Putin to congratulate him on his election victory (a call his advisers warned him not to make) may underscore many people’s belief that the President views Russia positively. 
Americans take a different view of Putin: only 12% have a favorable opinion of Putin, 67% are unfavorable.    
The recent poisoning of a former Russian spy in the United Kingdom has also affected attitudes. A third of Democrats and Republicans have heard a lot about this and blame Russia; Americans overwhelmingly believe the Russian government ordered the attack.
Russia is not only seen as an unfriendly country; two in three regard it as a direct threat. Only North Korea is seen by more people as an immediate and serious threat to the US. When asked which of several country poses the greatest threat to the United States, North Korea and Russia rank at the top, above Iran and China. For Republicans, North Korea is the greatest threat, for Democrats, it is clearly Russia. 
The President’s kind words for the Russian leader may complicate the current probe into Russian interference in the 2016 election. While the President claims “no collusion,” the administration has extended the sanctions on some Russian individuals and entities, and the Special Counsel has indicted Russian nationals for interference. 
That investigation into the 2016 election is viewed differently by Democrats and Republicans. Two-thirds of Democrats say it is a serious attempt to find out what happened, while 60% of Republicans say it is politically motivated. 
But the percentage that believes the President has attempted to influence the investigation is creeping upwards. This week, after the firing of FBI deputy director Andrew McCabe, nearly half the public think President Trump has tried to do so, and one in four say he has not.
Most Republicans believe the President has not attempted to influence the investigation, but that percentage is lower this week than last. Overall, 39% believe the McCabe firing was an attempt to affect the investigation, but 27% believe it wasn’t – and the rest aren’t sure.
One firing that would upset most Americans would be the firing of Special Counsel Robert Mueller himself. Only 15% think the President should fire Mueller – and slightly more Republicans oppose firing Mueller than favor it. 

December 31, 2017

2017 Was a Good Year But Only if you are Republican



Was 2017 a good year for the world? Yes, if you’re a Republican

Two in three Republicans say 2017 was a good year compared to just a quarter in 2016 

2017 was a good year – at least for Republicans. In the latest Economist/YouGov Poll, 43% of Americans describe the past year as a good year for the world, up 14 points from what the public said at the end of 2016. However, that improvement is mostly the result of a GOP turn from negative to positive – today, two-thirds of Republicans say that 2017 was a good year. Last year, just 25% of Republicans believed 2016 was a good year for the world.




Independents also feel better about 2017 than they did about 2016; Democrats feel somewhat worse.

Last year, only 8% of Republicans said the United States had become more respected in the world in 2016. As for 2017, 48% of Republicans believe the country has become more respected. 80% of Democrats say it has become less respected.

Of course, much of the difference is due to the change in Administrations in Washington, and the replacement of Democratic President Barack Obama by Republican President Donald Trump. The partisan difference extends to the assessment of how 2017 has treated one’s own family. Last year, a majority of Republicans said that 2016 had been a bad year for themselves and for their families. This year, three-quarters of Republicans say the past year has been good for themselves and their loved ones.

As for Democrats, their assessment of how the past year has been for their families is about the same as the way they rated 2016 last December.
One area where Republicans and Democrats agree is how they view the state of American political discussion – it has become much more negative in the last few years. This year, 66% say political discussion had become more negative in 2017. Last year, 59% said that about 2016, and in 2015, 55% said the same.

That doesn’t mean that politics has become more interesting. Only 27% think that, which is a few points lower than the 32% who said so in 2016 and 2015.

As for the President himself, his approval rating during his first year in office has never risen above 43% in the Economist/YouGov Poll, and has not been above 40% in the last few months. This week, at the end of 2017, 38% approve, while 52% disapprove. Disapproval has increased since the beginning of the Trump Administration.



The President has generally met the public’s expectations for his first year in office, though just 23% say he has accomplished more than they expected of him. 29% say he has accomplished less than they expected. On specifics, many Americans are still waiting. Even though the tax cut bill just became law, only 49% say he has kept his promise to cut taxes. Even fewer, 31%, say his actions have succeeded in repealing Obamacare.

Looking ahead to how Americans expect history will judge Donald Trump as President, less than a third say he will be viewed as outstanding or above average, something two-thirds of Republicans believe will be the case. Half think the Trump Presidency will be seen as below average or even worse – 40% think he will be regarded as a “poor” president.


Assessment of President Obama near the end of his second term was slightly better, but like the public’s current judgment of President Trump, it was also partisan. At the end of 2016, 49% of Republicans thought President Obama’s performance would be regarded by history as poor. Now, 71% of Democrats say Donald Trump will be regarded as a poor President.

In fact, many think that President Trump will be a one-term President. Half the public, including 44% of Republicans, do not think he will be elected to a second term in 2020.



But despite GOP skepticism about what will happen in the 2020 election, two-thirds of Republicans still want the President to run for re-election then.


Image: Getty

YouGov Surveys on The Most Important Issues (make money with your opinion)

May 16, 2017

64% of US Adults Say Same Sex Marriages Should be Recognized



Sixty-four percent of U.S. adults say same-sex marriages should be recognized by the law as valid. Although not meaningfully different from the 61% last year, this is the highest percentage to date and continues the generally steady rise since Gallup's trend began in 1996.
Trend: Support for Gay Marriage Continues to Gain
The latest update, from Gallup's annual Values and Beliefs poll conducted May 3-7, comes nearly two years after the Supreme Court ruled that states could not prohibit same-sex marriage.
Since then, debates about same-sex marriage have faded somewhat from public discourse as LGBT rights advocates have focused on other issues, such as transgender bathroom access. But despite the 2015 ruling from the nation's highest court, legal and legislative attempts to protect or challenge same-sex marriage rights continue to bubble up in some states.
Americans' support for same-sex marriage has more than doubled since Gallup first polled on the issue in 1996, when 27% said it should be recognized as valid by the law. In 2004 -- weeks before gay weddings took place in Massachusetts after it became the first state to legalize same-sex marriage -- less than half of Americans (42%) felt such unions should be legally valid. Majority support for gay marriage would not come until May 2011, about a month before New York became the sixth state to legalize it. Since then, support for legal same-sex marriage has steadily climbed, with consistent majorities in favor of it since late 2012.
Support for Gay Marriage Grows Among Independents, Republicans
Over the past two decades, Democrats have almost always been the political group most likely to say gay marriages should be legally recognized. Among Americans who identify as Democrats, support first reached the majority level in 2004, as the issue was heavily politicized in that year's presidential election.
Majority support for gay marriage among political independents followed a few years later, in 2007. The latest poll finds that more than seven in 10 independents (71%) and Democrats (74%) support same-sex marriage.
In recent decades, many GOP leaders adamantly opposed gay marriage, but rank-and-file Republicans' support has nearly tripled since 1996. The current 47% of Republicans favoring it, although not at the majority level, is the highest for this group in the more than two-decade trend.
Support for Gay Marriage, by Political Party -- 1996-2017
Majority of Protestants Support Gay Marriage for the First Time in Trend
U.S. Protestants, including all non-Catholic Christians, are now about twice as likely to support gay marriage as they were in 1996 (55% vs. 27%). In recent years, some Protestant churches have moved toward supporting same-sex unions; however, this year's poll is the first time Protestant support has reached the majority level.
Meanwhile, a majority of U.S. Catholics have consistently supported same-sex marriage since 2011, which is at odds with the Roman Catholic Church's official position opposing same-sex marriage.
Support for Gay Marriage, by Religious Group -- 2004-2017
Nearly Three in Four Say Same-Sex Relations Should Be Legal
Americans have consistently been more likely to say that same-sex relations should be legal than to say that gay marriage should be legally valid, suggesting that the marriage question pushes a moral, religious or cultural boundary for some people that gay relationships do not.
When Gallup first polled on the legality of same-sex relations in 1977, 43% said they should be legal. Majority support for legal same-sex relations was first recorded in 2001, at 54% -- two years before the Supreme Court would strike down state laws that banned same-sex sexual activity. Since then, support for same-sex relations has grown, with 72% currently saying they should be legal.
Trend: Americans More Likely to Support Same-Sex Relations
Bottom Line
Though the Supreme Court has settled the legality of same-sex marriage, a third of Americans are opposed to it.
But support for gay marriage has gradually increased over the past two decades, reaching majority support with new groups, as it did with senior citizens in 2016 and Protestants this year. Republicans' support for gay marriage is also at a new high and could trend toward majority support in the near future.
Historical data are available in Gallup Analytics.
SURVEY METHODS
Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted May 3-7, 2017, with a random sample of 1,011 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on the total sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. All reported margins of sampling error include computed design effects for weighting.
Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 70% cellphone respondents and 30% landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas by time zone within region. Landline and cellular telephone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods.
Learn more about how the Gallup Poll Social Series works.

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