Showing posts with label poll. Show all posts
Showing posts with label poll. Show all posts

May 25, 2018

On New Gallup Poll Self Identified LGBT Has Risen 4.5%




                 Not More Gay Babies Born Gay But More LGBT Are Identifying as Such



  • The rise in LGBT identification mostly among millennials
  • LGBT identification is lower among older generations
  • 5.1% of women identify as LGBT, compared with 3.9% of men
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The percentage of American adults identifying as lesbian, gay, bisexual or transgender (LGBT) increased to 4.5% in 2017, up from 4.1% in 2016 and 3.5% in 2012 when Gallup began tracking the measure. The latest estimate is based on over 340,000 interviews conducted as part of Gallup's daily tracking in 2017. Gallup's LGBT estimates are based on those respondents who say "yes" when asked, "Do you, personally, identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual or transgender?" Extrapolation to the latest census estimate of adults 18 and older in the U.S. suggests that more than 11 million adults identify as LGBT in the country today.


U.S. Adults Identifying as LGBT, 2012-2017
Do you, personally, identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual or transgender?

201220132014201520162017
%%%%%%
% LGBT3.53.63.73.94.14.5
GALLUP DAILY TRACKING






The expansion in the number of Americans who identify as LGBT is driven primarily by the cohort of millennials, defined as those born between 1980 and 1999. The percentage of millennials who identify as LGBT expanded from 7.3% to 8.1% from 2016 to 2017, and is up from 5.8% in 2012. By contrast, the LGBT percentage in Generation X (those born from 1965 to 1979) was up only .2% from 2016 to 2017. There was no change last year in LGBT percentage among baby boomers (born 1946 through 1964) and traditionalists (born prior to 1946).
LGBT_Generational_2
LGBT identification is lower as age increases, although there is a particularly large jump between millennials and those in the next oldest generation, defined as Generation X. 


The roughly one-percentage-point increase (0.8 points) in LGBT identification among millennials from 2016 to 2017 is the biggest year-to-year increase among any age group since tracking began in 2012. In contrast, the percentage of traditionalists and baby boomers who identify as LGBT has declined slightly since 2012, while the LGBT percentage among Generation X is up slightly. Gender Gap in LGBT Identification Expands
Women continue to be more likely to identify as LGBT than men, and this gender gap expanded last year.
Overall, 5.1% of women in 2017 identified as LGBT, compared with 3.9% of men. The change among men over time has been minimal, with the LGBT percentage edging up from 3.4% in 2012 to 3.7% both last year and this year. On the other hand, the percentage of women identifying as LGBT has risen from 3.5% in 2012 to 5.1% today, with the largest jump occurring between 2016 and 2017.


Percentage of U.S. Adults Identifying as LGBT by Gender and Race/Ethnicity, 2012-2017

201220132014201520162017
%%%%%%
Gender
Male3.43.53.63.73.73.9
Female3.53.63.94.14.45.1
Race/Ethnicity
White, non-Hispanic3.23.33.43.53.64.0
Black, non-Hispanic4.44.04.64.54.65.0
Hispanic4.34.74.95.15.46.1
Asian, non-Hispanic3.53.34.24.94.94.9
GALLUP DAILY TRACKING



The LGBT percentage has risen among all race and ethnic groups since 2012, although not on an equal basis. Hispanics and Asians have seen the greatest increase, thus contributing the most on a relative basis to the uptick in LGBT identification nationwide. Whites and blacks have seen the least change.
The relative rank order of the LGBT percentages among these four race and ethnic groups has remained roughly the same over the last several years. At 6.1%, Hispanics continue to be the single race or ethnic group most likely to identify as LGBT, while the 4.0 % of whites who identify as LGBT remains the lowest. LGBT identification among blacks and Asians, 4.9% and 5.0%, respectively, is essentially midway between the estimates for Hispanics and whites.
LBGT Identification Highest Among Lower Income Groups
LGBT identification is more common among those with lower incomes, as has been the case consistently since 2012. The income gap is larger this year than it has been, with 6.2% of those making less than $36,000 a year in household income identifying as LGBT, compared with 3.9% of those making $90,000 or more. There are no major differences in LGBT identification by educational attainment, although the percentage of postgraduates who self-reported as LGBT is slightly lower than those with less formal education.


Percentage of U.S. Adults Identifying as LGBT by Annual Household Income and Educational Attainment, 2012-2017

201220132014201520162017
%%%%%%
Less than $36,0004.74.54.95.15.56.2
$36,000 to <$90,0003.13.43.53.94.04.7
$90,000 or more3.03.53.63.63.73.9
High school or less3.53.53.94.14.14.5
Some college3.83.93.93.94.14.7
College graduate2.93.33.53.64.14.4
Postgraduate3.33.63.73.93.94.3
GALLUP DAILY TRACKING

Bottom Line
This 2017 update on LGBT identification underscores two significant conclusions. First, the percentage of adults in the U.S. who identify as LGBT has been increasing and is now at its highest point across the six years of Gallup's tracking of this measure. Second, the increase has been driven almost totally by millennials, whose self-reports of being LGBT have risen from 5.2% six years ago to 8.1% today. Baby boomers and traditionalists have actually become slightly less likely to identify as LGBT since 2012, while the LGBT percentage among Gen Xers has risen only marginally.
As LGBT demographic expert Dr. Gary Gates noted in his report on Gallup data last year: "A variety of factors can affect the willingness of adults to identify as LGBT. These can include how comfortable and confident survey respondents feel about the confidentiality and privacy of data collected." Thus, it is possible that those in the younger generation who are LGBT are feeling increasingly comfortable over time with their sexual orientation, and thus are more likely to identify as such. Self-reported LGBT identification among older Americans is much more stable.
Self-identification as LGBT is only one of a number of ways of measuring sexual and gender orientation. The general grouping of these four orientations (lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender) into one question involves significant simplification and other measurement techniques which ask about each of these categories individually yield different estimates. Additionally, self-identification of sexual orientation can be distinct from other measures which tap into sexual behavior or attraction.
The value of the Gallup data is the use of a constant question wording over time and the largest yearly sample sizes of any effort to measure sexual and gender orientation in the U.S. (the Census does not regularly include such questions in its population updates). Therefore, the upward trajectory in these estimates of the LGBT adult population provides an important social indicator relating to this key aspect of contemporary American society.

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SURVEY METHODS
These 2017 results are based on telephone interviews with a random sample of 340,604 U.S. adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, collected from Jan. 2 to Dec. 30, 2017, as part of the Gallup Daily tracking survey and the Gallup-Sharecare Well-Being Index survey. Estimates for years 2013-2016 are based on similar sample sizes, with the estimate for 2012 about half as large. The margin of error for each year of data collection is ±0.1 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error for population subgroups are larger depending on sample size. All reported margins of sampling error include computed design effects for weighting.
The 2017 sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 70% cellphone respondents and 30% landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas by time zone within a region. Landline and cellular telephone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods.
Learn more about how Gallup Daily tracking works.

March 8, 2018

Quinnipiac U. Poll: TRUMP WORSE PRESIDENT Since The End of WW2






A plurality of American voters believe President Trump is the worst commander in chief since the end of World War II, a poll released Wednesday found.

The Quinnipiac University survey showed 41 percent of American voters think Trump is the worst of the 13 presidents who have held the office since 1945. The same poll also shows Trump with a 38 percent approval rating.

Twenty-one percent of those surveyed said Barack Obama was the worst president since World War II, and 10 percent picked Richard Nixon.

Ronald Reagan is considered the best post-World War II president by 28 percent of respondents, according to the poll, followed by Barack Obama with 24 percent, and Bill Clinton and John F. Kennedy with 10 percent each.

Trump ranks fifth on the list of best presidents since the end of World War II, the poll found, with 7 percent of voters choosing him.

Trump has frequently described his presidency in historical terms. He has touted the lowest black unemployment rate "in history" under his administration and said he signed the largest tax cut "in history" into law late last year.

He has also often said his administration accomplished more in its first several months than any president in history.

Trump's approval rating, however, has generally hovered in the mid- and upper-30s, according to Quinnipiac University polls.



October 6, 2017

Most Australian News Papers Believe Most of The Votes Are "Yes" For Gay Marriage

Australian newspapers are almost exclusively in support of a “yes” vote in the same sex marriage postal survey. 
Of the 11 daily metropolitan and nationals newspapers in the country, eight have published editorials since the postal survey was announced that are explicitly in favour of a “yes” response in the ballot. The Australian is the only newspaper to editorialise that it “cannot endorse such a proposal sight unseen”.
The NT News was first off the bat, dedicating its front page to the topic on August 9, the day after the postal plebiscite was announced. It ran the results of a poll showing most Territorians were in favour of legalising same-sex marriage, as well as an editorial saying that the majority of Australians supported it and lamenting the cost of a survey.
Hobart’s The Mercury followed the next day, referring to a series of editorials it ran last year in support of same-sex marriage, saying, “it is a vital move to end discrimination against same-sex couples”.
News Corp’s Daily Telegraph and The Advertiser both came down on the “yes” side in mid-September, and the Courier-Mail and the Herald Sun published editorials encouraging readers to vote “yes” in the ballot last week.
At Fairfax, The Sydney Morning Herald made its view known in Saturday’s paper, under the headline, “Why ‘yes’ deserves to win”. In Melbourne, The Age did the same on September 7, saying, “there is no justification for denying the right of two consenting adults in love to get married”. Sister paper, The Sunday Age, made the same declaration on its front page a few days later.
The Sunday Age and the NT News are the only two major daily papers to have made their declarations in bold front pages.
The Australian Financial Review‘s leader writer Luke Malpass told Crikey the paper’s general position was to support the “yes” case, but without urging readers to vote one way or the other. “We also suggest that those making the ‘yes’ case should take religious and some of the other objections to the change more seriously,” he said. The Fin first editorialised on the issue in 2015, saying, “In the end, the freedom of adults to decide should trump the other considerations, and gay marriage should be given cautious support.”
The West Australian did not respond to Crikey‘s request for comment, and does not appear to have editorialised specifically urging a “yes” or “no” vote from its readers. 
Crikey
 

July 17, 2017

Trump's New Approval Poll Show Numbers So Low Not Seen for 70 Years






Americans give President Donald Trump the lowest six-month approval rating of any president in polls dating back 70 years, punctuated by questions about his competence on the world stage, his effectiveness, the GOP health care plan and Russia’s role in the 2016 election.
Just 36 percent of Americans polled in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll approve of Trump’s job performance, down 6 points from his 100-day mark, itself a low. The previous president closest to this level at or near six months was Gerald Ford, at 39 percent, in February 1975. 
Sixty-three percent in this poll, produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates, say it was inappropriate for Trump’s son, son-in-law and campaign manager to have met with a Russian lawyer during the campaign. Six in 10 also think Russia tried to influence the campaign, and among those who say so, 67 percent think Trump aides helped, similar to results in April.
Yet the Russia controversy is just one on the list of Trump’s troubles. Just 38 percent say he’s making significant progress toward his goals; 55 percent think not. With no apparent help from the G-20 summit, two-thirds don’t trust him to negotiate with other world leaders -- or with Russian President Vladimir Putin specifically -- on America’s behalf. And about half say the country’s world leadership has grown weaker under Trump; just 27 percent say it’s gotten stronger. On his party’s signature campaign issue, health care, Americans by a 2-1 margin prefer Obamacare over the Republican plan to replace it, 50-24 percent. (Another quarter either want something else entirely, 17 percent, or are undecided, 9 percent.) “Strong” preference for the existing law surpasses strong preference for the GOP plan by 20 percentage points. Relevant to proposed GOP cuts in the growth of Medicaid, the public by a broad 63-27 percent says it’s more important to provide health care coverage for low-income Americans than to cut taxes.
 Temper
Trump also suffers from weak personal ratings, a topic to be covered in a further report Monday morning. But two factors temper the situation for the president to some degree: weakness in his Democratic opposition and greater strength on the economy.
On the first of these, only 37 percent of Americans say the Democratic Party “stands for something,” while 52 percent say it just stands against Trump. The perceived lack of an affirmative agenda weakens the Democrats’ efforts to capitalize on Trump’s failings.
On the second, Trump’s overall job approval rating (36-58 percent, approve-disapprove) is surpassed by his rating for handling the economy, 43-41 percent, roughly an even split. An unusually large 16 percent aren’t ready to rate his economic performance; it was only 3 percent for President Barack Obama at six months.
Nonetheless, Trump’s position is a difficult one. After six months in office, his job approval rating is 4 points lower than Obama’s career low, which came in his sixth year. And 48 percent “strongly” disapprove of Trump’s job performance, again slightly surpassing the strongest disapproval of Obama’s career, in his fifth year. (Strong disapproval of Trump on the economy, though, is far lower -- 29 percent, vs. a high of 50 percent in Obama’s case.)
From another perspective, Trump’s 58 percent disapproval is 7 points higher than the next-highest disapproval rating at six months, President Bill Clinton’s in 1993.
Asked to make their own comparison, half of Americans say Trump is doing a worse job than most previous presidents, vs. 23 percent who say he’s doing better (including 38 percent “much” worse vs. 17 percent “much” better). The rest, 24 percent, say he’s performing about the same as his predecessors in general.
Results are similar when it comes to the world stage: Americans by 48-27 percent say the United States has become weaker rather than stronger on the world stage under Trump, again with a substantial share, 23 percent, saying this has remained about the same.

Russia

Results on Russian interference show how attitudes about political issues can harden. Even though U.S. intelligence agencies have reported “with high confidence” that Russia sought to influence the 2016 election, four in 10 Americans either don’t think it happened (31 percent) or are unsure (9 percent), and recent disclosures haven’t changed that.
This leaves six in 10 overall who do think the Russians tried to influence the election; in this group, 72 percent think Trump benefited and, as noted, 67 percent think members of his campaign intentionally helped those efforts.
The number of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents who think that the Russians sought to influence the election, and that the Trump team intentionally helped them, has fallen from 18 percent in April to 9 percent now, indicating even stiffer GOP resistance to the idea. Among leaned Democrats it’s gone from 60 to 64 percent, not a significant shift.
As a combined total, the number of Americans who both think that the Russians tried to influence the campaign, and that Trump aides helped, is 41 percent -- very similar to the 40 percent who don’t think Russia was involved, or are unsure about it.
That said, two other overall results are less equivocal. Americans by 52-37 percent think Trump is trying to interfere with investigations of possible Russian influence, rather than cooperating. (It was 56-34 percent in early June, after Trump fired FBI Director James Comey.) And by 63-26 percent the public says it was inappropriate for Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr.; son-in-law, Jared Kushner; and campaign manager, Paul Manafort, to meet last June with a Russian lawyer who was said to have damaging information about Hillary Clinton.

Groups

Differences among groups mark the partisan nature of these times: At the most extreme, Trump ranges from a 90 percent approval rating among conservative Republicans to 5 percent among liberal Democrats. And leaving aside ideology, the gap is nearly as wide by partisanship alone -- 82 percent approval for Trump among Republicans vs. 11 percent among Democrats. The deciding vote, as ever, is cast by independents, and just 32 percent approve.
Results are telling among other groups as well. Trump’s approval rating is 12 points higher among men than women, 42 percent vs. 30 percent; just 27 percent among 18- to 29-year-olds vs. 42 percent among seniors; and 29 percent in urban areas vs. 40 percent in the suburbs and 44 percent in rural areas.
Sixty-one percent of evangelical white Protestants approve of Trump’s performance, as do 55 percent of white men who don’t have a college degree -- two mainstays of his election coalition. His support drops by 20 points among non-evangelical white Protestants vs. evangelicals, and by 24 points among college-educated white women vs. white men who lack a degree. Further, while 45 percent of whites overall approve of his work, that drops to 19 percent of Hispanics and 15 percent of blacks.
While generally less extreme, several of these are reversed in views of the Democratic Party. A quarter of Democrats (27 percent) say their own party “just stands against Trump”; so do 55 percent of independents, soaring to 82 percent of Republicans. Men are 15 points more likely than women to hold this opinion, and 58 percent of whites see the Democrats as simply anti-Trump, compared with 31 percent of blacks, long among the most loyal Democratic groups.
One other result is telling in a different way: Senior citizens are 11 points more likely than young adults to think Russia tried to influence the election, 66 percent vs. 55 percent. Seniors, of course, will have the sharpest recollection of the Cold War, which is supposed to be long over.


February 13, 2017

Gallop Says Americans See US Standing at Its Worst in a Decade



  • 42% of Americans believe the world views the U.S. favorably
  • 29% say world leaders respect Trump; 67% said same of Obama in 2009
  • Satisfaction with U.S. on the world stage is near record low
WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Americans believe the world at large sees the U.S. more unfavorably (57%) than favorably (42%), their worst assessment of the country's image in 10 years. A year ago, Americans' perceptions were more positive than negative.
Graph 1
These results are from a Gallup survey conducted Feb. 1-5, about two weeks into Donald Trump's presidency. The 42% favorable rating is one of the lowest since Gallup began asking this question in 2000 and may be attributable to the election of Trump, whose sometimes controversial statements and actions have rankled several world leaders. However, Americans' perceptions of the image of the U.S. abroad were marginally worse in 2007, when 40% thought the world viewed the nation favorably. At the time, the U.S. was embroiled in wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and President George W. Bush was highly unpopular.
The high-water mark for Americans believing the U.S. is viewed favorably was 79% in 2002, in the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the U.S.
Much of this year's drop in favorable perceptions of how the world views the U.S. is fueled by a precipitous slide among Democrats now that a Republican president is in office. Currently, 31% of Democrats think the world views the U.S. at least somewhat favorably, down from 68% last year. By contrast, Republicans' views have improved this year, to 54% from 39%, but not enough to offset the decline among Democrats.
Few Americans Believe Leaders Worldwide Respect Trump
Fewer than three in 10 Americans (29%) say leaders of other countries have respect for the new president, with 67% saying world leaders do not have much respect for him. When Barack Obama took office in 2009, the results were nearly opposite: 67% of Americans then believed global leaders respected the president, while 20% said leaders did not. At the time of the prior presidential transition in 2001, more Americans also believed George W. Bush was respected than believed he was not.
20170210_WorldPosition_chart
The 29% now believing that world leaders respect the president also represents a sharp drop from one year ago, in the last year of Obama's presidency. At that time, 45% said they believed the president was respected.
One reason for the drop is that fewer Republicans today think Trump is respected (60%) than Democrats in 2016 thought Obama was respected (79%).
Satisfaction With World Position Little Changed From 2016
Despite Americans' depressed perceptions of how world leaders view their new president, Americans' satisfaction with the country's position in the world hasn't changed much from last year -- 32% say they are satisfied with the position of the U.S. worldwide, down slightly from 36% in 2016.
Graph 3
The current reading continues a recent trend of relatively low satisfaction with the nation's global status, something that has persisted since the Iraq War troop surge in 2007.
While the Iraq War may have been a factor a decade ago, satisfaction has remained low even as U.S. involvement has wound down. The rise of the Islamic State and terrorism in general may be contributing to Americans' continued low level of satisfaction with their country's position in the world. Americans' widespread dissatisfaction with the way things are going in the U.S. could also affect their level of satisfaction with the nation's world standing.
Bottom Line
At the beginning of Trump's presidency, Americans' perceptions of how the world views the U.S. and its new president are significantly worse than they were a year ago -- and are on the low end for the past decade. This has been fueled by a sharp decline among Democrats who hold highly negative views of Trump's character and opening job performance.
But even a year ago, when Americans thought the world viewed the U.S. and Obama positively, Americans were still largely unsatisfied with the nation's global standing. This trend has been steadily negative for the past decade. Americans may not put much weight on how the rest of the world perceives the president in assessing whether they are satisfied with the United States' standing in the world. In addition to concerns about international matters such as Syria and terrorism, those views may be influenced by how they think things are going in the U.S., their low confidence in public institutions and their low trust in government. Such factors appear to have a marked effect on how Americans feel when they look beyond their borders.

by Art Swift
Historical data are available in Gallup Analytics.
SURVEY METHODS
Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Feb. 1-5, 2017, with a random sample of 1,035 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. For results based on the total sample of national adults, the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. All reported margins of sampling error include computed design effects for weighting.
Each sample of national adults includes a minimum quota of 70% cellphone respondents and 30% landline respondents, with additional minimum quotas by time zone within region. Landline and cellular telephone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods.

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