Live Posted Updates for Ukraine: Airport Massacre with Putin and His New General-Butcher

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 Redeployed Russian troops ‘face poor morale’ and are unlikely to enable a breakthrough, analysts say.

 

Russian forces have suffered a high amount of casualties in seven weeks of the war, decreasing their combat capabilities and dropping troop morale, analysts say.

 

Russian forces have suffered a high amount of casualties in seven weeks of the war, decreasing their combat capabilities and dropping troop morale, analysts say. Credit...Ivor Prickett for The New York Times

The Russian troops that have pulled away from areas around Ukraine’s capital in preparation for a renewed deployment to the east “are unlikely to enable a Russian breakthrough and face poor morale,” according to a Washington research group that is tracking the war.

In Izyum, an eastern city that Russian forces seized last week as a strategic staging ground for re-equipping its troops, Moscow “did not make any territorial gains” the past few days in an effort to link its soldiers in Crimea with Russia-backed forces in the eastern Donbas, the group, the Institute for the Study of War, said in a report released Saturday.

The majority of soldiers in some Russian units that have been withdrawn from the war are now refusing to return to the battlefield, the report said, citing a post from the Ukrainian General Staff on Friday. And soldiers in the field whose service contracts have expired are also being forced to keep fighting.

Neither of those claims could be independently verified, but they echo recent assessments by Western governments and other reports about the Russian military since the start of the war.

The institute’s report added that Ukrainian troops have continued to put pressure on Russian assaults in two besieged cities in the south, Mariupol and Kherson, which have been encircled since the early days of the war.

Faced with stalled offensives across the country, the Russian military is growing increasingly reliant on strikes from the air, the British Defense Ministry said in its latest assessment early Saturday.

Ukraine and its allies have blamed Russia for a missile attack on Friday at a train station in the eastern city of Kramatorsk that killed at least 52 people —  Russia has denied involvement, without providing any evidence to support its position.

That strike has emerged as a harbinger of what might be in store for the region, as airstrikes continued through the night in the east and south.

A pair of missiles landed in Odesa, a city on the Black Sea. No casualties were reported, but the Ukrainian military chief there, Maxim Marchenko, imposed a weekend curfew.

In central Ukraine, a missile strike targeted and damaged the infrastructure in the city of Myrhorod, injuring two people, the military reported in a telegram on Saturday.

The air and missile strike offered a clear indication of Moscow’s lack of progress on the ground, On Thursday, the Kremlin spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, admitted to recent “significant” Russian losses.

He conceded that the Russian military had lost more than 1,000 soldiers since the start of the invasion, far fewer than the estimates provided by United States officials. 

Matina Stevis-GridneffReporting from Brussels

The European Union reopened its embassy in Kyiv, after announcing Friday it considered the Ukrainian government able to guarantee “the full functioning of the state and government structures.” The ambassador, Matti Maasikas, posted a photograph on Saturday of the E.U. flag outside the diplomatic mission.

 

Matina Stevis-GridneffReporting from Brussels

In a statement condemning the deadly attack on civilians at a train station in eastern Ukraine, the European Union said that "attempts to hide Russia's responsibility for this and other crimes using disinformation and media manipulations are unacceptable," projecting certainty that Russia had carried out the attack deliberately targeting non-combatants, among them children.

 

Daniel BerehulakReporting from Borodianka, Ukraine

Ukrainian firefighters and first responders have continued their search for bodies and possible survivors among the rubble in Borodianka, near Kyiv. According to officials, at least 200 people are missing and presumed dead in the ruins of buildings throughout the city. 

Credit...Daniel Berehulak for The New York Times

Julian E. Barnes 

NATO shifted to providing Ukraine with longer-range weapons to counter the expected Russian offensive.Anti-aircraft missile systems on display at an exhibition in Zhukovsky, Russia, in 2014.Credit...Maxim Shipenkov/EPA, via Shutterstock

 

WASHINGTON — 

Slovakia’s decision to provide Ukraine with a Soviet-era S-300 air defense unit, a move made with the blessing of the United States, represents a new phase in the war, as allied countries look to help the Ukrainian military hold off an expected offensive from a newly concentrated Russian force and better prepare for a potentially long conflict.

In the early days of the invasion, NATO countries were quick to send short-range, defensive weapons to take out tanks and aircraft, including Javelin, NLAW and Stinger missiles, which were light, portable, high-tech, and easy to use with little training.

But now the allied governments have shown a willingness to send heavier weaponry more suited to the coming battle in Donbas, including tanks and longer-range defensive weapons such as the S-300s, a Russian-made surface-to-air system used mainly to attack enemy aircraft.

“Our approach is evolving based on realities on the ground,” Margiris Abukevicius, Lithuania’s vice minister of defense, said this week on a visit to Washington for diplomatic talks.

Western officials increasingly recognize that the war is likely to be a protracted conflict between two large armies, as neither side shows signs of wanting to give up the fight. That means that the kinds of arms Ukraine needs are changing. Kyiv’s commanders now need better air defense systems and longer-range weapons than they currently have to defend the bulk of the Ukrainian army in the country’s east.

So far, the Biden administration has not been willing to provide weapons that would allow Ukraine to strike deep into Russia, though some experts say that damaging Russian military airfields would improve Ukraine’s chances of withstanding a renewed offensive.

The Biden administration did say last week it will work with U.S. allies to transfer Soviet-made tanks to bolster Ukrainian defenses in the Donbas region. President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has pleaded with the United States and its allies to send tanks and warplanes.

Ukrainian forces are best prepared to use Russian-designed systems of the kind that Warsaw Pact countries deployed in the Cold War. NATO countries in the alliance’s eastern flank still have stocks of those weapons and have said they are willing to give them to Ukraine if they are provided with newer replacements.

The Russian-designed S-300s are a good example. Slovakia’s prime minister said on Friday that his country had provided the system to the Ukrainians, and the United States announced it would provide Patriot air defense systems to Slovakia, with other potential deployments to come. It remains unclear whether the S-300s have been delivered to the front lines yet.

The Ukrainians have the system in their inventory and already know how to use it. The S-300 will allow the Ukrainians to defend against several Russian aircraft attacking at once.

“This is additional capacity,” said retired Lt. Gen. Frederick B. Hodges, the former top Army commander in Europe. “It’s a very accurate system.”

Another European diplomat, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss military planning, said on Friday that NATO nations had not made final decisions on what more weapons to provide Ukraine. Allied war planners are working to assess the Ukrainian requirements in both the near term — to hold off the coming Russian offensive — and over the longer term since the war is likely to grind on for months or years.

The question is complicated. The most useful weapons are those that the Ukrainian military already knows how to employ effectively. The next best thing would be to find other weapons, the diplomat said, that the Ukrainians can be quickly trained to use.

Allied nations are ramping up training efforts in neighboring countries. European officials said it could make sense to provide weapons that require a training period of weeks, instead of days, as long as those weapons would make a difference on the battlefield.

The next few weeks are likely to prove to be a critical time in the war. European intelligence officials have said Mr. Putin is likely to try to achieve battlefield gains by May 9, when he is set to give a Victory Day speech to the Russian public, this year commemorating both the Soviet victory in World War II and the military operation in Ukraine.

Alexander Vindman, a retired Army Lt. Colonel and an expert on Ukraine, said the Ukrainians need more warplanes. About 70 percent of the Ukrainian air force is still operating, but the military command in Kyiv has been hesitant to use their hard-to-replace fighter planes for fear that they will be shot down.

In addition, Ukraine needs its ammunition stocks replenished and artillery systems to replace those destroyed by Russian attacks, he said. Small, medium-range armed drones could also prove critical. Such systems could be used to render Russian runways inoperable.

“That is a critical gap, the ability to strike deeper targets,” said Colonel Vindman, who was the chief witness against President Donald J. Trump in his first impeachment proceedings. “The Russians have the advantage of airpower. They have the advantage in long-range artillery. They have the advantage in short-range ballistic missiles. In order to level the playing field, we need to transfer more.” 

Kramatorsk’s mayor says he expects tens of thousands to remain, despite Russia’s expected to advance.

Ukrainian servicemembers stood outside of the Kramatorsk rail station, which was hit by a missile that killed at least 52 people on Friday. 

Ukrainian servicemembers stood outside of the Kramatorsk rail station, which was hit by a missile that killed at least 52 people on Friday.Credit...Andriy Andriyenko/Associated Press

The day after a missile attack on the Kramatorsk train station in eastern Ukraine killed at least 52 people, city workers were clearing debris from the closed station while military and police investigators continued to gather evidence, the city’s mayor said on Saturday.

“Our city and our citizens are trying to recover from this event, this crime,” Mayor Oleksandr Honcharenko told The New York Times by telephone after visiting the station.

He said that 4,000 residents had been gathered at the station on Friday, in the hopes of leaving the city, when the missile struck. Traumatized survivors of the bombing were evacuated by bus on Friday to safer cities.

Mr. Honcharenko said the missile strike had not created a sense of panic in Kramatorsk, a city whose prewar population of 220,000 has dwindled to about 70,000. He said he expected about 60,000 people to stay, despite the predicted Russian advance and government warnings to evacuate.

“We have not seen an influx of people trying to evacuate,” he said.

Most of the residents who wanted to leave have gone already, he said. Buses on Saturday morning organized for those without cars had left half-empty, taking out fewer than 400 people.

Mr. Honcharenko, 47, said many of those staying had remained in their homes when the fighting first erupted in the region eight years ago after Russia seized Crimea and gave support to separatist groups in the Donbas.

“They are not persuaded by yesterday’s attack to leave, because they have seen the fighting in 2014,” he said. “The only thing that will convince them to leave the city is if it comes under siege.”

Mr. Honcharenko, a former marketing director for a heavy machinery firm, said the city was focusing on stockpiling food, water, and medical supplies.

 

About 6,700 people fled through humanitarian corridors on Friday, a Ukrainian official says.

About 6,700 people were evacuated Friday through humanitarian corridors from parts of Ukraine either occupied by Russian forces or engulfed in fighting, according to a Ukrainian official responsible for the corridors.

 

 

The official, Tetiana Lomakina, said that a total of about 275,000 people had so far been evacuated to safer areas since the corridors were created this week. The safe passages were brokered in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine that were mediated by the International Committee of the Red Cross. 

Steven ErlangerReporting from Brussels

The general tapped to oversee Russia’s military campaign in Ukraine has the second-highest rank in the Russian army, just under marshal. Gen. Aleksandr V. Dvornikov, 60, was promoted to that rank two years ago. He was also named a Hero of the Russian Federation for his command of Russian forces in Syria. In September 2016, he was appointed commander of the Southern Military District, with responsibility for the restive North Caucasus. 

Stephen CastleReporting from London

Prime Minister Boris Johnson of Britain has traveled to Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, to meet with President Volodymyr Zelensky. Mr. Johnson, who has pushed Britain to take one of the most aggressive stances of any European power, is expected to talk about a new package of financial and military aid.

Credit...Ukrainian Presidential Press Office, via Associated Press

Jane Arraf 

A day after a train station attack, the city’s mayor says most residents are staying put.

 

A day after a missile attack on a train station in Kramatorsk killed at least 52 people, most residents were staying in the eastern Ukrainian city, the mayor said on Saturday.

Mayor Oleksandr Honcharenko told The New York Times that fewer than 400 people had boarded buses out of the city on Saturday.

He said that he expected about one-quarter of the 200,000 population to stay despite an expected Russian advance and that the city was preparing food, water, and medical supplies.

 

Italy plans to reopen its embassy in Kyiv as relative calm is restored.

 Italy’s embassy in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Feb. 13.Credit...Valentyn Ogirenko/Reuters

Italy plans to reopen its embassy in Kyiv immediately after Easter, the country’s foreign minister, Luigi Di Maio, said on Saturday, the Italian news service ANSA reported.

The announcement comes a day after the European Union said it would re-establish its diplomatic presence in the Ukrainian capital.

Like many countries, Italy shut its embassy in Kyiv when the war started, but a sense of relative calm is being restored there after a month of attacks as Russia moves its focus to the country’s east. Italy had moved its embassy temporarily to Lviv, in Ukraine’s west, which has remained on the outer edge of the war. 

Cora EngelbrechtReporting from Krakow, Poland

Some 132 bodies, many of them buried in mass graves, have been found in Makariv, a key battleground 40 miles west of Kyiv after Russian forces withdrew, the city’s mayor said in an interview with Ukrayinska Pravda on Friday. About 40 percent of the city has been destroyed, the mayor, Vadym Tokar, added. 

Gen. Aleksandr V. Dvornikov, right, with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, and Adm. Nikolai Yevmenov onboard a missile cruiser in the Black Sea in January 2020.Gen. Aleksandr V. Dvornikov, right, with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, and Adm. Nikolai Yevmenov onboard a missile cruiser in the Black Sea in January 2020.Credit...Pool photo by Alexei Druzhinin

  

 

Russia has reorganized the command of its flagging operations in Ukraine, selecting a general with extensive combat experience in Syria to lead the mission as the war enters a crucial new phase, a senior U.S. official said on Saturday.

Moscow has assigned Gen. Aleksandr V. Dvornikov, the commander of its southern military district, to oversee its overall operations in Ukraine, the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss confidential intelligence reports. The change was reported earlier by the BBC.

Russia had been running its military campaign against Ukraine out of Moscow, with no central war commander on the ground to call the shots, American officials said. That approach went a long way to explain why the Russian war effort has struggled in the face of stiffer-than-expected Ukrainian resistance, the officials said.

The lack of a unifying military leader in Ukraine has meant that Russian air, ground and sea units are not in sync. Their disjointed battlefield campaigns have been plagued by poor logistics, flagging morale and 7,000 to 15,000 military deaths, senior U.S. officials and independent analysts say.

It has also contributed to the deaths of at least seven Russian generals as high-ranking officers are pushed to the front lines to untangle tactical problems that Western militaries would leave to more junior officers or senior enlisted personnel.

Assigning General Dvornikov as the top battlefield commander aims to enhance coordination between various Russian units that previously were organized and commanded separately. It comes at a time when Russia has withdrawn thousands of forces from northern parts of Ukraine and is focusing on the country’s east and south, according to U.S. officials.

Rob Lee, a former U.S. Marine officer and Russian military specialist at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia, said General Dvornikov had commanded his district, which includes the Donbas in eastern Ukraine, since 2016.

“This also makes sense because the focus of Russia’s operation is now on S/SE Ukraine, which has been the Southern Military District’s responsibility,” Mr. Lee said in a Twitter message. 

Moscow vows retaliation as YouTube suspends broadcasts from Russia’s Parliament.

Already tense relations between YouTube and the Russian government ratcheted up another notch on Saturday, with officials demanding that the popular video streaming platform restore broadcasts from the Duma, the lower house of Russia’s Parliament.

Russia’s government telecommunications watchdog, Roskomnadzor, which two days earlier released a statement accusing YouTube of violating the Russian law against spreading “false information” about the war, demanded that the platform, which is owned by Google, both explain the move and reverse it.

Maria Zakharova, the spokesman for the Foreign Ministry, issued a more dire warning, calling on Russians to move quickly any content they wanted to preserve to a Russian platform. “YouTube just signed its own warrant,” she wrote on Telegram.

Google terminated the YouTube channel in order to comply with sanctions imposed by the United States, the company said, without providing additional details.