Gov. Christie Understands The Trends Are Moving Against Him on Gay Marriage

 By Dean Pagani  

Only On GoJo - Facing the prospect of a difficult re-election campaign, and a growing trend in states in his region toward the legalization of gay marriage, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie(R) appeared last week to give proponents an easy way past his veto; if they are willing to take it.

The offer has benefits for gay rights advocates and for Christie himself. Christie has said on countless occasions that he prefers the law as it stands in New Jersey – allowing for civil unions, but stopping short of marriage. At the same time, he has addressed the issue more with a shrug of his shoulders than the pounding of his fist.

The body language signals that Christie understands the trends are moving against him and he is not going to spend a great deal of his time, energy, or political capital fighting it. He is surrounded by states like New York, Connecticut, Delaware and Maryland that have moved – or are moving – past New Jersey on this issue (or taken a step back if you hold a different view).

The Wrong Side of Current Events

Northeast Republicans are traditionally more liberal on social issues and Christie understands there are great similarities between the views of his own constituents and voters living in adjacent states. Just in the last year, national public opinion polls show voters throughout the country dropping their automatic opposition to gay marriage in favor of one that favors privacy and a recognition that committed couples should have some basic universal rights regardless of gender.

A Quinnipiac Poll, released on January 19th, found 52% of New Jersey residents think same sex couples should have a right to marry. The same poll found that 65% don’t see gay marriage as a threat to marriage between a man and a woman. Fifty-three percent think denying marriage rights to gay couples constitutes discrimination.

Encouraged by last year’s dramatic approval of a gay marriage law in New York, with the help of a Republican controlled state Senate, New Jersey lawmakers are moving forward with legislation of their own this year. It seems quite plausible that the bill will make it to Christie’s desk, creating a problem for the first term governor, who has promised a veto, but doesn’t seem to want a fight. He gets much more worked up over budget and union issues.

If the bill comes to his desk he says he will feel compelled to reject it. So almost without being asked he offered a solution. Instead of deciding the issue in the state legislature – let the people decide. Put the issue of gay marriage to a referendum and he will not fight the outcome.

Assembly Speaker Sheila Oliver(D) was quick to dismiss the idea. When Christie argued that putting the issue of civil rights to a referendum would have saved bloodshed and lives, Oliver took him to task for making such a comparison. “It took legislative action to bring justice to all Americans, just as legislative action is the right way to bring marriage equality to all New Jerseyans,” she said in a statement.

National Implications

Christie’s gay marriage referendum idea could have several political benefits for the governor. First, it could push the issue off the legislative agenda and possibly well off into the future. Second, it could save him the political need to veto a bill most New Jerseyans are not that concerned about. Third, it could save him the embarrassment of an attempt to over-ride his veto, no matter the outcome.  Assuming a referendum would pass, it would be like the governor allowing a bill to become law without his signature. As a national candidate, he could say he is opposed to gay marriage, but claim he was overruled by his constituents.

As a major surrogate for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney(R), Christie talks often of President Obama’s lack of leadership. Ironically, the president and the governor seem to be in the same place on the gay marriage issue. Obama has not publicly endorsed it, but he has said, he is “evolving on the issue.” It’s a phrase carefully chosen to signal gay marriage supporters that he is probably for gay marriage, but not right now. Maybe not until he wins re-election.

Regardless of where you stand on the issue, it is fair to say both Obama and Christie are choosing to vote “present” for now.

Governorsjournal.com