October 29, 2016

Election Polling Ending Oct. 26

This is a summary of a YouGov/Economist Poll conducted October 22-26, 2016. The sample is 1376 Registered Voters with a Margin of Error of ±3.1%.

Where not specified otherwise, findings shown are for registered voters.

GENERAL ELECTION 

Who [did/will] you vote for in the election for President in November? 

Four-way presidential vote intention among Likely Voters:

  • Hillary Clinton (Democrat): 46%
  • Donald Trump (Republican): 41%
  • Gary Johnson (Libertarian): 4%
  • Jill Stein (Green): 2%
  • Other: 1%
  • Not sure: 7%
Among Registered Voters
  • Hillary Clinton (Democrat): 45%
  • Donald Trump (Republican): 41%
  • Gary Johnson (Libertarian): 4%
  • Jill Stein (Green): 2%
  • Other: 1%
  • Not sure: 8%
2-way follow-up: Respondents who selected Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, or ’someone else’ were asked the following question ’Which candidate do you prefer more, Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?’ Below those responses have been added to the support for Clinton and Trump from the initial question. 

Major party presidential preference among Likely Voters:

  • Hillary Clinton: 49%
  • Donald Trump: 46%
  • Someone else / Not sure / No preference: 5%
Among Registered Voters: 
  • Hillary Clinton: 48%
  • Donald Trump: 46%
  • Someone else / Not sure / No preference: 6%
What do you think is the most likely outcome of the presidential election with Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee and Donald Trump as the Republican nominee?
  • Clinton will win in a landslide: 31% (+3)
  • Clinton will win narrowly: 26% (-3)
  • Trump will win narrowly: 19% (0)
  • Trump will win in a landslide: 9% (+1)
  • Not sure: 16% (-1)

FAVORABILITY

Hillary Clinton 
  • Favorable: 41% (-1)
  • Unfavorable: 57% (0)
  • Not sure: 1% (0)
Donald Trump
  • Favorable: 38% (+2)
  • Unfavorable: 61% (-2) 
  • Not sure: 2% (+1)

CONGRESS 

Among Likely Voters:

If the election for Congress were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be voting for...
  • The Democratic Party candidate: 45% 
  • The Republican Party candidate: 40%
  • Other: 2% 
  • Not sure: 12%
  • I would not vote: 1%
Among Registered Voters:

If the election for Congress were being held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be voting for...
  • The Democratic Party candidate: 43% (0) 
  • The Republican Party candidate: 39% (+1)
  • Other: 2% 
  • Not sure: 14%
  • I would not vote: 2%

Approval of Obama as president 
  • Approve: 47% (-3)
  • Disapprove: 50% (+2)
Approval of Congress: 
  • Approve: 11% (-1)
  • Disapprove: 64% (-6)
  • Neither: 17% (+4)

Direction of the country: 
  • Right direction: 29% (+1)
  • Wrong Track: 62% (-1)

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