How is The Notoriously Volatile Justice Kennedy Would Vote on Gay Marriage
The Supreme Court will decide the fate of gay marriage in just a few weeks. Many pro-gay marriage people are counting on Anthony Kennedy's vote, but they might not actually get it.
Kennedy, who's notoriously volatile, will likely be the high court's swing vote for the gay marriage cases, one of which seeks to overturn the anti-gayDefense of Marriage Act.
The other case before the court involves a challenge toProposition 8, a voter-approved law that banned gay marriage in California.
Gay rights activists are counting on Kennedy's support because he wrote two landmark opinions on gay rights, including one striking down Texas' sodomy law.
The judge who initially struck down Prop 8 as unconstitutional even cited Kennedy's pro-gay opinions 15 times to bolster his argument for marriage equality.
But Kennedy's previous pro-gay opinions don't necessarily reveal how he'll vote in the two cases before the court now, UCLA Law professor Adam Winklertold Business Insider.
Neither pro-gay ruling he wrote involved marriage, and neither would have affected the lion's share of the United States as a decision for gay marriage would.
In Lawrence v. Texas, Kennedy struck down sodomy laws in Texas and 13 other states. His other major pro-gay decision struck down a Colorado law that barred its cities from passing their own laws that protected gays against discrimination.
A "bold ruling" saying there's a constitutional right to gay marriage would strike down the laws in 30 states that have already amended their constitutions to forbid gay marriage, Winkler says.
Kennedy has historically favored states' rights, and he might not issue a decision that would trample on the will of so many states at once.
"I think there are many people in the gay rights community who are fearful that Kennedy is not prepared to say that gay marriage is a constitutional right," Winkler said.
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