President Donald J. Trump has made scores of promises that, if kept during his second term in office, would significantly reshape American life, culture, economics, politics and diplomacy.
Over the course of the 2024 campaign, and since his election in November, Mr. Trump has offered a road map to what he calls an America First agenda and what his critics say would be the dismantling of democratic norms and a decades-old international order.
His promises range from the vague (“I will unite our country by bringing it to new and record levels of success”) to the specific (“You’re going to get full expensing. In other words, you have a one-year write-off”) to the vengeful (“I will appoint a real special prosecutor to go after the most corrupt president in the history of the United States of America, Joe Biden, and the entire Biden crime family.”) Many of his economic promises were aimed squarely at Americans who have struggled with the rising costs of housing, groceries and other goods.
He vows to shut down the southern border, pardon Jan. 6 felons, end foreign wars, slash taxes, ban transgender women from playing in girls’ sports, eliminate the Education Department, fire “woke” generals from the military and impose vast tariffs. He wants to eliminate regulations, impose the death penalty on migrants, re-evaluate the use of some vaccines, get rid of windmills and end financial incentives for the purchase of electric vehicles.
Taken together, those promises and many more are among the metrics by which history will judge Mr. Trump at the end of his second term as president.
That reckoning about Mr. Trump’s legacy was interrupted by Mr. Biden's presidency. In a speech last month, the president said he had “campaigned on an agenda of delivering profound change to Washington.” He promised to “embark on the most exciting and successful period of reform and renewal in all of American history.”
Whether his presidency lives up to those lofty aspirations will be determined by historians years after he leaves the Oval Office.
“Donald Trump was elected by American voters after being very candid about the sweep of the changes he wishes to make in our society, our structure of government and our role in the world,” said Michael Beschloss, a presidential historian. “During the campaign, he was also very open about using formidable presidential power to make that transformation. For both his supporters and his opponents, the result could be a crucial moment in American history.”
Economy, inflation, and cost of living
End inflation
“Starting on Day One, we will end inflation and make America affordable again.” Aug. 9, 2024 / Bozeman, Mont.
Voters’ frustration with inflation was one of the biggest factors in Mr. Trump’s victory. But many economists argue that Mr. Trump’s policy proposals, especially his promise to impose steep tariffs on imports, are likely to drive prices higher. Still, inflation has already dropped, and the Federal Reserve appears intent on bringing it down further.
Lower grocery prices
“Groceries, cars – everything. We're going to get the prices down.” Sept. 29, 2024 / Erie, Pa.
Mr. Trump began backing off this promise after he won, acknowledging the difficulty. It is possible that prices could drop for some individual items that have experienced particularly rapid increases. But few economists would want prices overall to drop. A broad decline in prices, known as “deflation,” is usually associated with economies mired in deep recessions.
Get the price of gasoline below $2 a gallon
“That means we're going down and getting gasoline below $2 a gallon.” Sept. 5, 2024 / Economic Club of New York
Energy analysts have suggested that there is no obvious way for him to fulfill this rather concrete promise, in part because gas prices are so hard to change. A president doesn’t directly control the oil companies, and the United States is already pumping more crude oil than any country in history.
Cap credit card interest rates
“While working Americans catch up, we're going to put a temporary cap on credit card interest rates at 10%.” Sept. 24, 2024 / Savannah, Ga.
The Trump campaign did not provide details on how such a plan, which Mr. Trump framed as an effort to help families struggling with rising housing and food costs, might work. Similar proposals to address credit card fees and interest rates have stalled in Congress. And efforts to address the issue through the federal government would most likely face legal challenges from banking and business groups.
Reverse U.S. auto industry declines.
“We will bring our auto-making industry to the record levels of 37 years ago, and we’ll be able to do it very quickly through tariffs and other smart use of certain things that we have that other countries don't.” Sept. 5, 2024 / Economic Club of New York
Automakers would need to more than double their production to reach 1980s levels, an unlikely prospect. Tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, as threatened by Mr. Trump, would disrupt the flow of parts and materials and would lead to higher car prices, analysts say. The auto industry’s biggest problem is lack of demand, which tariffs would not address.
Lower housing costs
By eliminating regulations “We will eliminate regulations that drive up housing costs, with the goal of cutting the cost of a new home in half.” Sept. 5, 2024 / Economic Club of New York
Banning unauthorized immigrants from obtaining mortgages “We also cannot ignore the impact that the flood of 21 million illegal aliens has had on driving up housing costs. That's why my plan will ban mortgages for illegal aliens.” Sept. 5, 2024 / Economic Club of NY
Opening up portions of federal land for housing “We're going to open up tracts of federal land for housing construction. We desperately need housing for people who can't afford what's going on now.” Aug. 15, 2024 / News conference at Bedminster, N.J.
The problem for Mr. Trump is that most of the most expensive and onerous regulations are imposed by state and local governments and outside the federal government’s control. Opening up federal land can be done — but immediate access to cheaper stock isn’t likely. Raw land needs roads, sewers, power and other basic infrastructure, a process that is usually measured in decades. And finally, while immigration has clearly raised the demand for rental housing, only a tiny fraction of mortgages were issued to borrowers without Social Security numbers in 2023; banning them would probably have little impact on access to homeownership for citizens.
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