Friday and What We are Looking at in International Issues

Published in Newsweek

 

President Donald Trump has doubled down on his proposal to move Palestinians from Gaza to Egypt and Jordan. It underlines not only the potential for a Middle Eastern shake-up, but a remaking of the world order.   The release of Israeli hostages from Gaza continues in fits and starts with Israelvoicing anger at scenes of the captives being pushed through the crowds in the Hamas-run territory. Three more hostages are due for release on Saturday.   The Philippines offered China a way to reduce South China Sea tensions with an offer to remove a U.S. missile system in exchange for stopping “aggressive” behavior. But it wouldn’t stop rival territorial claims.   As China and Russia’s strategic cooperation grows, Japan has highlighted the hundreds of times it scrambled jets against their intrusions last year.   Germany’s politics is changing rapidly with the anti-immigration Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), notably backed by Elon Musk, taking a major legislative winon border policies with the backing of the opposition Christian Democratic Union.   In Romania, Călin Georgescu, whose victory in last year’s canceled presidential election over allegations he benefited from Russian influence has called Ukraine a “fictional state”, in a sign of shifting sentiment.   Read on for takes on six of the most significant geopolitical stories you should know about today:

1. Russia May Expand Nuclear Arsenal to Counter US Efforts Need to know: Russia may expand and upgrade its nuclear arsenal if the United States continues to push ahead with the development of a missile defense system, a top Russian diplomat said in an interview. In an executive order this week, Trump directed the military to start "construction of the great Iron Dome missile defense shield." From Matthew Tostevin, senior global affairs editor at Newsweek: “Trump’s Iron Dome plan echoes the ‘Star Wars’ anti-missile defense plan of the Reagan era, which also stoked Soviet threats of expanding nuclear arsenals and developing countermeasures. Defensive innovations inevitably prompt efforts to counter them, but the success of one side or the other depends on the capabilities of untested technologies and the ability to fund their development and deploy them.”

2. Exclusive: China Warns US State Over COVID-19 Lawsuit: 'Farce' Need to know: China has vowed “resolute and effective measures” against the state of Missouri if it doesn't stop its “farce” of a lawsuit over the country's early handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. If the court rules in Missouri’s favor, Beijing will have to pay $25 billion in damages or risk the seizure of its assets in the Show Me State. From Micah McCartney, China economics reporter at Newsweek: “On Monday, at the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Missouri, the prosecution argued China's export ban on surgical masks and other PPE amounted to ‘hoarding.’ China did not send a representative to take part in the proceedings. The verdict is expected in the coming weeks.”

STAT • KEY NUMBER TO KNOW 12 — Israeli authorities announced Wednesday that they had arrested 12 Palestinians in East Jerusalem for celebrating the release of prisoners over the weekend under the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal.

3.  Trump Faces New Battleground in Latin America With China and Russia Need to know: While elected on an America-first, isolationist platform, Trump and his administration have quickly homed in on Latin America. That includes the successful strongarming of Colombia to take back deportees and the threats of action over the Panama Canal. From Ellie Cook, Newsweek's security and defense reporter: "The U.S. has somewhat neglected its neighboring continent to the South, and Russia, China, and Iran have been taking advantage. The new administration, not least Secretary of State Marco Rubio, are making clear signals they hope to do something about it, but with high-profile spats breaking out between President Trump and allies Colombia and Panama within days of his inauguration, it may be a harder task than some U.S. officials anticipate."

STATED • RECENT REMARKS FROM AROUND THE WORLD "They can go find another sucker Nation. There is no chance that BRICS will replace the U.S. Dollar in International Trade, or anywhere else, and any Country that tries should say hello to Tariffs, and goodbye to America!" — President Donald Trump has threatened BRICS countries, warning them against replacing the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency.

4. Philippines Turns Tables on China Over US Missile Complaints Need to know: President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. of the Philippines said he would remove the U.S.’s Typhon missile launcher from Philippine territory if China agrees to stops its "aggressive and coercive behavior" in the contested South China Sea. “Stop claiming our territory, stop harassing our fishermen and let them have a living, stop ramming our boats, stop water cannoning our people, stop firing lasers at us.” From John Feng, Asia editor for Newsweek: “The Chinese government’s public complaints about the U.S. Army missile system in the northern Philippines have for months fallen on deaf ears. Marcos’ offer to ‘make a deal with China’ appeared to be a witty riposte—he knows Beijing is unlikely to walk back longstanding claims to disputed territories in the Philippines’ exclusive economic waters.”

DAYBOOK • THE EVENTS THAT WILL MAKE NEWS Feb. 01 Trump to impose tariffs: US President Donald Trump has said he will impose 25% trade tariffs on Canada and Mexico on Saturday.

5.  A Failed Congolese Gamble on Romanian Mercenaries Need to know: Nearly 300 Romanian mercenaries recruited to fight on the side of the army in the Democratic Republic of Congo have surrendered to Rwanda’s M23 proxy rebel force following its assault on the eastern city of Goma. Hired soldiers were being paid around $5,000 (£4,000) a month, while regular military recruits get around $100, or sometimes go unpaid. From Matthew Tostevin, senior global affairs editor at Newsweek: “Governments in Kinshasa has repeatedly tried to hire mercenaries in the decades since independence in 1960 to battle rebel forces because of the lack of a coherent armed forces and the humiliating result has very often been the same. In the bigger picture, Congo now faces at least the occupation of a swathe of the east by the Rwandan-backed force, if not a war that could lead to the capital itself as Kigali tries again to impose its will on its much larger neighbor.”

6.  Impact of US Aid Freeze Felt Around the World Need to know: Field hospitals in Thai refugee camps, landmine clearance in war zones, and drugs to treat millions suffering from diseases such as HIV are among the programs facing the chop as Trump contemplates massive cuts to U.S. foreign aid. From Oksana Matiiash, board chair at Teach for Ukraine: "It's not just funding that's frozen. Behind every grant are real people working in unimaginable conditions."