Harris Leads Trump In Three Key States
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New surveys of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania taken this week offer the latest indication of a dramatic reversal in standing for the Democratic Party since President Biden abandoned his re-election bid.
THE NEW YORK TIMES/SIENA COLLEGE POLL
official headshots of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, smiling, positioned next to each other with a blue line under Harris and a red line under Trump
If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Kamala Harris and Donald Trump?
 |
Among likely voters. Shaded areas represent margins of error.
Harris Leads Trump in Three Key States, Times/Siena Polls Find - The New York Times
The margin of sampling error for the Michigan poll is plus or minus 4.8 points. For Pennsylvania, it is plus or minus 4.2 points. For Wisconsin, it is plus or minus 4.3 points. Based on New York Times/Siena College polls of 619 voters in Michigan conducted from Aug. 5 to 8, 693 voters in Pennsylvania conducted from Aug. 6 to 9, and 661 voters in Wisconsin conducted from Aug. 5 to 8.By Lily Boyce and
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Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald J. Trump in three crucial battleground states, according to new surveys by The New York Times and Siena College, the latest indication of a dramatic reversal in standing for Democrats after President Biden’s departure from the presidential race remade it.
Ms. Harris is ahead of Mr. Trump by four percentage points in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, 50 percent to 46 percent among likely voters in each state. The surveys were conducted from Aug. 5 to 9.
The polls, some of the first high-quality surveys in those states since Mr. Biden announced he would no longer run for re-election, come after nearly a year of surveys that showed either a tied contest or a slight lead for Mr. Trump over Mr. Biden.
[On question after question, the poll finds that voters don’t seem to have major reservations about Kamala Harris, Nate Cohn writes.]
While the reshaped race is still in its volatile early weeks, Democrats are now in a notably stronger position in these three battleground states that have long been key to the party’s victories — or defeats. Still, the results show vulnerabilities for Ms. Harris. Voters prefer Mr. Trump when it comes to whom they trust to handle the economy and immigration, issues that remain central to the presidential race.
Ms. Harris’s numbers are an upswing for Democrats from Mr. Biden’s performance in those states, even before his much-maligned debate showing that destabilized his candidacy. In May, Mr. Biden was virtually tied with Mr. Trump in Times/Siena polling in Wisconsin and Michigan. Polling conducted before and after the debate in July showed Mr. Trump with a narrow lead in Pennsylvania.
What questions were asked? Who answers polls?The New York Times/Siena College Poll has earned a reputation for accuracy and transparency. Our pollsters and editors are committed to explaining our methods and answering common questions. Read our Q. and A. and explore the full results of the polls:
Much of the newfound Democratic strength stems from improved voter perceptions of Ms. Harris. Her favorability rating has increased 10 percentage points among registered voters in Pennsylvania just in the last month, according to Times/Siena polling. Voters also view Ms. Harris as more intelligent and more temperamentally fit to govern than Mr. Trump.
Les Lanser, a retiree from Holland, Mich., who typically votes Republican, said he was considering backing Ms. Harris in November. While he disagrees with some Democratic policies, he said he could not stand Mr. Trump’s “disrespectful” and “unacceptable” attitude.
“Some of her character is real appealing to me. I’m not so sure I agree with a lot of her policies,” said Mr. Lanser, 89, who regrets supporting Mr. Trump in 2016. “But the alternative is just not acceptable at all in my mind — because character is everything.”
The polls offer an early snapshot of a race that was transformed in little more than two weeks. The whirlwind of political change seized the nation’s attention and reinvigorated some voters who were approaching the rematch between Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump with a deep sense of dread.
It is unclear how much of Ms. Harris’s bounce in the polls stems from the heightened excitement surrounding her ascension to the top of the ticket, or whether that momentum will last. Candidates traditionally gain a few percentage points in the days and weeks after announcing their running mate. Ms. Harris announced her selection of Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota on Tuesday, as voters were responding to the Times/Siena surveys in Michigan and Wisconsin.
THE NEW YORK TIMES/SIENA COLLEGE POLL
MICH., PA., WIS.
In general, how satisfied are you with your choice of candidates in this fall’s presidential election?
All
MAY
58%
Satisfied
40
Not satisfied
AUG.
73%
25
Democrats
MAY
60%
39
AUG.
87%
12
Independents
MAY
45%
53
AUG.
60%
37
Republicans
MAY
74%
25
AUG.
79%
19
Harris Leads Trump in Three Key States, Times/Siena Polls Find - The New York Times
Notes: The unlabeled segment refers to the share of voters who did not respond or said they didn’t know. “Satisfied” includes the responses “somewhat satisfied” and “very satisfied,” and “not satisfied” includes the responses “not too satisfied” and “not at all satisfied.”Based on New York Times/Siena College polls of 693 voters in Pennsylvania conducted from Aug. 6 to 9, 619 voters in Michigan conducted from Aug. 5 to 8, and 661 voters in Wisconsin conducted from Aug. 5 to 8.By Lily Boyce and Andrew Park
Still, there is little doubt that replacing Mr. Biden on the ticket has turbocharged Democratic enthusiasm about the election. Among Democrats, voter satisfaction with their choice of candidates has skyrocketed since Ms. Harris entered the race, up 27 percentage points in the three swing states since May, according to the latest Times/Siena results. Democrats are now more likely to say they are satisfied with their candidate choices than Republicans, a reversal from three months ago, when the questio
John Jordan, a Democratic voter from Croydon, Pa., praised Mr. Biden’s accomplishments as president and said he would have voted for him again in November. But his friends and family are way more “pumped up” to support Ms. Harris, he said.
Here’s the latest on the presidential race.
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“I believe that she is best suited to move this country forward,” said Mr. Jordan, 60, who works as a charter school administrator. “I’ll also take it one step further to say, I’m very proud to be part of this historic moment and to hope that, yes, she does become the first African American slash Asian woman to be in the White House. I think that this is just such an exciting time and an exciting moment.”
In the three battlegrounds, Ms. Harris is in a stronger position than Mr. Biden was in May with most demographic groups, including white voters without a college degree. She is faring better with key parts of the Democratic Party’s coalition that had begun to erode under Mr. Biden, most notably Black and young voters. But she also appears to be holding on to older voters, who were some of the president’s most ardent supporters.
The share of voters who said they trusted Ms. Harris to handle economic issues was higher than the share Mr. Biden received in May, though she is still nine points behind Mr. Trump on an issue where the Republican nominee has long held the advantage. And she has a 24-percentage-point advantage when it comes to whom voters trust to handle abortion, an issue considered one of the strongest for Democrats — in May, Mr. Biden held a 13-percentage-point advantage on abortion.
Mr. Trump’s attacks on Ms. Harris as “not smart” and “incompetent” have not landed with most voters. Nearly two-thirds of voters see Ms. Harris as intelligent, more than say the same about Mr. Trump. A majority of white voters without a college degree — a demographic that typically favors Republicans — said Ms. Harris was “intelligent.”
THE NEW YORK TIMES/SIENA COLLEGE POLL
MICH., PA., WIS.
Percentage of registered voters who said these traits described each candidate “very well” or “somewhat well”
*Harris
**Trump
Has a clear vision for the country
*53
**60
Has the temperament to be an effective president
*54
**45
Is honest
*52
**41
Is intelligent
*65
**56
Will bring about the right kind of change
*50
**47
Based on New York Times/Siena College polls of 619 voters in Michigan conducted from Aug. 5 to 8, 693 voters in Pennsylvania conducted from Aug. 6 to 9, and 661 voters in Wisconsin conducted from Aug. 5 to 8.By Lily Boyce and Andrew Park
But the polls also indicate clear vulnerabilities for the new Democratic presidential nominee. Forty-two percent of voters said Ms. Harris was too liberal; 37 percent said the same about Mr. Biden last October. Mr. Trump and his campaign have tried to define Ms. Harris as a left-wing extremist from deep blue San Francisco who is out of touch with swing-state voters.
In recent days, Ms. Harris has disavowed some of her previous stances on issues including border enforcement and fracking, as well as her support for a single-payer health care system.
Jonathan Ball, a floor installer from Jackson, Mich., said he believed Mr. Trump would do more to help working Americans than Ms. Harris.
“I think she’s more liberal. I just don’t think she’s all for the middle class,” said Mr. Ball, 46, who plans to support Mr. Trump for a third time this fall. “I just see her one-sided. You know, for the rich.”
The changes to the Democratic ticket have not altered the issues at the heart of the race. Voters in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania still rank the economy, abortion, and immigration as their top concerns. Mr. Trump still leads on the economy and immigration, while Ms. Harris is more trusted to handle abortion and democracy.
Harris Leads Trump in Three Key States, Times/Siena Polls Find - The New York Times
Notes: Margins are calculated using unrounded vote shares when available. The Times’s polling average is as of 5 a.m. Eastern on Aug. 10.By Lily Boyce and Andrew Park
As is often the case in times of economic uncertainty, many voters are looking to back a candidate who represents change. Mr. Trump still holds the mantle of the “change” candidate in the race, though Ms. Harris appears to have made inroads from Mr. Biden’s previous standing. Voters are now about equally likely to say that either Mr. Trump or Ms. Harris would bring about the right kind of change, according to the latest Times/Siena surveys.
Beyond views of Mr. Trump, the polls captured mixed feelings about his running mate, Senator JD Vance of Ohio. Mr. Vance had a rocky debut on the campaign trail after a number of past comments drew fresh scrutiny, including a remark in 2021 that the United States was being run by “childless cat ladies” like Ms. Harris.
Across all three states, Mr. Vance is viewed broadly unfavorably by independent voters: About one-third said they were dissatisfied, and another 17 percent described themselves as “angry” about his selection. Strikingly, he receives lukewarm support from a notable number of Republican voters. While 43 percent said they were excited about their vice-presidential nominee, 38 percent said they were satisfied but not enthusiastic.
Mr. Walz, by comparison, received higher marks within his own party. In Pennsylvania, the only state where the poll was taken entirely after Mr. Walz was announced as Ms. Harris’s running mate, 48 percent of Democrats said they were excited about the vice-presidential nominee. (In Wisconsin and Michigan, some interviews were completed before Ms. Harris announced that she had chosen Mr. Walz.)
Barbara Kampa, a two-time Trump voter from Greendale, Wis., said she was shocked when she first heard Mr. Vance on the campaign trial.
“I was like, oh, holy crap. I don’t know how to say it nicely, but holy crap,” said Ms. Kampa, 64, who is retired and plans to vote again for Mr. Trump. “He needs to be sat down and told, ‘Well, this is how we approach things for us to get people to vote for us.’ You can’t go out there like it’s the Wild West and start shooting. That turns people off.”
The new polls also included crucial Senate races in the three swing states. Democrats hold a slight edge among likely voters in Michigan and larger leads in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
As recently as a few months ago, Democratic Senate candidates were running far ahead of Mr. Biden, a sign of the president’s weakness. Ms. Harris, by comparison, is running roughly on par with her party’s Senate contenders in the three states.
Camille Baker contributed reporting from New York. Additional contributions by Christine Zhang.
Here are the key things to know about these Times/Siena polls:
Interviewers spoke with 619 registered voters in Michigan and 661 registered voters in Wisconsin from Aug. 5 to 8, and 693 registered voters in Pennsylvania from Aug. 6 to 9.
Times/Siena polls are conducted by telephone, using live interviewers, in both English and Spanish. About 90 percent of respondents were contacted on a cellphone for these polls. You can see the exact questions that were asked and the order in which they were asked here.
Voters are selected for Times/Siena surveys from a list of registered voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For this poll, interviewers placed more than 237,000 calls to nearly 118,000 voters.
To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups that are underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree. You can see more information about the characteristics of our respondents and the weighted sample at the bottom of the results and methodology page, under “Composition of the Sample.”
The margin of sampling error among registered voters is plus or minus 4.5 percentage points in Michigan, plus or minus 4 percentage points in Pennsylvania, and plus or minus 4.3 percentage points in Wisconsin. In theory, this means that the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time, though many other challenges create additional sources of error. When computing the difference between two values — such as a candidate’s lead in a race — the margin of error is twice as large.
You can see full results and a detailed methodology here. If you want to read more about how and why we conduct our polls, you can see answers to frequently asked questions and submit your own questions here.
Lisa Lerer is a national political reporter for The Times, based in New York. She has covered American politics for nearly two decades. More about Lisa Lerer
Ruth Igielnik is a Times polling editor who conducts polls and analyzes and reports on the results. More about Ruth Igielnik
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