Likely LGBTQ Voters Prefer Biden Over Donald

 

 

MAJORITY OF REGISTERED VOTERS, INCLUDING SUPPORTERS OF FORMER PRESIDENT TRUMP, OPPOSE CANDIDATES WHO CAMPAIGN AGAINST TRANSGENDER AMERICANS

49% OF LGBTQ VOTERS REPORT EXPERIENCING REAL-WORLD HARASSMENT OR BULLYING

LIKELY LGBTQ VOTERS PREFER PRESIDENT BIDEN OVER DONALD TRUMP BY 57 POINTS IN SEVEN SWING STATES

(New York, NY – March 7, 2024) GLAAD, the world’s largest lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, and queer (LGBTQ) media advocacy organization, is releasing the findings of a poll gauging motivation and top issues ahead of the 2024 general election in November. The nationwide survey polled both LGBTQ adults and registered voters (including both LGBTQ and non-LGBTQ).

The poll, conducted in late January 2024, surveyed LGBTQ participants about how motivated they were to vote, about the issues candidates should address in the campaign, concerns over the further restrictions of individual rights, candidate preference in the presidential campaign, and about their emotional well-being and sense of personal safety in the current political environment. The poll was conducted two weeks before the tragic death of Oklahoma student Nex Benedict made national headlines.

Poll results here and pollster memos here and here.

Registered voters (which includes LGBTQ and non-LGBTQ participants) were asked about their top priorities. A majority of all voters say they would oppose candidates who frequently speak about restricting access to health care and youth sports participation for transgender youth. 81% say health care decisions for youth should be made by parents. All voter categories surveyed—LGBTQ, registered, Trump voters and swing voters who say they vote for either party —agree that politicians “should stop focusing on restricting women’s rights and banning medical care for transgender youth and instead focus on addressing inflation, job creation, and healthcare costs.”

KEY FINDINGS OF THE POLL INCLUDE:

Motivation to vote in 2024

LGBTQ registered voters are highly motivated as the presidential and key congressional campaigns approach, with 94% indicating they are definitely (83%) or probably (11%) voting this November.

LGBTQ voters are eager to participate in the November 2024 election and are positioned to be a decisive voter bloc, much like they were in the 2020 Presidential election. According to analysis in the Washington Post, LGBTQ voters in 2020 were 7 to 8% of the overall electorate, a turnout that played a decisive role in President Joe Biden’s win in the close contest swing states.

Likely LGBTQ voters nationwide and in seven swing states prefer President Biden

LGBTQ likely voters prefer President Joe Biden over Donald Trump by +53 percentage points nationwide (68% Biden / 15% Trump) and by +57 percentage points in seven current close contest states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

In a generic vote preference for Congress, LGBTQ likely voters prefer a Democratic candidate by +63 percentage points nationwide (77% Democrat / 14% Republican) and by +67 percentage points in the seven most competitive states with U.S. Senate races: Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin (79% Democrat / 12% Republican).

Campaigning on anti-transgender Issues is a losing strategy

53% of both registered and likely 2024 voters say they would oppose “a political candidate [who] speaks frequently about restricting access to health care and participation in sports for transgender youth.”

Voters overwhelmingly believe that decisions about health care and mental health services for transgender youth should be made by parents: 81% of likely 2024 voters, 83% of swing voters, and 73% of Trump voters agree.

All categories overwhelmingly agree that “Republicans should stop focusing on restricting women’s rights and banning medical care for transgender youth and instead focus on addressing inflation, job creation, and healthcare costs.” 94% of LGBTQ voters, 76% of registered voters, 76% of likely 2024 voters, and 82% of swing voters agree.

Political environment and the well-being of LGBTQ people

49% of LGBTQ voters reported experiencing real-world harassment or bullying caused by the current state of political discourse in our country.

72% experience negative impacts to their mental health and emotional well-being caused by the current state of political discourse in our country.

Statement from GLAAD President and CEO Sarah Kate Ellis:

“GLAAD’s research shows that LGBTQ Americans are ready to exert their significant power to shape electoral politics, choose responsible leadership, and use their voices to advocate for equality. Our new survey also shows that the majority of all voters reject harmful anti-LGBTQ rhetoric and candidates who spread it. Voters are insisting that politicians focus instead on the real issues facing our nation, including inflation, abortion rights, and climate change. Candidates, parties, strategists and reporters are on notice about the power of the LGBTQ vote and the issues that should be demanding attention, including our fundamental freedoms and everyone’s safety and well-being.”

In 2020, the Washington Post reported that LGBTQ voters provided the deciding edge for the pro-equality presidential ticket in 2020 with a surge of new registrations. The Williams Institute reported in early 2020 that nine million LGBTQ adults were registered to vote, about 79% of LGBTQ adults.

GLAAD has been tracking the records of all the major presidential candidates on LGBTQ people and the issues facing our community including Donald Trump’s history of 200+ attacks in policy and rhetoric here.

GLAAD is tracking the Biden-Harris administration’s record on LGBTQ people and policy in our Biden Accountability Tracker here.

GLAAD has also tracked how candidates’ false rhetoric and claims against LGBTQ people, especially transgender people, were prominent in recent Republican presidential primary debates, in September, November, and December. 2023 election returns in Virginia, Kentucky, and Ohio show that voters marked their ballots in favor of pro-equality candidates and issues and showcased the failure of anti-transgender rhetoric in campaigns.

METHODOLOGY:

A nationwide survey of registered voters was conducted by Pathfinder Opinion Research from January 25-31, 2024, with a main sample comprising n=1,000 respondents.

Additionally, an oversample of interviews was conducted specifically among LGBTQ registered voters. Combining the LGBTQ oversample interviews with LGBTQ respondents identified in the main sample results in a nationwide LGBTQ sample totaling n=869.

Interviews were conducted online using a national research panel. In the registered voter sample (n=1,000), data were weighted by gender, age, race/ethnicity, geography, education, LGBTQ identification, and 2020 Presidential vote participation and preference to accurately reflect the correct composition of the registered voter universe. Weighting targets were derived from the 2022 Census

Current Population Survey. Additionally, LGBTQ-identifying respondents were weighted down to 11% of the registered voter sample based on this report estimating this group’s composition within the voting eligible population. The overall credibility interval (a theoretical margin of error for non-probability samples) for this sample is ±3.1%. In the LGBTQ voter sample (n=869), data were weighted by gender, age, race/ethnicity, geography, and education to accurately reflect the correct composition of this universe. Weighting targets were derived from the 2021 Census Household Pulse Survey and

demographic estimates of the LGBT population published by the Williams Institute. The overall credibility interval (a theoretical margin of error for non-probability samples) for this sample is ±3.3%.

About GLAAD: GLAAD rewrites the script for LGBTQ acceptance. As a dynamic media force, GLAAD tackles tough issues to shape the narrative and provoke dialogue that leads to cultural change. GLAAD protects all that has been accomplished and creates a world where everyone can live the life they love. For more information, please visit www.glaad.org or connect with GLAAD on Facebook and Twitter.