Russian Army in Big Trouble Heading into 2023 {Retired U.S. Major Gen.}
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Russia's war against Ukraine should "culminate" by the summer of 2023, according to a retired U.S. Army official.
Retired Major John Spencer told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's Georgian service that he doesn't share the opinion that the war will last for years as others have predicted, due to Ukraine's strength on the battlefield and support from Western allies.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's initial strategy of overtaking Kyiv in April was a failure, Spencer said, followed by another unsuccessful attempt to alienate Ukrainian allies. Russia's continued attacks on critical Ukrainian infrastructure to literally "freeze" Ukraine and its people are "futile," he said.
"I think it's clear that Putin is not going to let his own intentions go. He doesn't care how many Russian soldiers will die," Spencer said. "But the Russian Army is in trouble, very big trouble. Putin wants to slow down the war. He needs time to give at least a little military training to the thousands of people who were forced into military service.
Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) looks on during a meeting during a formal summit of the heads of state of the Commonwealth of Independent States at the State Russian Museum in Saint Petersburg on December 27, 2022. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (right) addresses Congress at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on December 21, 2022. A former U.S. Army major predicts that Russia's war efforts will cease by the summer of 2023 due to limited manpower and supplies.
"At this point, I don't see any direction in which the Russian Army can advance. Their only goal is to keep what they've captured and I think they won't succeed, either."
Hilary Appel, a government professor at Claremont McKenna College in Claremont, California, told Newsweek that Russia has other options for military support, such as Iran and North Korea. Iran's drones are having a significant impact on the war, she said, on the battlefield and on the calculations of other countries such as Israel, which has shown restraint because of its own strategic considerations.
"The first few days in February 2022 failed to achieve the downfall of the Zelensky regime, as hoped for by the Russian government," Appel said. "Yet it is important to recall that the most important advances leading to the control of nearly 20 percent of Ukraine's territory occurred early in the war.
"But the Russian military's poor logistics and an ineffective command structure, combined with the well-trained and highly motivated Ukrainian troops, succeeded in stopping the advance and de-occupying captured territory."
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Spencer's comments came as Russia launched a massive missile attack in several regions of Ukraine on Thursday, including in Kyiv. Ukrainian officials reported three injuries and damage to homes, a hospital, and other properties.
The newest attacks come as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has accused the "collective West" of first declaring war on Russia in 2014, headed by the U.S.
"This war was declared on us quite a long time ago, after the coup d'etat in Ukraine that was orchestrated by the United States and, in fact, backed by the European Union," Lavrov said.
Lavrov also accused Ukraine of not acting in good faith for peace talks while adding that Russia will not negotiate if certain preconditions are part of any such discussion.
"Putting forward all sorts of ideas and 'formulas of peace,' Zelensky cherishes the illusion of achieving, with the help of the West, the withdrawal of our troops from the Russian territory of Donbas, Crimea, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson region, the payment of reparations by Russia, and the surrender of international tribunals and the like," Lavrov said.
Mikhail Alexseev, a political science professor at San Diego State University, told Newsweek that Thursday's attacks indicate Russia is continuing "its Mariupol 2.0 strategy to subjugate Ukraine." He said that despite major Ukrainian military advances, it's no time for complacency.
That is due to potentially larger-than-expected Russian stockpiles, he said, in addition to an ability to replenish munitions quicker than others might have expected. There is also the question of what Belarusian troops under Russian command could potentially contribute.
"Russia has also been building up its manpower capacity with a view to acquiring the capability to rapidly increase the number of troops it can throw into battle," Alexseev said. "It appears the Russian strategy is to deplete Ukraine's power supply and possibly launch new massive attacks from several directions.
"In addition, the regular flow of internal news in Russia indicates the state is beefing up longer-term military footing, switching from two to three shifts at armament factories, conducting mass hiring there, ordering military training at major universities, and intensifying claims on all of Ukraine as part of Russia."
Spencer said Ukraine has become "the most proficient military in the world because they're learning how to kill Russians better than anybody in the world."
"I think by next summer Ukraine will have caused the Russian military to culminate because Russia doesn't have resupply, it doesn't have alliances, it barely has the manpower," he said.
It is a war based on logistics, not tactics, Spencer added.
"Ukraine will not run out of bullets, it won't run out of soldiers," Spencer said. "Russia doesn't have a million soldiers to put into the fight. In order to do that, you have to threaten Russia's survival, you've got to make this a fight about Mother Russia, you have to make this about a fight for survival.
"And Russians have already shown that they don't believe that this is a war for survival. That's why more men left the country than joined the mobilization."
Newsweek reached out to the Ukrainian and Russian defense ministries for comment.
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