Bernie Rising in The Polls/Dems But There is Little Chance Vs.Trump Most Americans Are Not for Socialism
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is rising in the polls among Democrats, but questions about his electability against President Trump persist because he self-identifies as a democratic socialist.
A new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll backs up the idea that the label could hurt him.
Asked about their impression of socialism, only about a quarter of Americans (28%) said they have a favorable view, while almost 6-in-10 (58%) said they had an unfavorable impression.
If socialism is so unpopular with Americans, how can Sanders be on the rise in the Democratic primary? Because Democrats and, more specifically, progressives view socialism favorably. Half of Democrats said so, while more than two-thirds of progressives did.
Just 23% of independents, though, and 7% of Republicans viewed socialism favorably.
Views of socialism grow more unfavorably the older the generation, but even 50% of Gen Z and Millennials had an unfavorable view of it, as opposed to just 38%, who had a favorable one.
Suburban voters, who have been trending with Democrats since Trump's election, are overwhelmingly against it by a 27%-to-61% margin.
Capitalism, on the other hand, was viewed overwhelmingly favorably by a 57%-to-29% margin. But a majority of progressives (52%) had an unfavorable view of capitalism, as did a 45%-to-37% plurality of African Americans.
The views of capitalism versus socialism is one reason why Republicans prefer to face Sanders in the general election. They and veteran Democrats point out that Sanders hasn't yet faced the likely barrage of attacks around his economic belief system — Democratic socialism.
But Sanders, in this poll and others, does beat President Trump in a head-to-head match up, 48% to 45%. That's something his campaign and surrogates are eager to point out.
In June 2019, Sanders reiterated his case for Democratic socialism, as he defines it — a push for a "New Deal" of the 21st century, in line with Western European countries that have policies like universal health care and paid leave.
In a 2015 Democratic presidential debate, Sanders said, "I believe in a society where all people do well, not just a handful of billionaires."
Warren is a top second choice, but mostly of Sanders supporters
Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren has tried to distinguish herself from Sanders by calling herself a capitalist. But she has slid in the polls, as progressives appear to have begun to coalesce around Sanders.
In the latest NPR poll, Warren is fourth with 12%, down 5 points from December, the last time Democratic preferences were tested.
It turns out Warren leads as Democratic voters' top second-choice candidate — 23% say she's their second choice, followed by Sanders' 14%; Biden, Buttigieg, and Bloomberg each get 13%; Klobuchar is the second choice of 10% of Democratic voters.
Unfortunately for Warren, many of those who list her as their second choice is Sanders supporters. And that's the difficult position Warren is in. She most needs the support of progressives, who are largely supporting Sanders, and she has not been able to wrest them away.
She is the second choice of 45% of Sanders supporters. Fourteen percent of Sanders backers would go with former Vice President Joe Biden as a second choice; 13% would go with former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg, and 11% would pick former Mayor Pete Buttigieg.
Bloomberg and Biden, on the other hand, take equally from each other — 28% of each of their supporters said the other is their second-choice pick. Buttigieg, Sanders, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Warren follow.
Optimism about the country hits eight-year high
The percentage of Americans saying the country is headed in the right direction was just 41%, but that represents the highest level since March of 2012 in Marist's polling.
That's up 6 points from October. Half the country still says the country is headed in the wrong direction, but the 50% who said so is the lowest the poll has recorded since January 2011.
Part of that is likely because of the economy. Unemployment was at just 3.6% for the month of January, the 12th straight month of sub-4% unemployment.
What's more, two-thirds of people say the economy is working well for them.
President Trump is benefiting from that — 51% of all adults and 54% of registered voters approve of the job Trump is doing handling the economy.
That's higher than his overall approval rating of just 42% of all adults and 44% of registered voters. A majority of Americans (51%) still disapprove of the job the president is doing overall.
Beating Trump is most important to Democratic voters
The strength of the economy is likely aiding Trump's reelection chances. Democrats seem to understand that he could be tough to beat, which might be why, by a 55%-42% margin, Democrats say picking a nominee who has the best chance of beating Trump is more important than someone who shares their position on most issues.
Not surprisingly, the overwhelming majorities of Bloomberg and Biden supporters said it was more important to pick someone who could beat Trump, while the opposite was true for Sanders backers.
Of Bloomberg voters, 70% said it was more important to beat Trump, and 63% of Biden backers said the same.
When it comes to Sanders, though, 60% said it was more important for the nominee to share their values.
People 45 and older (66%), whites (65%) and suburban women (64%) were the most likely to say picking someone who could win was most important.
Voters under 45 (59%) and independents (53%) and non-whites (50%) were the most likely to say it was most important to pick someone who shares their positions.
A quarter of Democrats could stay home or back someone else in November
One danger sign for Democrats is that nearly 1 in 5 Democratic voters or independents who lean Democratic say that if their preferred candidate doesn't get the nomination, they'll either stay home, vote for someone else or vote for Trump.
Of that group, 12% of Sanders backers said they would not vote for president if he is not the nominee.
More than a quarter of voters under 45 (26%) said they would not vote for the Democratic nominee if it's not the candidate they support, including 10% who said they would not vote for president at all, 11% who would vote for someone else and 5% who said they'd vote for Trump.
But the potential decline with young voters has to be a red flag for the Democratic Party.
Independents were the least likely to vote for whoever the nominee is — just 65% said so — 15% said they'd vote for someone else, 12% said they would not vote for president and another 3% would vote for Trump.
Much of that is likely because it's the heat of the primary battle; these numbers might decline when there is an actual nominee and calls for unity.
Three-quarters (76%) of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents said they would vote for the Democratic nominee, whoever that ends up being.
Democrats lead by a solid margin on the congressional ballot
For all the disarray in the Democratic primary, voters say they'd back a Democrat in their congressional district by an 8-point margin, if elections were held today.
That 48%-to-40% margin is the highest in the poll for Democrats since late October 2018, right before the midterm elections that saw Democrats swept into control of the House.
Democratic support is buoyed, once again, by suburban women. There is a massive gender gap in the suburbs, with women there saying they'd back a Democrat by a 63%-to-26% margin and men saying they'd back a Republican, 49%-to-40%.
"There might be a lot of fights in those households right now," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the poll. "It's probably best to avoid talking about politics [in those homes] right now."
The live-caller survey of 1,416 adults was conducted from Feb. 13 to Feb. 16 by the Marist Poll at the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points. The poll includes 1,164 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points and 527 Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents with a margin of error of +/- 5.4 percentage points.
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