Clinton Ahead in Most Win State of Pennsylvania by 9 Points
Democrat Hillary Clinton has a 9-point lead among likely Pennsylvania voters as Republican Donald Trump continues to struggle among groups key to winning the state, according to a Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll released Saturday.
The survey, conducted Sept. 12-16, shows Clinton leading the presidential race here with support from 47 percent of likely voters who say they intend to vote for her or are leaning that way. Trump is at 38 percent, while 11 percent say they'd pick neither of the major-party choices, and 4 percent are not sure.
Clinton’s lead narrows slightly to 8 percent when third-party candidates are included, with 40 percent for her, 32 percent for Trump, 14 percent for Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and 5 percent for Green Party nominee Jill Stein.
A demographic breakdown shows Clinton holding a significant lead among women, college-educated voters, and those in the state's densely populated southeast.
"Those are all cornerstones of Pennsylvania electoral math, and right now, he's lagging in all of those areas," said Chris Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, which conducted the state poll of 405 likely general election voters.
Trump's troubles aren't helping Republican U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey in his tough re-election battle. The poll shows Democratic challenger Katie McGinty ahead of Toomey, 43 percent to 38 percent.
That’s within the survey’s 5.5 percent margin of error, but in line with other recent polls that have shown the race tightening since Toomey's early-summer leads.
Poll results: Who would you vote for if the election were held today?
The poll results follow a tumultuous week on the presidential campaign trail, which began with Clinton sidelined due to a bout of pneumonia that caused her to hastily leave an event. It ended with a renewed look at Trump's years of insinuations regarding President Obama's birthplace, with the GOP nominee acknowledging for the first time that Obama was born in the United States but also falsely blaming Clinton for starting the rumors about the president's citizenship.
They also come as national polls and those in several swing states have shown Clinton's lead dwindling. As with the new poll, other surveys of Pennsylvania voters have suggested the double-digit margin she built after the July conventions is narrowing.
Pennsylvania's polls are getting extra attention as analysts look to the state as one that may decide the outcome of the presidential contest. David Rothschild, an economist who runs an online forecasting model, told the New York Times last week that Pennsylvania "has been the most likely tipping-point state since the mid-summer."
The new Muhlenberg survey suggests that Trump has some work to do if he's going to tip Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes to a Republican for the first time since 1988.
A critical challenge lies within his own party: 71 percent of Republicans say they're backing Trump, while 10 percent back Clinton and 19 percent are unsure. Among Democrats, 81 percent are for Clinton, 11 percent are for Trump and 9 percent are uncertain.
Independents lean toward Clinton, 42 percent to 33 percent, and one-quarter are undecided.
"Trump is able to attract some Democrats, but he can't lose the amount of Republicans that this poll is showing and win the state," Borick said. "It's not mathematically possible."
Trump's challenges are not aiding Toomey in his own closely watched contest, in which Borick described Toomey's chances as "tied to someone who he's not very interested in being tied to."
Toomey has not endorsed Trump and has condemned some of the nominee's comments, but has not ruled out supporting Trump. Still, McGinty and her surrogates have sought to link Toomey and Trump.
At a rally Saturday outside the Lehigh County GOP headquarters in Allentown, about 100 Latino activists also sought to connect the two candidates, holding signs that read: "Dump Trump, Dump Toomey."
Among them was Hilda Gonzalez, who emigrated from Mexico 15 years ago and doesn't like Toomey's positions on immigration issues.
Toomey opposes Philadelphia's sanctuary city policy and has introduced legislation to withhold some federal money from cities that prohibit local police from cooperating with federal immigration officials.
Gonzalez also takes issue with Trump's rhetoric about building a wall along the Mexican border.
"I cannot imagine the United States of America with a president like him," she said.
Borick said Trump's demographic struggles highlighted by the poll are consistent with the candidate's well-documented weak spots.
Among women, Trump is behind by 18 points, following a week in which he visited Delaware County to unveil a maternity-leave policy and tax deductions for child-care expenses.
Clinton ties Trump among white voters and men. The two candidates are neck and neck among those without college degrees, with 43 percent for Clinton and 42 percent for Trump. But among those with college degrees, she tops him, 51 percent to 35 percent.
In Philadelphia and the surrounding counties, Clinton has a wide margin of 30 percentage points, 56 percent to 26 percent, according to the survey. The wider Clinton's margin in southeastern Pennsylvania, the more difficult it will be for Trump to counteract those gains in less-populated areas of the state, Borick said.
Trump lags by 3 percent in Pittsburgh and the surrounding southwestern counties, and he beats Clinton, 48 percent to 37 percent, among voters outside of the southeast and the southwest.
Amid the cacophony of the presidential contest, some voters told Muhlenberg pollsters they still don't have a clear opinion on the candidates battling in the U.S. Senate race that will also be on the Nov. 8 ballot.
Asked their views on the candidates, 28 percent had a favorable view of Toomey, 37 percent reported an unfavorable view of him, and 32 percent weren't sure. For McGinty, 23 percent had a favorable view, 28 percent had an unfavorable one, and 39 percent don't have an opinion of her.
Favorability ratings are gloomier for Clinton and Trump: about 3 in 10 reported a favorable view of each candidate.
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