The Republican Party is Dead in California.

The Republican Party, as a brand, is dead in California.
That's the eye-opening consensus of a crowd of political observers, lawmakers and strategists - Democrats and Republicans - gathered at a UC Berkeley symposium this weekend to mull over California's defiantly blue status in the wake of a conservative tide that swept the nation in November.
Many of the 200 attendees at the two-day Institute of Governmental Studies conference appeared surprisingly unified on one issue: that, barring dramatic upheaval, the GOP's prospects may be doomed in the voter-rich Golden State.
"Republicans, as a brand, are dead," Duf Sundheim, the former state GOP chair, told the gathering Saturday.
Exhibit A: Los Angeles District Attorney Steve Cooley, who had racked up a string of election victories in nonpartisan offices. But Cooley lost the 2010 state attorney general's race to San Francisco Democrat Kamala Harris. Why? "He had an 'R' after his name," Sundheim said.
"There's a brand problem," agreed Republican Jim Brulte, former state Senate minority leader.
California voters supported a number of conservative ballot measures, yet not a single conservative lawmaker for statewide office, Brulte noted. Voters made it clear they "just don't want Republicans in office."
With just months until Republicans kick off a demolition derby to pick their nominee for the 2012 presidential contest, such dire party prospects in California - home to one 1 in 8 American voters and many deep-pocketed donors - could have political ripple effects.
"We've become an island, a political island unto ourselves," Thad Kousser, a political analyst from UC San Diego, said of California's overwhelmingly blue streak in the November election.
Just how much Meg Whitman, the defeated 2010 billionaire gubernatorial candidate, is to blame for the California GOP's sorry prospects was the subject of sharp debate.
Whitman's crushing 13-point defeat by Gov. Jerry Brown, despite spending more than $140 million of her own money, was roundly bashed by experts. But neither she, nor her team of highly paid consultants, was present to defend themselves.
The former eBay CEO's team declined to attend, becoming the first gubernatorial campaign in the history of the prestigious academic symposium to do so.
In the wake of her defeat, the outlook for Whitman's party is stark, said Kimberly Nalder, associate professor of government at Cal State Sacramento, who titled her talk "Are California Republicans Doomed?"
Republicans are losing ground to decline-to-state voters, who now make up 1 in 5 registered voters, she said. They should be particularly horrified at voter trends among women, who are now 16 percent more likely to register as Democrats than as Republicans.
"Republicans need to learn how to talk to non-traditional Republican voters," said Bettina Inclan, who worked on the communications team for losing California GOP gubernatorial candidate Steve Poizner. Not just Latinos, she said, but African Americans and young people, too.
Republicans will remain dead in California until the party "decides it won't be hostile to people who aren't old and white," said Darry Sragow, interim director of the USC/Los Angeles Times Poll and a longtime Democratic strategist.
Some believe the open-primary law California voters passed in November could breathe new life into the party. Under the law, the top two finishers in the primary - no matter what party they're from - will move on to the general election. Some believe the new system will allow more moderate Republicans to prosper in districts that now swing Democratic.
"It will change the dialogue for Republicans," said Carroll Wills, an organizer with the firefighters union.
Republican strategist Tony Quinn cautioned that the GOP's obituary has been written before; in 1964, "Republicans took a terrible beating," and rebounded with "a B-movie actor that had never run for public office in his life," Ronald Reagan.
Republicans could make a comeback if "the coming political division is going to be between working California and the public sector," he added.
Rick Claussen, a leading GOP strategist, said that unless the grass roots and the state party change tactics - and step back from their current emphasis on conservative social issues - "we're not going to see a Republican statewide winner in the next decade."


by Carla Marinucci,Joe Garofoli, Chronicle Political Writers

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