Yes, DADT repeal could still pass, Senate staffers say

Good news: Don't Ask Don't Tell repeal is not dead yet.

It's widely assumed that the reason the White House and Dems will punt on holding a vote on Don't Ask Don't Tell during the lame duck session is that there aren't 60 votes for it in the Senate to get it past a GOP filibuster. Senator Carl Levin, who heads the relevant committee, is talking about separating out DADT repeal from the Defense Authorization Bill for precisely this reason.

But very plugged in staffers who are actively involved in counting votes for Senators who favor repeal tell me it's premature to conclude this -- and that it could still get 60 votes in the Senate. These staffers tell me they've received private indications from a handful of moderate GOP Senators that they could vote for cloture on a Defense Authorization Bill with DADT repeal in it -- if Dem leaders agree to hold a sustained debate on the bill on the Senate floor.

Here's why this is important: It throws the ball back into the court of Senator Harry Reid and the White House. It means the onus is on them, mainly on Reid, to agree to a two-week Senate debate on DADT, including allowing amendments. Reid had previously tried to limit amendments, leading GOP moderates to balk. And Dem leaders may not want to allow this two week debate now, because time is short and it could prolong the session. But they should do it, because it's the only real chance to get repeal done. And it could get done.

The GOP Senators who are in play, according to these staffers, are Richard Lugar, George Voinovich, Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins. A spokesman for Lugar, Mark Helmke, tells me that Lugar would vote for cloture if Reid staged "ordered debate on a number of issues in the bill."

Helmke said he was skeptical that Reid would do this, however. "I would be surprised if the Majority Leader could achieve that in the time we have left," he said.

Kevin Kelley, a spokesperson for Collins, who supports repeal but has butted heads procedurally with Dems in the past, said: "She has indicated that she would support cloture if the Majority Leader allows a full and open debate."

A spokesperson for Snowe denied there are any discussions underway, and a spokesperson for Voinovich didn't return calls.

Sources also tell me that senators Joe Lieberman, Mark Udall and Kirsten Gillibrand will hold a press conference tomorrow urging the Dem leadership to allow the final two-week debate, arguing that this still can happen. This is no small thing: They are urging their own party leadership to do this.

Sure, there's reason for enormous skepticism that repeal will happen. The Dem leadership may balk at holding a protracted floor showdown before going home, and GOP moderates may throw up yet more procedural objections. But it could still happen, if the Dem leadership tries to make it happen.

By Greg Sargent