The Shrinking Russian Invasion (Not of the No.of deaths)

On the right How the war started ➤➤ going to the left how it is now

(New York Times)

After failing to topple Ukraine’s government in Kyiv, Russia redeployed troops for a far less ambitious goal: Seize the rest of the Donbas, beyond the area where Russia had already advanced a month ago.

Russia’s military has overwhelming superiority in weapons, if not men — tanks, warplanes, helicopters, and heavy artillery. But a month into the battle for the East, Russia has made only gradual progress along the Eastern front. 

And in a sign of strength, Ukrainian counterattacks have retaken ground outside Kharkiv, diverting Russian forces and threatening their supply lines.  

Again and again, Russia’s military has had to accept the difficult reality that it doesn’t have the force necessary to fight in too many places at once.

The area with the most critical battles is only 75 miles wide and includes three key cities: Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Sievierodonetsk. 

Russia’s war is now focused on this area. The Kremlin is targeting five routes to Sloviansk that would allow it to encircle tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops. It has moved closer in places, but it still hasn’t broken through. 

An enormous Russian force has gathered in Izium and regularly sends units down the main highway to Sloviansk. Artillery shells frontline villages, tanks batter Ukrainian defenses, and attack helicopters fly overhead.

Both sides have taken heavy casualties, but Russia has failed to overwhelm the Ukrainian fighters, who have held their positions for weeks.

In an attempt to cut off Ukrainian supply lines, Russian soldiers have also targeted the main road and rail line connecting Sloviansk to the rest of Ukraine. 

But this advance has stalled too. Each failed attempt takes a toll on Russia’s already depleted military as soldiers are injured or killed, and units become smaller and less effective.

Another advance has made more progress, taking some villages and farmland north of the town of Lyman, which is now under direct attack.

Russia’s playbook to capture towns and villages with limited manpower is brutal — destroy urban areas with heavy artillery and rocket fire, and then move in a few days later. This strategy suits the depleted Russian army, which does not have the troops required for sustained urban warfare.

But Ukrainian forces have another key defensive resource impeding Russian progress: the Severski Donets River. When a Russian battalion tried to use pontoon bridges to cross the river this month, it was a complete disaster.

Public evidence suggests well over 400 Russian soldiers may have been killed or wounded by Ukrainian artillery.  

As advances north of Sloviansk have slowed or stalled, Russia has started fighting for an even smaller area, the city of Sievierodonetsk. As the easternmost city still under Ukrainian control, Sievierodonetsk is exposed to Russian artillery on multiple sides. Shelling has destroyed vast areas of the city and civilians are left with no electricity or running water.

Ukrainian officials expect a siege similar to what Mariupol experienced. Ukrainian troops will likely hold onto Sievierodonetsk as long as they can while inflicting as many losses on Russia’s military as possible.   

Russia’s military has gained ground elsewhere in the Donbas. It has finally taken over Mariupol after negotiating the surrender of the last significant pocket of Ukrainian fighters in the Azovstal steel plant.

It also forced Ukrainian forces to withdraw from Popasna after relentless shelling and missile strikes left no buildings for them to defend the city from. In a threatening advance, Russia is now moving north from Popasna to try to encircle troops in Sievierodonetsk and prevent supplies from getting in from the west. 

But these victories aren’t enough for Russia to gain control of the Donbas, and its problems may only worsen as the war drags on. 

Russian forces are inflicting immense losses on the Ukrainian military, but they are coming at a cost to Russia’s own supply of troops and equipment. At the same time, Ukraine continues to receive weapons from NATO countries that will better equip it for launching counterattacks.

Ukraine also has a more reliable supply of fighters than Russia does. President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has been reluctant to order a national draft, and so Moscow is fighting at near peacetime staffing levels.

Without enlisting more troops, there is only so long that Russia can continue to push forward. The farther that Russian troops push, the longer their supply lines become and the more exposed they are to Ukrainian counterattacks, so Russia has to reposition troops to defend territory it has already won. 

Russia has a limited window to reestablish momentum and make significant advances. After that, it may be forced into more defensive positions, and the war could drift into a stalemate. With troops and equipment dwindling, the battle for the Donbas is likely to be the last major offensive of the war. 

Sources: Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at CNA; Konrad Muzyka, a defense analyst for Rochan Consulting; Henry Schlottman, independent military analyst; Ukrainian and Russian officials; Institute for the Study of War with American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project; OpenStreetMap.

Michael Schwirtz and Thomas Gibbons-Neff contributed reporting.