Latest on Ukraine that Matters

 

Combat Mission’ in Mariupol, Saluting ‘Heroes’

Attention turned to saving the fighters who have remained at the Azovstal steel plant for weeks under constant Russian assault. Ukraine said that rescue operations were underway and that more than 260 fighters, some seriously wounded, had been evacuated. 


Image
Credit...Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters

Here are the latest developments in the war in Ukraine.

The battle to hold off Russian forces at the Azovstal steel complex in Mariupol ended Monday, as Ukraine’s military declared the “combat mission” there over, and officials reported that fighters were being evacuated.

President Volodymyr Zelensky saluted the defenders who had sheltered civilians and fought desperately under weeks of constant Russian assault, inspiring Ukrainians with their bravery. As the focus shifted to evacuations, he said bluntly and with a tone of finality, “We hope to save the lives of our boys.”  

18 minutes ago

Reporting from Washington

The Senate voted 89 to 11 to advance the $40 billion Ukraine aid package approved last week by the House, setting up a vote to send the measure to President Biden’s desk as early as Thursday. Eleven Republicans voted against the measure, including Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, who slowed down consideration of the measure to demand greater oversight of the funds.

1 hour ago

Ukrainian authorities declare an end to the combat mission in Mariupol after weeks of Russian siege.

Image
Credit...Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters
A wounded Ukrainian service member from the besieged Azovstal steel factory in Mariupol is transported under the escort of the pro-Russian military in Novoazovsk on Monday.

KYIV, Ukraine — Ukrainian authorities announced late Monday an end to their combat operation in the besieged city of Mariupol, where Ukrainian fighters have held out for weeks in the face of near-constant Russian bombardment.

The military ordered the remaining troops who had been sheltering beneath a steel factory there to focus on efforts “to save the lives of their personnel.”

“We hope that we will be able to save the lives of our guys,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a late night video address. “I want to emphasize that Ukraine needs Ukrainian heroes alive.”

The Azovstal steel plant — the last stand of Ukrainian resistance in the decimated city — has become a powerful symbol of the suffering inflicted by Russia and the stalwart bravery of Ukrainian defenders. Billboards and murals supporting the city and the plant have appeared across the country.

In a statement late Monday, Ukraine’s General Staff said that the Mariupol garrison had “fulfilled its combat mission.”

Ukrainian officials said that evacuations from the Azovstal steel factory had begun. The military said that 264 service members, 53 of them “seriously injured,” had been taken by bus to areas controlled by Russian forces.

The announcement came hours after Russian media began reporting that buses of Ukrainian servicemen were being evacuated from the steelworks, near the center of Mariupol, the last territory in the city not to fall to Russian troops.

Deputy Defense Minister Anna Malyar said that 53 “seriously injured” people had been evacuated to a medical facility in Novoazovsk, a Ukrainian town near the Russian border controlled by Moscow-backed separatists. According to the Ukrainian military’s General Staff, another 211 people were evacuated via a humanitarian corridor to Olenivka, also under Russian control, and would then be returned to Ukrainian-held territory “under an exchange procedure.”

It was unclear how many soldiers remained inside the plant, with officials and relatives of the fighters saying in recent days that there could be as many as 2,000, including hundreds who were injured. Ukraine’s General Staff said that “measures to save the defenders who remain on the territory of Azovstal are ongoing.”

The evacuation comes after weeks of pleas from the soldiers and civilians who had been holed up in the factory with inadequate supplies or medical care.

On May 8, Mr. Zelensky announced that more than 300 civilians had been evacuated by the United Nations and the International Red Cross. Negotiating safe passage for the trapped soldiers, most of whom are from Ukraine’s elite Azov regiment, proved more difficult. Wives and relatives of the soldiers had traveled to the Vatican and to Istanbul, making impassioned pleas for assistance.

Early Tuesday, the full details of the plan remained murky.

“In order to save lives, the entire Mariupol garrison is implementing the approved decision of the Supreme Military Command and hopes for the support of the Ukrainian people,” Lt. Col. Denys Prokopenko, the commander of the now combined forces in the bunkers, said in a message posted on the garrison’s official Telegram channel Monday evening. He did not say what the order was or how it would be carried out.

Pro-Russian social media accounts speculated that the Ukrainian soldiers would be treated and then exchanged for Russian prisoners of war, but there was no official statement on the full terms of any agreement. Other pro-Russian social media accounts trumpeted the evacuation as a triumph that would deal a severe blow to the morale of Ukrainian troops fighting in the region.

Ever since the port city was surrounded by Russian forces in early March, military analysts had predicted that the soldiers would be defeated or killed any day. Yet they fought on — with the national Ukrainian military command reporting battles around the perimeter as recently as this past weekend.

At the same time, Russian forces continued to rain bombs and artillery down on the four square miles of twisted metal that used to be one of the country’s largest steel plants.

In recent days, Turkey had said that it was working on a plan to evacuate the soldiers by sea but that there was no indication Russia would accept any proposal and active fighting complicated any discussion of the matter.

Anastasia Kuznietsova contributed reporting.

‘Combat Mission’ in Mariupol, Saluting ‘Heroes’

Attention turned to saving the fighters who have remained at the Azovstal steel plant for weeks under constant Russian assault. Ukraine said that rescue operations were underway and that more than 260 fighters, some seriously wounded, had been evacuated.

Image
Credit...Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters

Here are the latest developments in the war in Ukraine.

The battle to hold off Russian forces at the Azovstal steel complex in Mariupol ended Monday, as Ukraine’s military declared the “combat mission” there over, and officials reported that fighters were being evacuated.

President Volodymyr Zelensky saluted the defenders who had sheltered civilians and fought desperately under weeks of constant Russian assault, inspiring Ukrainians with their bravery. As the focus shifted to evacuations, he said bluntly and with a tone of finality, “We hope to save the lives of our boys.” 

Catie Edmondson
18 minutes ago

Reporting from Washington

The Senate voted 89 to 11 to advance the $40 billion Ukraine aid package approved last week by the House, setting up a vote to send the measure to President Biden’s desk as early as Thursday. Eleven Republicans voted against the measure, including Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, who slowed down consideration of the measure to demand greater oversight of the funds.

1 hour ago

Ukrainian authorities declare an end to the combat mission in Mariupol after weeks of Russian siege.

Image
Credit...Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters
A wounded Ukrainian service member from the besieged Azovstal steel factory in Mariupol is transported under the escort of the pro-Russian military in Novoazovsk on Monday.

KYIV, Ukraine — Ukrainian authorities announced late Monday an end to their combat operation in the besieged city of Mariupol, where Ukrainian fighters have held out for weeks in the face of near-constant Russian bombardment.

The military ordered the remaining troops who had been sheltering beneath a steel factory there to focus on efforts “to save the lives of their personnel.”

“We hope that we will be able to save the lives of our guys,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a late night video address. “I want to emphasize that Ukraine needs Ukrainian heroes alive.”

The Azovstal steel plant — the last stand of Ukrainian resistance in the decimated city — has become a powerful symbol of the suffering inflicted by Russia and the stalwart bravery of Ukrainian defenders. Billboards and murals supporting the city and the plant have appeared across the country.

In a statement late Monday, Ukraine’s General Staff said that the Mariupol garrison had “fulfilled its combat mission.”

Ukrainian officials said that evacuations from the Azovstal steel factory had begun. The military said that 264 service members, 53 of them “seriously injured,” had been taken by bus to areas controlled by Russian forces.

The announcement came hours after Russian media began reporting that buses of Ukrainian servicemen were being evacuated from the steelworks, near the center of Mariupol, the last territory in the city not to fall to Russian troops.

Deputy Defense Minister Anna Malyar said that 53 “seriously injured” people had been evacuated to a medical facility in Novoazovsk, a Ukrainian town near the Russian border controlled by Moscow-backed separatists. According to the Ukrainian military’s General Staff, another 211 people were evacuated via a humanitarian corridor to Olenivka, also under Russian control, and would then be returned to Ukrainian-held territory “under an exchange procedure.”

It was unclear how many soldiers remained inside the plant, with officials and relatives of the fighters saying in recent days that there could be as many as 2,000, including hundreds who were injured. Ukraine’s General Staff said that “measures to save the defenders who remain on the territory of Azovstal are ongoing.”

The evacuation comes after weeks of pleas from the soldiers and civilians who had been holed up in the factory with inadequate supplies or medical care.

On May 8, Mr. Zelensky announced that more than 300 civilians had been evacuated by the United Nations and the International Red Cross. Negotiating safe passage for the trapped soldiers, most of whom are from Ukraine’s elite Azov regiment, proved more difficult. Wives and relatives of the soldiers had traveled to the Vatican and to Istanbul, making impassioned pleas for assistance.

Early Tuesday, the full details of the plan remained murky.

“In order to save lives, the entire Mariupol garrison is implementing the approved decision of the Supreme Military Command and hopes for the support of the Ukrainian people,” Lt. Col. Denys Prokopenko, the commander of the now combined forces in the bunkers, said in a message posted on the garrison’s official Telegram channel Monday evening. He did not say what the order was or how it would be carried out.

Pro-Russian social media accounts speculated that the Ukrainian soldiers would be treated and then exchanged for Russian prisoners of war, but there was no official statement on the full terms of any agreement. Other pro-Russian social media accounts trumpeted the evacuation as a triumph that would deal a severe blow to the morale of Ukrainian troops fighting in the region.

Ever since the port city was surrounded by Russian forces in early March, military analysts had predicted that the soldiers would be defeated or killed any day. Yet they fought on — with the national Ukrainian military command reporting battles around the perimeter as recently as this past weekend.

At the same time, Russian forces continued to rain bombs and artillery down on the four square miles of twisted metal that used to be one of the country’s largest steel plants.

In recent days, Turkey had said that it was working on a plan to evacuate the soldiers by sea but that there was no indication Russia would accept any proposal and active fighting complicated any discussion of the matter.

Anastasia Kuznietsova contributed reporting.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Failure of Russia but is not over yet~~~~~~~~~~~

The first phase of the war in Ukraine was largely a failure for Russia. The second phase is not going very well so far either.

After failing to capture Kyiv and oust Ukraine’s government, Vladimir Putin and his advisers turned to a less ambitious goal. They are trying to capture the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine. Russian troops do control large parts of Donbas and have made some recent progress. But it has been modest, and Ukraine has also retaken some strategically important territory.

“Russia’s Donbas offensive has certainly not been as dramatic in terms of gains as we thought it might be,” Michael Schwirtz, a Times correspondent who has been covering the war from the front lines in Ukraine, told me.

Today’s newsletter reviews the evidence of Russia’s recent failures and explains why Russian forces could nonetheless make more progress in the coming weeks. Before doing so, I want to spend a moment on basic geography, which I find helpful in making sense of the war.

Putin is trying to dominate a crescent of land that stretches from the easternmost part of Ukraine, on the Russian border, to the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014. Much of the eastern section is known as the Donbas region and includes two provinces (or oblasts), Donetsk and Luhansk. If you can remember the information in this one paragraph, you’ll have an easier time following the analysis of the war. 

Russian troops have not taken control of any major cities in the Donbas region that they did not already control in February, at the start of the invasion, my colleague Julian Barnes notes. “Russian morale remains bad,” Julian says. “The casualties are bad.”

British officials made a stunning announcement yesterday: Russia appears to have lost about one-third of the troops it has sent to Ukraine. The officials also said Russia’s Donbas push had “lost momentum and fallen significantly behind schedule.”

One recent battle was so deadly for Russia that it has led to criticism from pro-Russia bloggers.

“The Russian military has not yet achieved Putin’s stated territorial objectives of securing all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and is unlikely to do so,” Katherine Lawlor and Mason Clark of the Institute for the Study of War in Washington wrote on Friday. Yaroslav Trofimov of The Wall Street Journal has made similar points.

My colleague Michael Schwirtz noted that, until two weeks ago, he had not seen an aircraft in the sky for more than a month. But he has since seen several fighter planes and attack helicopters, all evidently Ukrainian. Russia’s inability to control the air is hampering its ability to advance.

Avril Haines, the U.S. director of intelligence, told Congress last week that Russia was “increasingly unlikely” to meet its territorial goals in the coming weeks.

Putin’s edge

In the first phase of the war, Russian troops spread themselves too thinly across Ukraine as they tried to capture much of the country. Russian supply lines often could not keep up with their fighting units, and Ukraine’s military took advantage, surprising much of the world by repelling Russia’s advance.

“The Russians have since changed strategy,” Julian said. “They are moving much slower.”

Russia is effectively trying to win a war of attrition, gaining a small amount of territory each week and ultimately controlling all of the east. Putin could then try to reach a negotiated settlement that allows him to annex parts of eastern Ukraine. Many Ukrainians, as well as their staunchest allies in the West, fear that the U.S. and E.U. might accept such a settlement.

Putin’s biggest advantage remains his edge in resources: Russia has more soldiers and more military equipment than Ukraine. The West has narrowed this advantage by sending weapons to Ukraine, but Russia has destroyed some of that equipment in the fighting. One example: Some analysts believe Ukraine may be running low on Turkish-made drones that have been effective in attacking Russian troops. 

That’s why Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, continues to plead with the West for more weapons. President Biden and leaders of both parties in Congress support a $40 billion package that the House has passed and the Senate seems likely to pass soon. Much of Europe has also aligned itself strongly with Ukraine; Sweden and Finland have moved in recent days to join NATO.

Still, Putin’s new go-slow strategy could succeed, especially if the West ultimately tires of helping Ukraine. In the U.S., many Trump-friendly Republicans are already skeptical of the war: Tucker Carlson makes this case on his Fox News show, and 57 House Republicans voted against the $40 billion aid package.

On the other hand, Russia faces its own domestic challenges: Sanctions are damaging its economy, and the industrial sector — which cannot easily import parts — is struggling to make enough precision weapons, Julian said.

Russia is also running low on troops who are available to fight. Putin could increase these numbers by instituting a draft. But doing so would require him to acknowledge that the war in Ukraine is, in fact, war rather than the modest operation he has portrayed it as — probably because he knows public support is soft.

“As it stands, Russian options are shrinking,” Michael Kofman of CNA, a Washington research group, wrote recently. “The more they drag their feet, the further their ability to sustain the war deteriorates, and the worse their subsequent options.”

For now, Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, a top U.S. intelligence official, told Congress, “the Russians aren’t winning, and the Ukrainians aren’t winning.”

Related: Even if Russia continues to struggle, the West’s endgame is not so simple, Ross Douthat of Times Opinion explains.

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