How Was North Korea Allowed to Go Nuclear? The Road to The Nuke
Tensions between the United States and North Korea appear to be reaching a boiling point.
On the one hand, President Donald Trump made it clear that America will respond with “fire and fury like the world has never seen,” should North Korea continue its threats. On the other hand, North Korea is reportedly examining Guam as a potential target for a missile attack.
There are currently six thousand U.S. military personnel on Guam — an island 2,231 miles away from North Korea.
Further, a report came out on Tuesday indicating that North Korea successfully developed miniaturized nuclear warheads capable of fitting inside their missiles... and reaching the U.S.
The Arms Control Association estimates that North Korea has up to ten nuclear weapons in its stockpile. But the path to them becoming a nuclear threat began long before the Trump, Obama, or Bush administrations.
In 1993, a U.S. satellite picked up an image at a facility in Yongbyon that gave cause for alarm. The image revealed a plant with the capability to develop weapons-grade plutonium — a vital ingredient in nuclear weapons.
As a result — William Perry — Clinton's Secretary of Defense drew up a plan to take out the Yongbyon plant with F-117s — which at the time was the primary stealth aircraft in the U.S. arsenal. In 1994, it appeared that the decision to strike might be given the green light.
The attack never happened, though. Perry had concerns about the blowback that would fall on South Korea following such an operation.
At the time, North Korea was ill-prepared for any military engagement, as its chief economic supporter, the former USSR, had greatly reduced its financial relationship with the East Asian state. Moscow itself was still reeling from the collapse of the Soviet Union two years prior, and North Korea was about to face another beast in itself: a famine that would kill one-to-three million of its people.
After weighing the options for about a year, the Clinton administration picked diplomacy. On October 18, 1994, Clinton announced the United States had made a deal with North Korea. In exchange for freezing its nuclear program, Clinton offered 4 billion in energy aid to the struggling nation (costs which Japan and South Korea would later fulfill) and two state-of-the-art nuclear electric generating plants.
Clinton said:
Good afternoon. I am pleased that the United States and North Korea yesterday reached agreement on the text of a framework document on North Korea's nuclear program. This agreement will help to achieve a longstanding and vital American objective: an end to the threat of nuclear proliferation on the Korean Peninsula.
This agreement is good for the United States, good for our allies, and good for the safety of the entire world. It reduces the danger of the threat of nuclear spreading in the region. It's a crucial step toward drawing North Korea into the global community.
But North Korea never planned to keep to the terms of the deal. The agreement crumbled in 2002, and in 2003, North Korea withdrew from Non-Proliferation Treaty, echoing the position it had in 1994, before Clinton's failed diplomatic effort was put into play.
Its first nuclear test happened in 2006 with materials produced from the facility Clinton's senior military leaders were thinking of destroying in 1994 — Yongbyon.
Following the test in 2006, the New York Times reported:
Three years ago, just as President Bush was sending American troops toward Iraq, the North threw out the few remaining weapons inspectors living at their nuclear complex in Yongbyon, and moved 8,000 nuclear fuel rods they had kept under lock and key.
Those rods contained enough plutonium, experts said, to produce five or six nuclear weapons, though it is unclear how many the North now stockpiles.
In fact, the Yongbyon site would become the beacon of North Korea's nuclear program. The biggest concern regarding the facility is its desire to produce a uranium-based device.
At this time, there is no evidence to back up North Korea's claim of possessing thermonuclear weapons. To confirm such a claim, air particles in the atmosphere would need to be analyzed. Regardless, North Korea claims to have a hydrogen bomb after its 2016 underground nuclear test, though, U.S. intelligence only believes they have atomic weapons in their possession.
Such news would be cause for concern, as hydrogen bombs are much deadlier and destructive than atom bombs.
According to The Diplomat, North Korea's nuclear efforts rely on Yongbyon:
An assessment by experts from the U.S.-Korea Institute at Johns Hopkins University and the National Defense University released last year outlines several scenarios for nuclear stockpile growth in North Korea, most hinging on the country’s ability to steadily use Yongbyon and other facilities to generate plutonium and possibly uranium.
A U.S. intelligence analyst, who asked to remain anonymous, emphasized just how significant the Yongbyon site is.
“The DPRK is a state with few resources. They have little to trade, and land is at a premium. Though they can squirrel some things around, the country['s] resources limit that ability. Effectively they have to put most of their most valuable eggs into one, vulnerable and well-known basket: Yongbyon.” The analyst continued, “Yongbyon is absolutely critical. Take it out, and it's game over for North Korea's nuclear program.”
While we can't go back and change the past, we can learn from it. The Clinton administration put a Band-Aid on an arterial bleed. 23 years later, here we are with a nuclear-armed North Korea and tensions on the peninsula at a fever pitch.
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