Putin by his own doing find himself cornered like never before

While international condemnation of Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely to increase after a Malaysia Airlines jet was shot down last week, it’s unclear whether such pressures will be enough to cause the leader to abandon his campaign of meddling in eastern Ukraine.

Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 — en route from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur with 298 on board — crashed in a rebel-held area of eastern Ukraine on Thursday. According to the U.S. military, the jetliner was shot down by a surface-to-air missile, likely by separatists supplied and trained by Russia.

“Putin is cornered like never before, and the question is how he behaves,” says Anders Aslund, a senior fellow with the Peterson Institute of International Economics in Washington, D.C. “He needs to do something not to become a complete pariah.”

No action yet

Condemnation has been swift since it became clear the Malaysian jetliner was shot down, but world leaders have yet to take concrete action.

Ian Brzezinski, who served as deputy assistant secretary of defense for Europe and NATO policy under President George W. Bush, says the United States and Europe should bolster Ukraine’s military with more advanced anti-tank weapons, surface-to-air missiles, intelligence and advisers, while also dramatically increasing sanctions on Russia.

“This is an incident where Putin now has blood on his hands that is the blood of Westerners,” he said. “We should hit the Russian economy hard. ... Incremental steps are not going to be sufficient.”

At the crash site, there are signs Russia and its separatist allies in Ukraine may be trying to obstruct the investigation.

Crash site

On Saturday, Ukraine charged that separatists had removed at least 38 bodies from the crash site, and accused Russia of helping rebels destroy evidence. Rebel leaders denied such charges and said they were encouraging the international community to help with the cleanup.

Michael Bociurkiw, spokesman for the Organization for Cooperation and Security in Europe, told reporters that the 24-member monitoring delegation’s movements were being limited by rebels at the crash site Saturday and that the team was unable to conduct a full-scale investigation.

“We have to be very careful with our movements because of all the security,” Bociurkiw said.

Meanwhile, U.S., Ukrainian and other Western officials have pointed at intercepted conversations and rebel social media posts that provide strong evidence that a surface-to-air missile fired by pro-Russia separatists brought down the plane.

‘Game changer’   

It is also unclear who is in possession of the flight’s recorders. Igor Strelkov, a rebel military commander in the Donetsk region, reported on his website that eight of the aircraft’s 12 recording devices had been recovered, but later denied having them.

Brzezinski says the incident is only a “potential game changer,” because it depends on how the West will respond.

“If the West sticks to its previous path of slowly ratcheting up sanctions, (Putin) is going to stick to his previous course, which is escalations,” Brzezinski said. “Every time we’ve ratcheted up sanctions, Russia’s reaction has been to provide more assistance to separatists.”

Putin is likely to adjust his reaction based on European and U.S. behavior, says Steven Pifer, who helped shape U.S. policy on Russia and Ukraine in the administrations of former presidents George W. Bush and Bill Clinton.

“Putin is calculating how much blowback will there be from the international community,” Pifer said. “He’s going to look mainly at Europe.”

IDENTIFYING VICTIMS  

Forensic teams fanned out across the Netherlands on Saturday to collect material that will help positively identify the remains of victims of the Malaysia Airlines plane crash. Other Dutch forensic experts were en route to the crash scene, Foreign Minister Frans Timmermans said in Ukraine.

• Also, European Union police coordination body Europol said it would assist Interpol and other agencies in identifying victims in Ukraine.

• Meanwhile, Malaysia Airlines released the full list of passengers and crew and appealed to family and friends of the victims to contact the carrier so it can get a full picture of the next of kin.

Oren Dorell, USA Today