Trump's Win Erases World Leadership of the U.S.

 

When it comes to Donald J. Trump, the world seems just as polarized as the United States.

News of his comfortable victory in the U.S. presidential election was met with a spectrum of emotions from global leaders. America’s traditional allies in Europe and Asia issued polite, if anxious, public statements; Ukraine was openly obsequious; and some nationalist and right-wing governments sounded notes of triumphant vindication.

One thing is clear: Those who thought or hoped the first Trump term was an aberration were wrong. Overnight, America looks like a different kind of superpower: more isolationist and less predictable. The stakes, from the Middle East and Ukraine to global trade and climate change, could not be higher.

Here’s how my fellow New York Times foreign correspondents say Mr. Trump’s re-election could affect the regions and issues they cover.

— KATRIN BENNHOLD

The New York Times

China

( David Pierson is a foreign correspondent for The Times, covering China)

China is bracing for a trade war. Mr. Trump has pledged to impose a blanket tariff on Chinese exports, which Beijing has been relying on to offset the weak state of its economy.

Few in China expect improved relations with the United States, which are already contentious. Mr. Trump, during his first term, adopted a confrontational approach toward China, imposing tariffs, restricting Chinese technology companies and deepening ties with Taiwan, the self-governing island claimed by Beijing.

Mr. Trump is widely regarded around the world as a transactional leader. But Chinese officials told me privately they expect to have difficulty negotiating with his administration because they view Mr. Trump as duplicitous. They also worry that tensions over Taiwan could worsen if he surrounds himself with hawkish advisers.

Chinese officials do see a potential upside if Mr. Trump pulls the United States back from its role as a global leader. That could provide China with an opportunity to fill the vacuum, drive more countries to China’s side, economically and diplomatically, and weaken U.S. alliances that have constrained China.

However, those changes could take years to materialize, and the immediate concern is that another Trump term could sow global instability when China’s economy can least afford it.

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India

headshot Mujib Mashal is The Times’s South Asia bureau chief.

India is better positioned than many major countries for a second Trump term. It is a counterweight to China that may help diversify global supply chains. Prime Minister Narendra Modi also shared a close bond with Mr. Trump in his first term.

But Mr. Trump’s chronic unpredictability could challenge the Indian bureaucracy’s infamous preference for a slow and steady pace. And on the campaign trail, he singled out India’s high tariffs on American goods, saying he would reciprocate.

Immigration is another point of friction. Mr. Trump, in his first term, restricted the visas used by many Indians in the United States, who also make up the third-largest population of undocumented U.S. immigrants. Mr. Trump’s threatened deportations could have a major effect on relations.

Africa

(Abdi Latif Dahir is The Times’s East Africa correspondent.)

In a rapidly changing and young continent, millions will be watching to see how Mr. Trump’s second term might be different.

During his first term, his engagement with the continent fluctuated from disdain to neglect — he did not visit the continent once. Now, Trump is expected to take a transactional approach to Africa that promotes American business interests.

He will face at least one big decision affecting the continent: There is legislation set to expire in 2025 that grants duty-free access to the U.S. market for dozens of African nations. That law could be a target if Mr. Trump aggressively pushes for tariffs. His administration will also likely battle China for resources on the continent, especially the rare minerals needed for electric vehicles and wind turbines.

A Trump presidency could reduce American military influence in Africa, even as civil wars and violent extremism spread across the continent. Russia has become a favorite security partner to many African governments, and U.S. troops have been kicked out of countries like Niger and Chad.

Israel and Gaza

 (Patrick Kingsley is The Times’s Jerusalem bureau chief.)

While Israelis of many political backgrounds hoped Mr. Trump would win, his victory was most swiftly celebrated by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and members of his right-wing government.

The Israeli right hopes Mr. Trump will back the return of Jewish settlers to Gaza, support tougher military actions against Iran, agree to Israel’s annexation of the occupied West Bank, and turn a blind eye to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s efforts to undermine the power of the courts.

“This is a huge victory!” Mr. Netanyahu said in a statement. “Congratulations on history’s greatest comeback!”

Still, Mr. Trump is unpredictable, and has indicated in recent months that his priorities may not always align with Israel’s. Last month, he appeared to rule out regime change in Iran, a dream of Israeli politicians. And in March, he expressed discomfort with some of the images of destruction emerging from Gaza, telling Israeli journalists: “You're losing a lot of support, you have to finish up, you have to get the job done.”

Palestinian leaders in the West Bank did their best to attract Mr. Trump’s attention, swiftly sending their congratulations despite having fallen out with him during his first term. A Hamas spokesman, Basem Naim, issued a muted statement, calling the election “a private matter for the Americans.”

 

Mexico

 (Natalie Kitroeff is The Times’s Mexico City bureau chief.)

Mexico is preparing for a second Trump term that could be even more disruptive than the first.

The president-elect has promised a slew of policies that could have enormous consequences: using U.S. military force against Mexico’s drug cartels and sending thousands of troops to the border; putting sweeping tariffs on allies and adversaries alike; and implementing the largest deportation campaign in American history, which would cause significant social and economic fallout for Mexico.

Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, urged calm. “There’s no reason to worry,” she told the business community and Mexicans at home and in the United States. She congratulated Trump in an understated tweet: "I am sure that we will continue to work together in a coordinated manner, with dialogue and respect for our sovereignties." The stakes are certainly high: Mexico recently surpassed China to become the largest source of imports into the United States.

 

It’s clear that Mr. Trump’s victory is going to have an enormous impact on Russia’s war in Ukraine. But nobody in Moscow or Kyiv knows exactly what it will be.

In Russia, there’s the hope that Mr. Trump follows through on his frequent promises to end the war quickly. His running mate, J.D. Vance, has outlined a peace deal similar to what analysts believe the Kremlin wants: an agreement that keeps Russia in control of the territory it has captured, and a guarantee that Ukraine will never join NATO.

But the Kremlin seems skeptical that Mr. Trump would actually push for such a deal, especially because of his track record: There was jubilation in Moscow when Mr. Trump won in 2016, but over the next four years, U.S. sanctions against Russia only increased, and Mr. Trump sent antitank weapons to Ukraine.

Ukraine would also have to agree to a deal — though it might be made to do so, under duress, if the United States cuts military aid. And while there are signs of growing public interest in a settlement, President Volodymyr Zelensky has publicly remained steadfast in refusing to give up Ukrainian territory or the prospect of NATO membership. On Wednesday, he quickly made clear that he would seek to have Mr. Trump on his side, as one of the first world leaders to congratulate Mr. Trump in a post on X.

 

Climate

  (Somini Sengupta is The Times’s international climate reporter)

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Mr. Trump’s victory is a setback to the world’s attempt to rein in dangerous levels of warming.

The United States is history’s largest polluter, so it matters enormously whether it reduces climate pollution. Mr. Trump’s record shows he has no desire to do so.

He is likely, once more, to reverse many U.S. climate regulations. He has said he would again pull out of the Paris climate agreement. And he has championed more oil and gas drilling, when the United States is already the biggest producer in the world. New drilling licenses could lock in more planet-heating greenhouse gas emissions for decades, making extreme weather hazards more likely.

But the world has also changed since his first term. Renewable energy is cheaper than ever, with much of the supply chain controlled by China. The Biden administration’s landmark climate law, the Inflation Reduction Act, has drawn new manufacturing to American shores. It may be difficult for Mr. Trump to dismantle it altogether.

 

Europe and NATO

(Steven Erlanger is the chief diplomatic correspondent for The Times, covering Europe.)

The victory of Mr. Trump is hardly a surprise to the United States’ European allies, but it will test their ability to maintain solidarity, to build their militaries and to defend their economic interests if Mr. Trump applies the major tariffs that he has threatened.

“How do we deal with a United States that sees us more as a competitor and a nuisance than a friend to work with?” said Georgina Wright, deputy director for International Studies at the Institut Montaigne in Paris. “It should unite Europe, but that does not mean Europe will unite.”

Some European countries have tried to prepare for a Trump victory. But with both the French and German governments weakened domestically, it may be difficult to build a strong European response.

The unpredictability of Mr. Trump — empowered by Republican lawmakers — concerns European allies. But they expect Mr. Trump to maintain some of his positions: skepticism of multilateral alliances, an admiration for President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and a dislike of President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, said François Heisbourg, a French defense analyst.

Mr. Trump has been effective in demanding more military spending from fellow NATO members, said Mr. Heisbourg. But the alliance’s Article 5, which commits members to collective defense, “is not supposed to be a protection racket,” he said.