Belarus Hints They can Hurt Russia in Ways They Don't Understand

 

Ukrainians prepare for a Russian invasion by going underground

 

— Michael Schwirtz and Maria Varenikova

KYIV, Ukraine — President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine opened a new session of Parliament on Tuesday by calling for unity in the country, offering assurance that its economy was stable, and praising the enormous show of diplomatic and military support from Ukraine’s allies.

One thing he did not mention: was Russia and its buildup of troops on Ukraine’s borders.

For weeks, Mr. Zelensky has tried to play down the threat posed by the military buildup even while welcoming a host of visiting foreign dignitaries, many of whom view the threat as very real.

On Tuesday, Mr. Zelensky is scheduled to meet with Prime Minister Boris Johnson of Britain, whose government has pursued a more muscular role in the showdown between Europe and Russia. Britain has supplied Ukraine with anti-tank missile systems and other weapons, and last month made the unusual decision to publicize intelligence about an alleged Russian plot to install a pro-Moscow government in Kyiv.

Last month, Mr. Johnson gave an ominous speech in which he warned that Ukraine faced the danger of renewed invasion from “a large and powerful country massing troops and tanks on the border.”

“If the worst happens and the destructive firepower of the Russian army were to engulf Ukraine’s towns and cities, I shudder to contemplate the tragedy that would ensue,” Mr. Johnson said.

Though wary of what Mr. Zelensky has described as overhyped warning about a Russian invasion, the Ukrainian leader and his government have made clear that the military support pouring into Kyiv is welcome and have urged Ukraine’s allies to do more. In the last week and a half, six cargo jets carrying 500 tons of American-donated military equipment and ammunition have arrived in Kyiv, and more are on the way, Ukraine’s defense minister, Oleksii Reznikov, wrote on Twitter on Tuesday.

And last month the United States authorized Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania to send anti-tank Javelin missiles and antiaircraft Stingers to Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian generals say, however, that severe gaps in the country’s military capabilities leave little hope of mounting a serious defense against Russia’s overwhelming air superiority.

Coming to Kyiv to address the guns arrayed on Ukraine’s borders is something of a respite for Mr. Johnson, who has been under a different kind of siege at home. A scandal over apparent violations of Covid-19 lockdown rules by Mr. Johnson and his staff at the height of the pandemic has threatened to cut his tenure short.

Tuesday’s visits were part of a flurry of diplomatic activity aimed at reassuring Ukraine that it has a seat at the table while more powerful countries engage in high-stakes diplomacy with Russia. In his speech on Tuesday, Mr. Zelensky said there had been about 80 visits from representatives of foreign governments and international organizations in recent weeks, including by two U.S. congressional delegations and Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken.

The visits may themselves have a deterrent effect. Speaking to reporters on Monday, Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s foreign minister, said the “parade of visits” by foreign dignitaries to Kyiv was part of a strategy to stave off attack — the theory being that Mr. Putin would be less likely to begin a military offensive if a foreign leader were in town.

Mr. Zelensky also plans to host visits by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey and Prime Minister Mark Rutte of the Netherlands.

Still, Mr. Kuleba cautioned that the string of visits was no guarantee of restraint by Russia, saying, “Who knows what is in Putin’s head?”

— Michael Schwirtz and Maria Varenikova

 

An apparent hack of the railway system in Belarus by activists trying to disrupt a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine could be a prelude to a vicious cyber-war, NATO and Ukrainian security officials have told VICE World News.

 

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This week a group calling itself the Belarusian Cyber-Partisans claimed to have hacked and encrypted key databases in the state railway computer system. The group said it was part of an effort to disrupt the transport of Russian forces in the country under the guise of military exercises and force the release of detained opposition activists, according to Yuliana Shemetovets, a New York-based Belarusian activist who is not a member of the group but volunteered to act as a spokesperson for the group. 

Alexander Lukashenko’s regime in Minsk – helped by support from Russian President Vladimir Putin – survived a peaceful uprising following a widely disputed 2020 re-election. After a brutal crackdown on political opposition, including mass arrests, deportations and international air piracy, the Belarusian opposition has been mostly forced into exile. As a result of Putin backing Lukashenko, the activists consider Russian troop movements inside Belarus an obvious target. 

Five days after the group’s claims first emerged, it’s still not clear what the reported hack achieved, although there are some indications it disrupted electronic operations. 

Alexander Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin laugh as they play ice hockey during a summit in February 2020. Photo: Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images

ALEXANDER LUKASHENKO AND VLADIMIR PUTIN LAUGH AS THEY PLAY ICE HOCKEY DURING A SUMMIT IN FEBRUARY 2020. PHOTO: MIKHAIL SVETLOV/GETTY IMAGES

Shemetovets said the operation was carefully planned to avoid major travel disruptions or rail accidents that would impact ordinary people in Belarus. 

She denied any link between the Cyber-Partisans and Western or Ukrainian intelligence services, pointing out the Belarusian opposition has never been treated as a high priority for Western intelligence in the recent past. But she said the operation was conducted independently by opposition activists who once worked in the country’s well-respected computer science community. 

A NATO intelligence official – who cannot be named in the press – said the hackers appeared independent and had not done anything from a technical standpoint that requires the help of a state intelligence service.   

“I have no reason to doubt they’re an independent outfit and don’t appear to have done [more than] a decent hacker might do,” said the NATO intelligence officer from a Western European country they did not want to be identified. “If I had first-hand information I couldn’t have spoken with you. But it's an important moment and I think plenty of services in opposition to Russia are pleased to see it happen.”

A Ukrainian soldier takes his position in trenches near Zolote, Eastern Ukraine, this week. Photo: Wolfgang Schwan/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

A UKRAINIAN SOLDIER TAKES HIS POSITION IN TRENCHES NEAR ZOLOTE, EASTERN UKRAINE, THIS WEEK. PHOTO: WOLFGANG SCHWAN/ANADOLU AGENCY VIA GETTY IMAGES

A second intelligence official based in Brussels declined comment on the question of external support for the operation but said its effectiveness was of great interest to their service.

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“Something happened but it's possible that there was less disruption than there was the sense there could be future disruption,” said the official, who refused to further describe the assessment their service is conducting, which remains ongoing. 

“I can confirm there’s technical concern by both the Russians and Belarusians about this incident,” the official said. “It sent a message [that] their security infrastructure both physical and cyber ….can't be properly secured.”

In terms of state-sponsored cyber attacks by NATO in the face of further aggression, both sources agreed that Russia’s combination of widespread internet use, chaotic bureaucratic culture, and widespread corruption on virtually every societal level leaves the country uniquely vulnerable to aggressive cyber operations that could be deadly. 

“In Russia? What do you want turning off?” said the second official. “How hard do you think it would be for the world’s best hackers backed by a major state to wreck Russia’s cyberinfrastructure, black everything out, and get people killed in accidents?”

But that would be terrorism said both officials, agreeing it’s part of the legal argument against working with independent outfits such as the Cyber Partisans, who could never be completely controlled.

Soldiers salute after unloading Russian military equipment in Belarus. Photo: Russian Defence Ministry\TASS via Getty Images

SOLDIERS SALUTE AFTER UNLOADING RUSSIAN MILITARY EQUIPMENT IN BELARUS. PHOTO: RUSSIAN DEFENCE MINISTRY\TASS VIA GETTY IMAGES

But the first official said there were still plenty of poorly defended legitimate targets for anti-Russian activists or intelligence services to attack should conditions in Ukraine escalate. “Target specific military and communications, databases, banks, telecom,” said the second official. 

“But while the Russians can’t protect their own systems, they certainly can strike back and this is why such operations become far above my level,” they added. “Political question now: The value versus risk of retaliation.”

Russia has a long history of effective cyber-operations including major hacks across the US, Western Europe and Ukraine, and Russian hackers are considered extremely dangerous adversaries by NATO. On Friday the UK’s National Cyber Security Centre warned British businesses to strengthen their digital security due to a raised threat of Russian-based cyber-attacks. 

But it's clear that even non-state groups have a strong ability to hit widely across both Belarus and Russia.

“There are plenty of activists, like we see in Belarus, with ability and motivation to go after Putin and Lukashenko’s regimes and Ukraine has a serious capacity of their own,” said the first NATO officer. “It’s better to keep an eye on them but let them operate on their own. How much does someone need to hack a railway database in Belarus? [In] Ukraine there will be some coordination but if the country comes under invasion, we’d expect them to be very aggressive in attacking Russian systems, and the Russians attacking back.”

In a brief interview, a Ukrainian intelligence official who works in cyber activities confirmed that Ukraine had planned responses to any eventual Russian invasion.

“There’s always endless ‘kinetic’ activity between Ukraine and Russia, it’s an ongoing battlefield,” said the Ukrainian official. “So if the ground war escalates, we will escalate in cyber,” they said.

“But so will the Russians. But we think we can hurt them in ways they have yet to understand, while we know what they can do to us. They've done it repeatedly, we are prepared.”