Here are the current justices, their ages, the presidents who appointed them and when they joined the court. Five were appointed by Republicans and four by Democrats, and their ideologies tend to line up accordingly.
Clarence Thomas, 72 (George H.W. Bush, 1991)
Ruth Bader Ginsburg, 87 (Bill Clinton, 1993)
Stephen Breyer, 81 (Bill Clinton, 1994)
Chief Justice John Roberts, 65 (George W. Bush, 2005)
Samuel Alito, 70 (George W. Bush, 2006)
Sonia Sotomayor, 66 (Barack Obama, 2009)
Elena Kagan, 60 (Barack Obama, 2010)
Neil Gorsuch, 52 (Donald Trump, 2017)
Brett Kavanaugh, 55 (Donald Trump, 2018)
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2. Retirement Plans?
Retirements are usually announced around the end of the court’s term, and speculation this year focuses squarely on the two oldest conservative justices: Thomas and Alito. The thinking is that if they want to be replaced with a fellow conservative, the train might be leaving the station for at least four years, given Trump’s struggles in reelection polls. It would be a brutal political fight, but Mitch McConnell’s Republican Senate could well serve up a right-leaning replacement by Election Day.
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3. Electioneering
Such a fight could boost Trump: Many credit the Supreme Court for galvanizing the religious right to his side in 2016. Trump released a list of possible SCOTUS picks that year as McConnell blocked Obama from filling a vacancy (pour one out for Merrick Garland). Both Trump and Biden plan to release their own short lists this year, with Biden vowing to appoint the first Black woman to the court. One problem? There are precious few Black women in the upper ranks of the federal judiciary, meaning Biden might have to look in unlikely places.
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Beyond Black women, a name to watch for possible Biden vacancies: Mariano-Florentino CuĂ©llar, the Mexico-born California Supreme Court justice. A Swiss Army-knife intellectual, he’s spent his career exploring the intersection of legal arrangements and governing institutions across artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, criminal justice, public health and more.
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If Trump gets another appointment, the first name on everyone’s lips will be Amy Coney Barrett. Previously seen as the backup plan to an imperiled Kavanaugh nomination, Barrett is a devout Catholic Midwestern mother of seven who has a more “relaxed” view of court precedents. Hint: Roe v. Wade. Oh, and she’s only 48.
First published on OZY today.
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