June 21, 2019

Impeachment Whip Count

If you were to go by the main media you might get the feeling
all democrats on the hill are for impeachment.
When you go by the numbers a different picture emerges. Yes many are
for impeachment but many are with the Speaker in wanting to get more
facts to the american people to get them behind the process.
72 House Democrats and one House Republican now publicly support launching an impeachment inquiry against President Trump, according to an Axios analysis.
Why it matters: The whip count surged in the aftermath of Robert Mueller's statement last week, and again after Trump told ABC News that he would consider accepting intelligence on opponents from foreign nationals. But even still, pro-impeachment Democrats still only amount to slightly over a quarter of the 235-member caucus. 
  • That figure is likely to stay well below the threshold necessary to launch impeachment in the House until the moment — if it ever comes — that Speaker Nancy Pelosi gives her blessing.
By the numbers:
  • 14 of the 24 Democrats on the House Judiciary Committee publicly support an impeachment inquiry. 21 are needed to refer an impeachment resolution to the House floor.
  • Of the 8 Democrats that Axios identified as "influential" — the 3 top members of leadership and 5 committee chairs investigating Trump — only one publicly supports impeachment: Financial Services Chair Maxine Waters. Judiciary Committee Chair Jerrold Nadler has reportedly pushed privately to open an impeachment inquiry.
  • None of the 17 Democrats running in "toss-up" districts in 2020 are pro-impeachment, according to the Cook Political Report.
The big picture: Pelosi has long wagered that impeachment would be fruitless without overwhelming public support, and right now, the public isn't there. 41% of the public supported impeachment as of May 31, down significantly from an all-time high of 47% in September 2018, according to a CNN poll.
  • That doesn't account for the conventional wisdom that a Republican-controlled Senate would never vote to convict Trump and remove him from office even if the House impeached him.
The bottom line: Many of the Democrats who publicly support impeachment are the same ones that are already known for being outspoken critics of the president. That masks the reality that 75% of the caucus, including its leader, remains opposed. 
Editor's note: The graphic has been updated to clarify that the list includes both House members who have called for impeachment and those who support launching an inquiry Graphic: Andrew Witherspoon, Lazaro Gamio/Axios 
218 needed to impeach
362 are against, or have no public position
164 Democrats, 198 Republicans 

73 are for an impeachment inquiry
72 Democrats, 1 Republican:  ↡↡↡see below

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