CNN Says There Are Two Democrats with The Highest 2020 Upside! Not Biden nor Sanders

 

 Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg

       

Chris Cillizza, Editor at Large

CNN

Washington (CNN)It's easy to look at a poll of the 2020 Democratic primary race and conclude that Joe Biden is the front-runner, with Bernie Sanders as the alternative if the former vice president falters.

It's easy because it's, broadly speaking, true! In the new CNN-SSRS national survey, Biden is at 32% in the hypothetical Democratic 2020 primary, while Sanders is in second with 18%. None of the other 20+ candidates receives double-digit support.

That's where the race is TODAY. And it may be where the race winds up. But if you dig just a little bit into the numbers, there are two candidates not named "Biden" or "Sanders" who jump out as potentially strong bets to make noise in the contest: Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg.  

Here's why: The California senator and the mayor of South Bend, Indiana, have two specific things going for them:

1) They are performing solidly in national polling

2) Lots and lots of Democrats still know nothing about them

Let's start with No. 1. In the CNN poll, Harris takes 8%, good for third place behind Biden and Sanders. Buttigieg receives 5%, putting him in a tie for fifth with former Texas Rep. Beto O'Rourke. Now, those aren't amazing numbers -- especially when you consider that Biden is in the 30s in terms of support.

BUT, that brings me to No. 2. Asked whether they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the candidates, 40% said they had "never heard of" Mayor Pete, while 29% said they had never heard of Harris. Just 5% hadn't heard of Biden (Sidebar: Who are you people????) while 3% had never heard of Sanders.

Why does that matter, you ask? Because numbers like those suggest that both Buttigieg and Harris still have lots of room to grow, or in the parlance of the NBA Draft -- coming June 20! -- they have major upside. Or high ceilings. 

 

All of which simply means that they are doing pretty well in securing support among those who know them, but the real key is that lots and lots of people don't really know them yet. Biden and Sanders are known commodities to the electorate. People know them and have opinions about them -- opinions that are unlikely to change in any drastic way. Buttigieg and Harris still have the chance to introduce themselves -- in any way they want -- to tons of Democratic voters between now and next February.

And both candidates will have the money to do that. Harris raised more than $12 million in the first three months of 2019 and Buttigieg brought in $7 million. That cash haul will pay for direct mail pieces and TV ads that will ensure that every Iowa and New Hampshire voter will know who these candidates are (and what they believe) before the time comes to vote.