SC Homophobic Senator Lindsey Graham Having Problems with His… Numbers
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| Birds of a Feather |
South Carolina’s U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham’s re-election chances may have hit a slight snag. Graham’s approval ratings are upside down in every poll. In a recent media poll, Graham’s approval is hovering at around 39%, which by the way is the same as President Barack Obama’s! When your approval rating is tied with your biggest critic in the United States Senate, something’s up with that.
In head-to-head matchups against his three opponents Graham can’t hit 50%. In most of the polls, he isn’t close, averaging about 45%. Bottom line: people know Lindsey Graham and they’ve made their minds up about him.
Like most incumbents, Lindsey Graham has very little room to grow in numbers and popularity will likely not move much in the polling. Independent-conservative Thomas Ravenel, of Southern Charm fame, and Libertarian Victor Kocher are combining for near 15% in these polls. I have to assume nearly all of it is coming from Graham. Ravenel will likely spend millions of his own daddy’s money to help seal Lindsey’s fate. And so in the end, Ravenel and Kocher give very conservative voters a place to go other than Graham, whom they despise for his positions and votes on immigration reform and global warming and for his votes in support of Obama’s judicial nominees.
In recent history, Democrats in South Carolina normally end up somewhere in the mid 40’s on election night. In Obama’s two elections down in my home state, he finished with 45% and 44% here. In 2010, state Senator Vincent Sheheen received 47% in his bid for governor. The Democratic nominee for Lt. Governor got 45% and Matthew Richardson who was running for Attorney General ended up with 44%. In 2008, the guy who ran as a Democrat against Lindsey Graham and didn’t spend any money got 42% of the vote. And no, I have no clue who the hell he was.
What does it all mean? Simply put, South Carolina is trending folks and it ain’t going towards the color red. The anti gay, anti Human Rights and always pro war Graham’s doctrine might not be popular with everyone on his state like it once was. What does a southern boy grown in the 40-60’s going to do now in 2015? Is he too old to change or too old to see how the people he represents have been changing? (adamfoxie interjected)
The guy running against Graham is Brad Hutto, a 19 year veteran of the state senate. If he can get the vote out, including the all important black vote, he could end up in the mid 40’s and that might just make him the leading vote getter. And unlike our neighbor Georgia to the south, all you gotta do is win by one vote folks and it’s winner take all.
To be clear, there’s no doubt the perception of this race is very different. It’s got to be very frustrating for Hutto and his advisers. There hasn’t been an incumbent Republican in South Carolina running for re-election this unpopular since Governor David Beasley’s re-elect in 1998. Beasley lost that election by six points to Democrat Jim Hodges.
Despite being well known in the bubble of the state legislature, Hutto isn’t well known with most voters. For now, he’s showing up in the mid to lower 30’s in the polling. But most of the undecided voters are Democrats and Independents. Assuming Hutto can raise enough money to make a decent TV buy later in the fall, he’ll end up in the mid 40’s – right there with Lindsey Graham.
Now I’m not saying Hutto is going to win or Graham’s going to lose, but no one should be shocked if that happens. It’s simple math. For those of us who are taking a second look, the South Carolina US Senate race will be one of the more interesting around.
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