Reductions in Flights, Airlines Try to Get Ready
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| Affected airports, serving major cities including Atlanta, Chicago, Los Angeles and New York, will see a 4 percent reduction in air traffic Friday through Monday and a 10 percent reduction a week later. Credit...Elijah Nouvelage/Reuters |
New York Times
Airlines raced on Thursday to rework plans and prepare customers and workers for disruptions this weekend, when a reduction of flights is set to take effect at the nation’s busiest airports.
The cuts, which the Department of Transportation and the Federal Aviation Administration announced on Wednesday, will affect 40 airports and are intended to relieve pressure on air traffic controllers who have been working without pay since the government shutdown began last month. The affected airports, serving major cities including Atlanta, Chicago, Los Angeles and New York, will see a 4 percent reduction in air traffic starting on Friday and lasting through Monday, with reductions rising to 10 percent next Friday, according to an F.A.A. order released Thursday evening.
Airline planning and scheduling teams spent the day identifying which flights to cut this weekend while minimizing consequences for customers, pilots, flight attendants and the bottom line.
“This is a huge endeavor at such short notice,” said Oliver Lamb, managing director at Ailevon Pacific Aviation Consulting. Airlines are “battle-hardened” and used to managing disruptions, he said, but this is a “big undertaking particularly as we head into holidays.”
The nation’s four largest carriers, American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines and United Airlines, said the disruption would be limited this weekend. Most customers will not be affected by the cuts, they said, and travelers who want to change or cancel a flight for a refund can do so. American, Delta and United said long-distance international flights would continue as planned. Southwest does not offer such flights.
“While it is sudden, it is definitely not chaotic,” David Kinzelman, United’s chief customer officer, said in an interview. Knowing the location and scale of the cuts in advance helped to take the guesswork out of rescheduling, he said.
United said it expected to cancel fewer than 200 flights per day on Friday, Saturday and Sunday and compared the impact to that of a midsize winter storm. Delta said it expected to cancel about 170 flights on Friday and fewer on Saturday. American said it expected to cancel about 220 flights per day through the weekend. Collectively, those three airlines operate more than 15,000 daily flights.
Airlines are practiced at handling disruptions caused by bad weather, air traffic control staffing shortages, technological outages and other factors, but the scale of the government cuts eclipses that of most disruptions, experts said. Still, the airlines described the cuts as manageable.
Carriers focus first on making cuts that will have the smallest impact, experts said. That includes trimming service on routes that have multiple daily flights or cutting less popular flights to smaller airports.
“To some degree, it gives airlines the opportunity to cancel stuff that they think is going to be a loser anyway,” said Bob Mann, an industry consultant and a former airline executive.
Delta said that it would reduce flying on some routes, but that it intended to continue serve to all its destinations. United said flights between its airport hubs would remain uninterrupted. Those flights tend to be busiest and are often used to carry passengers with connecting flights or to move crews around its system, Mr. Kinzelman said.
As with any disruption, the team at United’s Network Operations Center near Chicago first looked for opportunities to consolidate flights at affected airports, with the help of automated tools like the Operational Recovery Cancellation Analyzer, which finds flights well suited to being canceled. But making such changes isn’t easy and still requires human intervention. The team must also consider minimizing the impact on passengers with connecting flights and on cities that have limited service.
Flight schedules are determined months in advance, and changes can also have cascading effects. A bad storm that affects airports in New York can have lingering effects for days across the country, for example, because it displaces not only travelers who may have connecting flights but also pilots, flight attendants and planes.
Airline planners also have to take into account federal rules governing the working hours of flight crews. Pilots and flight attendants can spend only so much time on the clock before mandated periods of rest between shifts. As a result, crew scheduling is a crucial part of the planning. United, for example, has expanded its crew scheduling team to 220 people, from 68 just two years ago.
Experts said the timing of the flight cuts wasn’t too bad for airlines — for now. Flying is generally less congested in the weeks before Thanksgiving, which gives the industry some room to maneuver.
“Because of the early November timing, our flights have more seats available than before the summer, meaning we should be able to find seats for many customers even if their flight is canceled,” United’s chief executive, Scott Kirby, said in a message to staff members this week.
But if the federal limits linger, travel around Thanksgiving, one of the busiest periods of the year, could be affected. With most travelers booking well in advance and planes more full during the winter holiday period, airlines have “limited slack” in their schedules to minimize disruptions, said Clark Johns, a director at Alton Aviation, a consulting firm. Planes typically fly with 80 to 90 percent of seats occupied, but that share can rise into the 90s around the holidays
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