1Yr After Gay Marriage Decision } Have Minds Change?
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| Such a long fought victory that at the end came what it seemed lightning speed |
A year has passed since the Supreme Court legalized gay marriage with its close 5-4 ruling on Obergefell v. Hodges. Have attitudes toward gay marriage changed since then? Where does opinion on the issue currently stand?
Depending on the survey, support appears steady or inching up. In the latest Gallup survey from May, 61% answered that marriages between same-sex couples should be recognized by the law as valid with the same rights as traditional marriages, up 1 point since the spring of 2015. Opposition remains unchanged at 37%. In a new survey from the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI), 62% favored allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry legally while 36% were opposed. The responses from July 2015 were 52% and 40%, respectively. In the Pew Research Center’s March 2016 survey, 56% favored allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally; the same percentage gave that response in May 2015. Opposition declined two points from 39% to 37%.
Although polling on this issue has emphasized growing acceptance of gay marriage, recent polls also reveal a sizable group that remains opposed. In surveys since the Court’s ruling, between 34% and 40% express this opinion. As noted above, in their most recent surveys Gallup registered opposition at 37%, PRRI at 36%, and Pew at 37%. In other questions asked after the Court’s ruling, a comparable percentage expressed opposition to other aspects of the issue. In July 2015, for example, ABC News/Washington Post pollsters asked people whether they supported or opposed the Court’s decision. Thirty-five percent opposed it strongly, and another 10% said they opposed it somewhat. In May this year, 37% told Gallup pollsters gay and lesbian relations were not morally acceptable. Sixty percent said they were.
Young people tend to lead change, and they have long been—and still are—gay marriage’s most supportive age group. In Gallup’s May 2016 poll, 83% of 18- to 29-year-olds said same-sex marriages should be valid. But the opinions of older generations have also shown considerable movement. In the same poll, for the first time in Gallup’s polling on gay marriage, a majority (53%) of seniors ages 65 and older said same-sex marriages should be valid, up 7 points from last year. Since Gallup first asked about the issue in 1996, the youngest age cohort has moved the most, 42 points, in support for legalization of same-sex marriage. But the oldest cohort has moved almost as much, 39 points. Young people led the way as Americans changed their minds about gay marriage, but older generations are catching up.
How, when, and why Americans change their minds about issues such as gay marriage is a subject of much discussion, and polls are uniquely able to provide clues. Among the many explanations for the shift in more positive attitudes toward gay marriage, one seems especially compelling. As surveys show, more people know someone—a family member, a coworker, or a friend—who is gay, and familiarity tends to lead to acceptance. In October 2015, for example, when NBC News/Wall Street Journal asked people if they personally know or work with someone who is gay or lesbian, nearly three out of four (72%) said they did. In addition, this month Gallup found that almost half (49%) of cohabiting same-sex couples are now married, up 11 points since before the Obergefell decision. Nowadays, not only are more people likely to know someone who is gay, but if they do, they are also increasingly likely to know someone who is in a same-sex marriage. Almost all of the national change in views about same-sex marriage appears to have taken place before the Supreme Court’s decision. In the year since the ruling, opinion seems stable, with a few polls showing a small uptick in support, as a core group of around 37% remains opposed. This group will probably get smaller over time as younger people with more accepting attitudes about gay marriage replace older people who, in comparison, are still more opposed, though becoming less so. Overall, changes in opinion on same-sex marriage appear to have paused, but they probably have not plateaued.
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