Shocker! Tea Party/GOP leader Rep. Eric Cantor Looses to Tea Party Unknown
Shortly after eight on Tuesday night, Twitter went a little nuts, and so, presumably, did Eric Cantor, the second-ranking Republican in the House of Representatives. The Associated Press, CNN, and other news organizations had just called the Republican primary race in Virginia’s Seventh District for David Brat, a hitherto little-known economics professor who is associated with the Tea Party wing of the G.O.P. Cantor had become the first House Majority Leader to lose a primary renomination.
All over Washington, commentators were called out of dinner; Fox News broke into the O’Reilly Factor; and political reporters struggled to come up with a correct historical analogy. Since virtually no one—or, at least, no one in the world of political forecasting and punditry—had predicted Brat’s victory, it would be presumptuous, at this stage, to say anything definitive about its causes or its consequences. But here are a few things that can’t easily be contested.
In the 2012 G.O.P. primary, Cantor—who has aggressively courted Tea Party voters, tacitly promoting himself as a conservative alternative to Speaker John Boehner—defeated his opponent, Floyd Bane, by 79.4 per cent to 20.6 per cent. Evidently, Brat, who teaches at Randolph-Macon College, in Ashland, Virginia, wasn’t the sort to be put off. According to the Wall Street Journal, his works include “God and Advanced Mammon: Can Theological Types Handle Usury and Capitalism?” and “An Analysis of the Moral Foundations in Ayn Rand.” He entered the race at the start of this year, and was determined to make an issue of Cantor’s ties to the Party’s Washington-based establishment. Writing for the Daily Caller, a conservative news site, in February, Bratsaid:
Congressman Cantor’s profile has been erratic even by Washington standards — flitting from eager establishmentarian coat-holder to self-glorified “Young Gun” and back again. His loyalties, both upward and downward, have shifted in his eager embrace of the Ruling Class. Washington’s only genuine article of faith: maintaining control regardless of how that control affects the life of the folks back home.
Brat fastened onto what was perceived by elements of the G.O.P.’s grass roots to be Cantor’s willingness to compromise on immigration reform and offer some form of amnesty to immigrants who had entered the country illegally. (In Washington, the House Majority Leader was sometimes portrayed as a barrier to such a reform.) This issue galvanized Brat’s campaign, and brought him to the attention of conservative media figures such as Laura Ingraham and Mark Levin, who both expressed support for him. Just this past weekend, Ingraham appeared alongside Brat at a political rally in Virginia, and jokingly suggested that President Obama should have traded Cantor, not five Taliban leaders, for Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl. Brat, meanwhile, kept hacking away on the immigration issue, saying, “A vote for Eric Cantor is a vote for open borders. A vote for Eric Cantor is a vote for amnesty.”
Until the very end, though, Cantor appeared likely to hold on. According to Nate Silver, Cantor’s internal polling showed him ahead by more than twenty points. A poll carried out on June 2nd by the Daily Caller did indicate that the race was narrowing somewhat, but even that poll showed Brat trailing Cantor by twelve points, forty per cent to fifty-two per cent.
When the polling data started to arrive on Tuesday evening, however, it quickly became clear that the G.O.P. leader was in big, big trouble.
David Wasserman, who covers the House of Representatives for the Cook Political Report, provided a running commentary on Twitter. Shortly after 7 P.M., he posted, “So far, Cantor (R) getting crushed in Hanover (the most conservative county), losing Chesterfield (not his natural base), losing rural #VA07.” A bit later, he added, “BUT: Cantor’s problem is 1/3 of Henrico Co. is in and Cantor is LOSING his home base. Just absolutely shocking numbers so far. #VA07.” And finally: “I’ve seen enough, it’s over. Sitting Majority Leader of the House, Rep. Eric Cantor (R), has lost his primary to Prof. Dave Brat (R) #VA07.” Wasserman was right. When all the votes had been counted, Brat had received 55.5 per cent, and Cantor had got just 44.5 per cent.
The inquests have already begun. Cantor massively outspent his opponent and still lost. Low turnout undoubtedly played a role. In a district that contains more than three quarters of a million people, about sixty-five thousand voted in the primary. Conceivably, some of Cantor’s voters stayed at home, thinking he was safe. Brat’s supporters, teed up by sites like the Daily Caller and Breitbart.com, turned out in force.
In the instant search for beneficiaries and casualties, the establishment wing of the G.O.P. was an obvious loser. Jim Messina, Obama’s former campaign manager, tweeted gleefully, “Eric Cantor losing. So much for the R’s “tea party doesn’t control us” narrative.” He added, “That vomiting sound you hear is wise R’s who just realized what the ‘16 nominee will have to say & do to get thru primary.”
But this might be taking the argument too far. Clearly, the Tea Party hasn’t gone away, but one swallow doesn’t make a summer. In most big primary contests around the country, the G.O.P. establishment candidates have won, and those from Tea Party have been routed.
On the Democratic side, the big beneficiary is Brat’s opponent in November, Jack Trammell, who until now was widely regarded to have no chance. In fact, another victory for Cantor was considered such a foregone conclusion that no Democrats entered the primary this year. To insure that there would be a Democrat on the ballot, a party committee just this Monday selected Trammell, who is also a professor at Randolph-Macon College. (He’s a sociologist who has written a book on the Richmond slave trade.)
Still, the shocking result gives the Democratic Party a boost. Yesterday, Hillary Clinton embarked on her national book tour, which has already involved a couple of mini-gaffes—or, at least, what had been perceived inside the media bubble as mini-gaffes. Now, suddenly, Clinton has been knocked off the front pages. The focus is squarely back on the Republicans, and their internal tribulations.
Photograph by Sarah L. Voisin/The Washington Post via Getty.
Dave Brat was vastly outspent in the Virginia primary but came out on top.
What happens now? Stay tuned to adamfoxie
Comments