POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES ON GAY MARRIAGE DELAY
Political Consequences Feared From Jockeying Over Gay Marriage Delays
A rush to move from some, an insistence to wait from others on hot-button issue
Selena Ross
Tue, 29 Sep 2009 12:48:00
Opinion is split in Albany over which is a more preposterous prediction: that there will be a gay marriage vote this fall, or that there will not be.
But there is consensus about who has the most to lose by delaying a vote, with the Senate Democratic leadership likely to then be held accountable for disarray and crucial national gay political donors losing interest in the Senate Democrats’ future.
“To delay is to deny,” said State Sen. Bill Perkins, a gay marriage supporter. “And to deny has a political consequence.”
As New York continues to sputter, those with ties to major gay donors say they are sending their money and attention elsewhere, having grown tired of the core group of senators who have been unable to move a bill forward.
“I think the leadership are the ones most likely to be held accountable in this,” said Scott Long of Human Rights Watch. “A lot of specifically LGBT money is going to California right now. … There’s already a lot of disappointment this hasn’t happened, and that may translate into the ballot.”
As Gov. David Paterson goes into political limbo, the bill which was to be his political Hail Mary pass has clearly dropped on his list of priorities, after he spent the end of the summer insisting that he had planned to get it on the agenda for the September special session.
Nonetheless, bill co-sponsors Liz Krueger, Jeff Klein and Tom Duane are pushing to get the bill to the floor, [leading some to expect a vote within weeks.]
But that, according to several key Albany insiders, is wishful thinking.
“There are so many moving parts right now,” said one Democratic aide. “We have a new leader, we have one of our members facing trial and we don’t know what is going on.”
Assemblyman Danny O’Donnell, who sponsored the bill through Assembly, said that local LGBT advocates are preparing to redouble their efforts and target both wavering senators and committed supporters who have failed to overcome the gridlock.
“Commitments had been made by both Democratic and Republican leadership that they will have a vote,” he said. “There will be an intense effort made on behalf of the community to communicate with their elected officials.”
The bill’s standstill is not helped by the splits within the Democratic Senate leadership. Conference Leader John Sampson has been a supporter in the past, while Senate President Malcolm Smith has remained more cautious. According to some political insiders, there has been some back-and-forth about the issue between the two, but in the post-coup Senate, many senators and their staffers seem uncertain which leader will decide how the bill should proceed.
State Sen. Ruben Diaz, an opponent of same-sex marriage, accused some in Albany of trying to split the hard-earned unity of the Democratic conference by focusing on divisive issues.
“They’re pushing, pushing at that bill knowing that that bill will create problems,” he said. “There is unity, tranquility and peace in the valley. The valley is the Democratic Senate conference.”
Adding to the problems is a communication breakdown among rank-and-file Senate Democrats that makes difficult votes hard to whip.
“Right now people are just talking to each other by press release,” said one insider.
Some strategists have suggested that moving the legislation forward, even to a failing vote, would help stop the Senate Democrats’ political downslide by kick-starting an old debate and reviving interest from the gay community. And, as President Obama’s intervention into the governor’s race reveals, the thinking about 2010 is already well underway.
“The question is, don’t the Democrats need to start pulling together 32 votes to get some of these questions answered? The answer is yes,” said Kyle Kotary, a political consultant. “My advice to the Senate Democrats would be to move as quickly as possible.”
The bill’s co-sponsors also reject suggestions that waiting to call a vote until 32 votes are guaranteed might be wiser. Perkins insisted that pushing a vote would flush out those Senators who are planning to vote against expectations, including moderate Republicans, who would be forced to either give in to their leadership or heed the call of their constituents.
Many of the arguments for postponing further hinge on the political wisdom of hoping that Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is elected governor next year with coattails that bring in a more heavily Democratic Senate, allowing for a more decisive legalization vote rather than having the base divided in advance of the elections.
Long, of Human Rights Watch, said he believed that the cloud currently hanging over the governor’s mansion meant movement was not imminent.
“I think there are a lot of people who are afraid to move on sensitive issues until they know the political landscape,” he said.
A rush to move from some, an insistence to wait from others on hot-button issue
Selena Ross
Tue, 29 Sep 2009 12:48:00
Opinion is split in Albany over which is a more preposterous prediction: that there will be a gay marriage vote this fall, or that there will not be.
But there is consensus about who has the most to lose by delaying a vote, with the Senate Democratic leadership likely to then be held accountable for disarray and crucial national gay political donors losing interest in the Senate Democrats’ future.
“To delay is to deny,” said State Sen. Bill Perkins, a gay marriage supporter. “And to deny has a political consequence.”
As New York continues to sputter, those with ties to major gay donors say they are sending their money and attention elsewhere, having grown tired of the core group of senators who have been unable to move a bill forward.
“I think the leadership are the ones most likely to be held accountable in this,” said Scott Long of Human Rights Watch. “A lot of specifically LGBT money is going to California right now. … There’s already a lot of disappointment this hasn’t happened, and that may translate into the ballot.”
As Gov. David Paterson goes into political limbo, the bill which was to be his political Hail Mary pass has clearly dropped on his list of priorities, after he spent the end of the summer insisting that he had planned to get it on the agenda for the September special session.
Nonetheless, bill co-sponsors Liz Krueger, Jeff Klein and Tom Duane are pushing to get the bill to the floor, [leading some to expect a vote within weeks.]
But that, according to several key Albany insiders, is wishful thinking.
“There are so many moving parts right now,” said one Democratic aide. “We have a new leader, we have one of our members facing trial and we don’t know what is going on.”
Assemblyman Danny O’Donnell, who sponsored the bill through Assembly, said that local LGBT advocates are preparing to redouble their efforts and target both wavering senators and committed supporters who have failed to overcome the gridlock.
“Commitments had been made by both Democratic and Republican leadership that they will have a vote,” he said. “There will be an intense effort made on behalf of the community to communicate with their elected officials.”
The bill’s standstill is not helped by the splits within the Democratic Senate leadership. Conference Leader John Sampson has been a supporter in the past, while Senate President Malcolm Smith has remained more cautious. According to some political insiders, there has been some back-and-forth about the issue between the two, but in the post-coup Senate, many senators and their staffers seem uncertain which leader will decide how the bill should proceed.
State Sen. Ruben Diaz, an opponent of same-sex marriage, accused some in Albany of trying to split the hard-earned unity of the Democratic conference by focusing on divisive issues.
“They’re pushing, pushing at that bill knowing that that bill will create problems,” he said. “There is unity, tranquility and peace in the valley. The valley is the Democratic Senate conference.”
Adding to the problems is a communication breakdown among rank-and-file Senate Democrats that makes difficult votes hard to whip.
“Right now people are just talking to each other by press release,” said one insider.
Some strategists have suggested that moving the legislation forward, even to a failing vote, would help stop the Senate Democrats’ political downslide by kick-starting an old debate and reviving interest from the gay community. And, as President Obama’s intervention into the governor’s race reveals, the thinking about 2010 is already well underway.
“The question is, don’t the Democrats need to start pulling together 32 votes to get some of these questions answered? The answer is yes,” said Kyle Kotary, a political consultant. “My advice to the Senate Democrats would be to move as quickly as possible.”
The bill’s co-sponsors also reject suggestions that waiting to call a vote until 32 votes are guaranteed might be wiser. Perkins insisted that pushing a vote would flush out those Senators who are planning to vote against expectations, including moderate Republicans, who would be forced to either give in to their leadership or heed the call of their constituents.
Many of the arguments for postponing further hinge on the political wisdom of hoping that Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is elected governor next year with coattails that bring in a more heavily Democratic Senate, allowing for a more decisive legalization vote rather than having the base divided in advance of the elections.
Long, of Human Rights Watch, said he believed that the cloud currently hanging over the governor’s mansion meant movement was not imminent.
“I think there are a lot of people who are afraid to move on sensitive issues until they know the political landscape,” he said.
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