America Now Has a New President

America now has a new President

By OZY

america’s new … old alliances 1. Resetting the Table Imagine a collective sigh of relief blowing over Brussels, home to the European Union and NATO. Trump’s approach to the West’s bedrock alliances was transactional and based on the belief that America was performing an act of charity by propping up the defenses of Europe and others. For Europe and other NATO partners, a Biden administration represents hopes of a return to a relationship that appreciates the true reason the U.S. built these alliances in the first place: keeping Russia in check, which ranks highly among Washington’s interests. Yet rewinding the clock won’t be easy, writes former CIA Director John McLaughlin. READ MORE ON OZY 2. Climate of Trust Biden must rebuild it — especially on global deals that America cajoled others into accepting, only to abandon it under Trump. It took a combination of checkbook diplomacy (promises to support transitions to clean energy in poorer nations) and deft negotiations from the Obama administration to convince most of the world to sign onto the landmark Paris Climate Agreement in 2015. Trump signaled the U.S. was exiting the pact in 2017. Ironically, America’s withdrawal was formalized a day after the Nov. 3 vote. Biden has promised to return America to its Paris commitments immediately and to rejoin U.N. bodies like the World Health Organization. But can the world trust that a future American leader would respect predecessors’ promises? Climate change and major diseases can’t be fixed in four years. Can America’s reputation? It could start by restoring global faith in its democracy. READ MORE ON OZY 3. Asian Anxiety For four years, we’ve frequently seen U.S. allies and partners at loggerheads with Trump and his administration. But there’s one area where America’s Asian friends in particular want his approach to continue: China. Japan has been trying for years to get its top companies to relocate factories from China amid growing tensions. Trump’s trade war with Beijing and the pandemic have sparked fears of a disruption to their supply chains that’s finally making Japanese firms shift homeward, aided by a Japanese program funding their transition. Trump has ignored Chinese threats and bolstered Taiwan's defenses. And Trump has breathed life into a powerful strategic counter to Beijing: the so-called Quad, a coalition of the U.S., India, Japan and Australia. Biden’s big challenge will be to convince Asian partners he will do what President Obama promised but didn’t follow up on — a true pivot to Asia, with the promise to lead the security challenge to Beijing in the region. READ MORE ON OZY 4. War or Peace? Trump has come closer to actually ending America’s longest war, the one in Afghanistan, than his predecessors and earlier this year inked a controversial but landmark peace deal with the Taliban. But while the country’s popular sentiment remains in favor of ending the war and bringing American soldiers back home, U.S. allies and partners have long argued that as things stand, this would effectively hand Afghanistan over to the Taliban and undo American and global counter-terrorism efforts over the past 19 years. Will Biden walk back from the deal with the Taliban, winning plaudits globally but potential brickbats domestically? Or is this one Trump legacy he’ll build on? 5. Global Cop Afghanistan is just the tip of the iceberg. Under Trump, America has largely steered clear of conflicts in other hot spots — from Mali to the Mediterranean and, most recently, in the ongoing war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. It’s the latter that could present the first test of Biden’s approach to global interventionism. A hot mic moment in February 2019 brought Armenia’s President Armen Sarkissian precious moments on American television. At the Munich Security Conference, Sarkissian cornered Biden and asked him if he would run for president while cameras picked up their hushed conversation. Now Sarkissian and Armenia are hoping that a Democrat — and especially Biden — in the White House might get them more support from Washington amid their ongoing war with Turkey-backed Azerbaijan. Democrats have been friendlier toward Armenia than Republicans, but it’ll be a tightrope for Biden. He’s tried his hardest to distance himself from a Republican-conjured scandal involving Ukraine. He wouldn’t want to attract charges of favoritism in a war involving two other ex-Soviet republics.