Pres.Obama Believes a Bomb Destroyed the Russian Passenger Jet
— President Obama said last night (Thursday eve.) that there was “a possibility” that a terrorist bomb was responsible for the destruction of a Russian passenger plane that broke apart last Saturday over the Sinai Peninsula in Egypt.
Mr. Obama said in a radio interview that there may have been a bomb on the plane, but he did not go as far as his counterparts in Britain, who have suggested that the destruction of the plane, and the death of all on board, was most likely the result of a terrorist explosion.
“I don’t think we know yet,” Mr. Obama told the Seattle radio station KIRO during an interview broadcast on Thursday afternoon. “Whenever you’ve got a plane crash, first of all you’ve got the tragedy, you’ve got making sure there’s an investigation on site. I think there is a possibility that there was a bomb on board. And we are taking that very seriously.”
Russian emergency services personnel at the site of the Metrojet crash in the Sinai Peninsula, Egypt.Britain, Concerned About Russian Crash, Halts Sinai FlightsNOV. 4, 2015
Russian crews collected the personal belongings of passengers on the Metrojet flight on Tuesday on the Sinai Peninsula in EgyptFlash Was Detected as Russian Jet Broke Apart, U.S. Military Officials SayNOV. 3, 2015
A tourist watched the sun set over the Red Sea in the resort town of Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt, in June.Sinai Plane Crash Threatens a Bright Spot for Egyptian TourismNOV. 2, 2015
“We are going to spend a lot of time making sure our own investigators and our own intelligence community figures out exactly what’s going on before we make any definitive pronouncements,” Mr. Obama added. “But it is certainly possible that there was a bomb on board.”
At the White House earlier in the day, administration officials said that the United States had not yet made a determination about the cause of the crash near the Egyptian resort city of Sharm el Sheikh, but added that the government had not excluded the possibility of a bomb.
“We can’t rule anything out, including the possibility of terrorism,” Josh Earnest, the White House press secretary, told reporters in Washington.
In London on Thursday, Prime Minister David Cameron said that “more likely than not a terrorist bomb” had brought down the plane as he announced plans to bring British citizens back from Sharm el Sheikh.
Mr. Obama’s comments were the first direct indication by the president that the downing of the Russian airliner might have been something other than a technical malfunction. American officials have repeatedly cautioned that the cause of the crash was still under investigation.
Officials have noted that no American airlines fly to or from the airport in Egypt where the Russian plane began its flight. And they said before the crash, the Federal Aviation Administration had already issued guidance to airlines to fly higher above the region.
Mr. Obama’s comments came during a series of short interviews with five radio stations across the country in which the president urged people to sign up for health insurance at HealthCare.gov during the current open enrollment period. During one of the interviews, Mr. Obama was asked about the Russian plane.
In recent days, administration officials have noted the differences between the crash of the Russian plane and other airline disasters. Unlike the case last year of the missing Malaysian jetliner, the United States does not have F.B.I. agents working directly on the crash.
“Right now there are not,” Mr. Earnest said Wednesday afternoon. “Right now this is an Egyptian investigation. The Russians are involved in it.”
Officials have said American investigators were “in touch” with their counterparts in other countries who are looking into the crash. But without an American known to be on the flight — a presence that often gives officials a reason to participate in the investigation of a crash — there has been no reason for direct United States involvement, they said.
The Russians and the Egyptians have also not asked for help from the United States in the investigation, officials said.
Mr. Cameron made his remarks about the crash in an appearance at No. 10 Downing Street with President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi of Egypt.
New York Times
Could ISIS have bombed Flight 92668?
When an Islamic State affiliate in Egypt claimed responsibility for the downing of a Russian airliner on Saturday, analysts were initially sceptical about the group's ability to bring down a passenger jet.
Speculation focused on an assumption that the group, which calls itself Sinai Province, was claiming to have fired a missile at the plane - almost certainly beyond its technical means.
But five days on from the crash, which killed all 224 people on board shortly after take-off from the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh, the UK has grounded flights at the resort and David Cameron has said it is “more likely than not" that a bomb brought down the plane.
UK military officials are now on their way to Egypt and security at Sharm el-Sheikh airport is under intense scrutiny. Julian Bray, an aviation security analyst, says it is "highly probable" that even a relatively unsophisticated terror group could get a bomb on a jet leaving the resort.
"It is unlikely a passenger would be able to stow it on board the aircraft, but it is quite likely it could have been taken into somewhere like the cargo shed and then into a container in the plane," he says.
“All passenger aircraft nowadays carry cargo as well, which often comes as a complete sealed unit, and the concern is that at airports like Sharm security is lax around cargo.
"A lot of the airports in the Far East and Middle East are running on a shoestring and they have to turn round aircraft and cargo as fast as possible.
"That leads to skimping on security procedures."
Egypt has criticized suggestions that a bomb was involved in the crash. Civil Aviation Minister Hossam Kamal said the country's airports all comply with international security standards.
Investigators are yet to reveal any information from the aircraft’s black box recorders and there is no concrete evidence of a bomb attack.
US media reported on Tuesday that a military satellite detected a "heat flash" over Sinai at the time of the crash, suggesting an explosion, but officials said they have not ruled out a technical malfunction.
On Wednesday, Sinai Province, which emerged in 2011, reiterated its claim of responsibility in an audio recording circulated on social media, but refused to give any details about the method used.
"We brought it down by God's help, but we are under no obligation to reveal the mechanism we used," the statement said. "So search the wreckage of the plane, and find your black box and analyse it."
Jump media playerMedia player helpOut of media player. Press enter to return or tab to continue.
Media captionDid bomb cause Sinai plane crash?
The data retrieved from the black boxes may reveal whether a bomb was involved. If Sinai Province’s claim is corroborated, it will be the first IS attack against a passenger aircraft - a grisly milestone for the terror organization.
Spectacular attacks against civilian targets - especially planes - have so far been the preserve of IS's much older rival, al-Qaeda, which was behind 9/11.
AQAP, al-Qaeda's branch in Yemen, claimed responsibility for two bombs discovered unexploded on cargo planes in 2010 - one in London and one in Dubai. The 300-400g devices - large enough to bring down a plane - were hidden in printer cartridges aboard cargo flights from Yemen.
Both packages were destined for Chicago and timed using mobile phones to detonate over the US mainland.
And in 2010, the CIA said it had foiled a plot by AQAP to smuggle a technically advanced bomb on board an airliner bound for the United States.
By contrast, IS has so far focused on taking land and hostages, and inspiring lone wolf attacks in other parts of the world rather than planning its own sophisticated operations.
Debris from the plane was spread over a wide area, indicating it broke up in mid-air
Many analysts have been waiting for a high-profile terror attack by IS, according to Dr HA Hellyer, a Middle East expert with the Royal United Services Institute. But the scale of the Metrojet attack would nonetheless be a surprise, he says.
“I don't think anybody expected an attack on a plane, maybe on a hotel or a kidnapping ... but nobody expected something this large.
"I don't think it will surprise anyone such a radical and extremist group has targeted civilians, but certainly the nature of this attack is very dramatic," he says.
If the attack is confirmed it would be a significant propaganda coup for IS, says Dr Hellyer. “It would mean that they've taken out a huge number of civilians at once, and struck a blow against two of their enemies at once, Russia and Egypt."
And it will remain a success of sorts for IS even if investigators rule that the plane was brought down by a technical fault, he says.
"If it turns out that they didn't do it, that is still a victory in a sense. We are having this conversation now. They have managed to dominate the discussion, and that in itself is a communications victory."
Could ISIS have bombed Flight 92668?
When an Islamic State affiliate in Egypt claimed responsibility for the downing of a Russian airliner on Saturday, analysts were initially sceptical about the group's ability to bring down a passenger jet.
Speculation focused on an assumption that the group, which calls itself Sinai Province, was claiming to have fired a missile at the plane - almost certainly beyond its technical means.
But five days on from the crash, which killed all 224 people on board shortly after take-off from the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh, the UK has grounded flights at the resort and David Cameron has said it is “more likely than not" that a bomb brought down the plane.
UK military officials are now on their way to Egypt and security at Sharm el-Sheikh airport is under intense scrutiny. Julian Bray, an aviation security analyst, says it is "highly probable" that even a relatively unsophisticated terror group could get a bomb on a jet leaving the resort.
"It is unlikely a passenger would be able to stow it on board the aircraft, but it is quite likely it could have been taken into somewhere like the cargo shed and then into a container in the plane," he says.
“All passenger aircraft nowadays carry cargo as well, which often comes as a complete sealed unit, and the concern is that at airports like Sharm security is lax around cargo.
"A lot of the airports in the Far East and Middle East are running on a shoestring and they have to turn round aircraft and cargo as fast as possible.
"That leads to skimping on security procedures."
Egypt has criticized suggestions that a bomb was involved in the crash. Civil Aviation Minister Hossam Kamal said the country's airports all comply with international security standards.
Investigators are yet to reveal any information from the aircraft’s black box recorders and there is no concrete evidence of a bomb attack.
US media reported on Tuesday that a military satellite detected a "heat flash" over Sinai at the time of the crash, suggesting an explosion, but officials said they have not ruled out a technical malfunction.
On Wednesday, Sinai Province, which emerged in 2011, reiterated its claim of responsibility in an audio recording circulated on social media, but refused to give any details about the method used.
"We brought it down by God's help, but we are under no obligation to reveal the mechanism we used," the statement said. "So search the wreckage of the plane, and find your black box and analyse it."
Jump media playerMedia player helpOut of media player. Press enter to return or tab to continue.
Media captionDid bomb cause Sinai plane crash?
The data retrieved from the black boxes may reveal whether a bomb was involved. If Sinai Province’s claim is corroborated, it will be the first IS attack against a passenger aircraft - a grisly milestone for the terror organization.
Spectacular attacks against civilian targets - especially planes - have so far been the preserve of IS's much older rival, al-Qaeda, which was behind 9/11.
AQAP, al-Qaeda's branch in Yemen, claimed responsibility for two bombs discovered unexploded on cargo planes in 2010 - one in London and one in Dubai. The 300-400g devices - large enough to bring down a plane - were hidden in printer cartridges aboard cargo flights from Yemen.
Both packages were destined for Chicago and timed using mobile phones to detonate over the US mainland.
And in 2010, the CIA said it had foiled a plot by AQAP to smuggle a technically advanced bomb on board an airliner bound for the United States.
By contrast, IS has so far focused on taking land and hostages, and inspiring lone wolf attacks in other parts of the world rather than planning its own sophisticated operations.
Debris from the plane was spread over a wide area, indicating it broke up in mid-air
Many analysts have been waiting for a high-profile terror attack by IS, according to Dr HA Hellyer, a Middle East expert with the Royal United Services Institute. But the scale of the Metrojet attack would nonetheless be a surprise, he says.
“I don't think anybody expected an attack on a plane, maybe on a hotel or a kidnapping ... but nobody expected something this large.
"I don't think it will surprise anyone such a radical and extremist group has targeted civilians, but certainly the nature of this attack is very dramatic," he says.
If the attack is confirmed it would be a significant propaganda coup for IS, says Dr Hellyer. “It would mean that they've taken out a huge number of civilians at once, and struck a blow against two of their enemies at once, Russia and Egypt."
And it will remain a success of sorts for IS even if investigators rule that the plane was brought down by a technical fault, he says.
"If it turns out that they didn't do it, that is still a victory in a sense. We are having this conversation now. They have managed to dominate the discussion, and that in itself is a communications victory."
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