6 Midterm Take Aways

  

Here are 6 midterm takeaways from NPR's senior political correspondent Domenico Montanaro:

All the signs were pointing in Democrats’ direction heading into election night. But nothing indicated quite this level of a romp.

1. President Trump wanted this election to be about him. It was and that hurt Republicans: Trump was historically unpopular. People were frustrated with the economy and the war, and it hurt the GOP. It turns out when you wage the kind of war that you said you wouldn’t get into — that drags on, raises gas prices and piles on people who were already feeling the pinch, don’t be surprised when you pay the price.

2. Republicans tried to insulate themselves with redistricting, but it didn’t work: Trump strongly encouraged conservative-led states to redistrict — but it backfired. There was always the possibility that weakening safe districts could make them more competitive and that happened. It’s a true cautionary tale of the “dummymander.”

3. Latinos are a true swing group in America now: Trump only lost Latinos by 5 points in 2024. In this election, they sided with Democrats by 27 points. The economy and deportation tactics were big reasons why. In a real indictment of the Trump deportation policies, the voter poll found 59% overall said they disapproved of ICE.

4. Is Texas — and other red states — in play for Democrats or was this election a giant asterisk? Democrats won in a lot of red states. The party has needed to show it can win in red and rural areas. They did that this time. But will that last, or is it a Trump-sized asterisk? 

5. The results of this year’s elections don’t mean the country is enamored with the Democratic Party: The party is still unpopular and fissures within their coalition will be laid bare over the next several months in the 2028 presidential primaries. They’ll have to be careful politically with how they approach leadership with the opportunity they’ve been handed.

6. The polls got the direction right. If anything, they underestimated Democratic support: For a decade, polls have underestimated Republican support. In these elections, that was not the case. It’s important to understand that it’s hard to poll when the country has been going through as significant a political realignment as it has been in the Trump era.

 

DOMENICO MONTANARO

SENIOR POLITICAL EDITOR/CORRESPONDENT, WASHINGTON DESK

NPR