Trump's Approval Ratings Are Darkening GOP Prospects
 |
New York Times
Most voters think President Trump made the wrong decision to go to war with Iran, a New York Times/Siena poll found, leaving the Republican Party on rocky political footing heading into the midterm elections as his approval rating sinks and economic concerns rise.
Majorities of voters said that the war was not worth the costs and held deeply pessimistic views about the economy.
Mr. Trump’s approval rating — a key historical predictor of how a president’s party will fare in an election — has sunk to a second-term low in Times/Siena polls of 37 percent amid the deeply unpopular Middle East conflict.
Nearly two-thirds of voters said that going to war had been the wrong decision, including almost three-quarters of politically crucial independents. Less than a quarter of all voters thought the conflict had been worth the costs.
Republicans broadly approved of Mr. Trump’s job performance and the war. But most other voters showed serious skepticism of his leadership on other top issues, including the economy and the cost of living. Sixty-four percent of all voters disapproved of his handling of the economy, long a strength for him, and majorities expressed negative views of how he was managing the cost of living, immigration and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
THE NEW YORK TIMES/SIENA POLL
MAY 11-15
Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling …
Net
approval
APPROVE
37%
DISAPPROVE
59%
−22 pts.
His job as president
41
56
−15 pts.
Immigration
33
64
−31 pts.
The economy
31
62
−31 pts.
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict
31
65
−34 pts.
The war in Iran
28
69
−42 pts.
The cost of living
Trump’s Approval Sinks Amid Unpopular War, Darkening G.O.P. Prospects - The New York Times
Based on a New York Times/Siena poll of 1,507 registered voters nationwide conducted May 11 to 15. The gray segment is for voters who did not respond or said they didn’t know.Ashley Cai and Christine Zhang/The New York Times
Independent voters in particular have become unhappier with Mr. Trump. Sixty-nine percent disapproved of his job performance, up from 62 percent in a January Times/Siena poll. Forty-seven percent of independents said his policies had hurt them, up from 41 percent in fall 2025.
Overall, 44 percent of voters said Mr. Trump’s policies had hurt them personally, up from 36 percent last fall.
“He’s not doing what he said he was going to do,” said Brent Klein Jr., a Republican who voted for Mr. Trump in 2020 and 2024. “That’s my biggest frustration with him.”
What questions were asked? Who answers polls?The New York Times/Siena Poll has earned a reputation for accuracy and transparency. Our pollsters and editors are committed to explaining our methods and answering common questions. Read our Q. and A. and explore the full results of the polls:
You Ask, We Answer: How The Times/Siena Poll Is Conducted
Cross-Tabs: May 2026 Times/Siena National Poll of Registered Voters
Mr. Klein, 43, the owner of a cleaning company who lives in Branson, Mo., described himself as “very pissed off” with the president’s decision to attack Iran without seeking congressional approval.
“I just want my family to live a good, healthy life,” he added, and to not have to “constantly pay more and more and more for food products and stuff.”
Republican leaders still have some electoral advantages. The party has gained a structural edge on the House map through its push to redraw congressional maps in red states, netting the G.O.P. an edge of roughly six to 10 newly favorable districts.
And while the political environment has worsened for the president and his party, Democrats have yet to convince voters that they offer a compelling alternative. The poll indicated that Democrats have not improved their political brand, even after more than a year of trying to demonstrate that they understand the concerns of voters and can stand up to Mr. Trump.
Just 26 percent of voters said they were satisfied with the Democratic Party.
The discontent includes a significant number of Democrats who expressed reservations about their own party. Forty-four percent of Democrats described themselves as unsatisfied, while just 23 percent of Republicans said the same about their party.
“They’re just not fighting back hard enough in my eyes,” said Matthew Berryhill, 35, a recruiter from Marietta, Ga., a pivotal battleground area in the state’s key Senate race this year, who described himself as a progressive Democrat. “They come out with strong statements and strong words, and no action to back it up.”
Still, as both parties mobilize for expensive and bitter midterm contests, the survey suggests that Republican candidates are entering their general-election races with stark political liabilities.
In a hypothetical question about this year’s midterm elections, Democrats held an advantage of 10 percentage points among registered voters, with 50 percent saying they would back the party’s candidate if the elections were held today and 39 percent saying they would support the Republican. The Democratic edge among independent voters was 18 points, though 16 percent declined to choose a preferred party.
[See all of the latest polls measuring President Trump’s approval rating and the 2026 race for Congress.]
Even as many Americans have yet to fully tune into the midterms, early signs point to greater enthusiasm among Democratic voters. Democrats were eight points more likely to say they were “almost certain” they would vote.
As peace talks with Iran stall and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to raise energy prices, there is little public appetite for Mr. Trump to resume military operations against the country. A majority of voters, 52 percent, said he should not do so if a deal could not be reached soon to end Iran’s nuclear program.
And as lawmakers on Capitol Hill debate congressional war powers, 63 percent of voters — including 27 percent of Republicans — said the president should not be able to use military force without congressional approval.
Still, large majorities of the president’s core supporters support the war with Iran and want it to continue. Seventy percent of Republicans thought that military operations should resume if a deal were not reached, and 73 percent expected the war to successfully eliminate Iran’s nuclear program.
“I think nipping it in the bud before they can get a nuclear weapon is in our best interest,” said Amanda Mann, 44, an in-home nurse in Myrtle Creek, Ore. “They’re constantly shouting ‘death to America.’ So why not protect us before they can get us?”
Views of the economy have darkened since Mr. Trump began to bomb Iran in late February. Since the start of the war, the average cost of a gallon of gasoline has surged to more than $4.50 a gallon, according to the AAA motor club. In recent weeks, several economic indicators, including consumer confidence, prices and household debt, have worsened.
The survey results reflect a growing sense of financial anxiety across the country. The share of voters who rate the economy as “poor” has risen by 11 percentage points since January, up to nearly half of all voters giving the worst rating for the economy. Even Republicans were evenly split, with roughly half saying the economy was only fair or poor.
THE NEW YORK TIMES/SIENA POLL
MAY 11-15
Thinking about the nation’s economy, how would you rate economic conditions today?
Trump takes office
0
10
20
30
40
50
60%
July 2023
Oct. 2024
May 2026
POOR
49%
ONLY FAIR
27%
GOOD
18%
EXCELLENT
4%
Based on New York Times/Siena polls of registered voters nationwide conducted in July 2023; February, April, September and October 2024; April and September 2025; and January and May 2026. Does not show the share of respondents who did not respond or said they didn’t know.Ashley Cai and Christine Zhang/The New York Times
The share of voters saying the country was on the right track fell by five points, from 37 percent in January to 32 percent in the latest poll. The decline was driven largely by a drop of 12 points among Republicans.
Approval of the president on economic issues has also notably declined from the beginning of the year.
Only 28 percent of voters in the poll believed he had handled the issue of the cost of living well, a drop of six points from January.
Among Republicans, there was a drop of 14 points since January.
“In the beginning, the economy was doing great, and he was doing what he was supposed to do” said Francine Alfano, 56, who voted for Mr. Trump in 2024. “Once we went into war, everything changed.”
Ms. Alfano, who owns a food truck in Vineland, N.J., said higher costs for gas and food had hurt her business.
“It’s terrible,” she said. “Everything’s terrible. It’s totally affected me.”
In recent days, Mr. Trump has brushed off such economic concerns. As the poll was being conducted last week, he told reporters that the financial situation of Americans did not motivate him — “even a little bit” — to end the war with Iran.
“I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation,” he added. “I don’t think about anybody. I think about one thing: We cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon.”
Mr. Trump’s most favorable issue remains immigration, where his approval rating has largely held steady at 41 percent.
“Basically the only thing I can say that he’s doing right is to crack down on the illegal immigration,” said Ronald Marsh, 66, a retired professor of computer science in Grand Forks, N.D., who voted for Mr. Trump three times. “But pretty much everything else at this point is questionable.”
Here are the key things to know about this New York Times/Siena poll:
The survey was conducted among 1,507 registered voters nationwide from May 11 to 15, 2026.
This poll was conducted in English and Spanish, by telephone using live interviewers. Overall, 99 percent of respondents were contacted on their cellphone. You can see the exact questions that were asked and the order in which they were asked here.
Voters are selected for the survey from a list of registered voters. The list contains information on the demographic characteristics of every registered voter, allowing us to make sure we reach the right number of voters of each party, race and region. For this poll, interviewers placed nearly 260,000 calls to more than 97,000 voters.
To further ensure that the results reflect the entire voting population, not just those willing to take a poll, we give more weight to respondents from demographic groups that are underrepresented among survey respondents, like people without a college degree. You can see more information about the characteristics of respondents and the weighted sample at the bottom of the results and methodology page, under “Composition of the Sample.”
The margin of sampling error among registered voters is about plus or minus 2.8 percentage points. In theory, this means that the results should reflect the views of the overall population most of the time, though many other challenges create additional sources of error.
You can see full results and a detailed methodology here. If you want to read more about how and why we conduct our polls, you can see answers to frequently asked questions and submit your own questions here.
Comments