PUTIN! The Nuclear Codes, His Cancer or a Heart Attack, What Then?

The Russian military would go on high alert, and the nuclear codes would be passed down the line of succession. The leadership would disperse to undisclosed locations, in case there were a coup or an attack. Doctors would work around the clock to (a) attempt resuscitation, (b) figure out what triggered the heart attack, and (c) look for anything suspicious. There would be no surprises here. Passport control at the airports would be tightened for high officials. Special police and guards would be deployed at strategic locations, and armed police would patrol large cities. NATO would also go on high alert, to match the posture of the Russian military. NATO and Japanese Aegis destroyers would fan out through the Pacific, Arctic and Atlantic Oceans within 4-6 days, for a month or two. US, British and French nuclear submarines would be deployed in the Arctic and Pacific oceans for three months, possibly longer. In the meantime, the West will try to find out who controls Russian nuclear launch codes and for how long. 

No announcement would be made in Russia for about 24 hours, until stock markets in Europe dropped by 2% (and by 5% in Russia). Markets would drift lower for a few days, but reverse half the losses when nothing outrageous happened in Moscow and everything was explained in state media. Oil prices would go up on the uncertainty and stay high for longer. During a short period of mourning, mainstream Russian media would act a little lost. There would be a lot of classical music on Russian TV channels, including the Swan Lake. After the surprisingly modest burial, one would see an unusual amount of statistics, used to substantiate both positive and not-so-positive opinions about Putin's reign. Towns and landmarks would be renamed after Putin, or at least some officials would try that. Within a week, the media would raise the "What now?" issue. 

In the meantime, a predetermined temporary replacement, most likely Dmitry Medvedev, would formally take Putin's place and continue essentially the same policies for about a year. Behind the scenes, several groups of power-players -- (1) the political elite, (2) the military, (3) the state security and interior ministry, as well as (4) professional economists and the business elite, - would duke it out for influence.

There would be no fireworks for a while. Russia is up for parliamentary elections in 2016 and presidential elections in 2018. So, whoever ended up running the show would be legitimized through elections, and their opponents would be handicapped. Some candidates might not be allowed to run. Some would be investigated for corruption or other crimes. Others would be praised by the state media as trustworthy politicians, capable administrators, experienced managers, and true patriots.

My money is on the state security camp making a deal with the business elite, and also making promises to the military not to break glass for some time. In this case, the elections optics will be "new and improved", and the West will praise the elections (but really, just the optics :) A number of figurehead politicians will lose their jobs, and it will look like a big change, but many of the movers and shakers will remain. What happens next is going to be very interesting, but is really beyond the scope of the question.

 

P.S. The likelihood of Putin dying of natural or unnatural causes before 2018 is small. For one, his demise would not solve any serious questions, and might only complicate them. It would also create uncertainty and geopolitical risk. IMHO, Putin has already made key decisions that only he could make. He appears to be in reasonable health (despite various rumors) and, in any case, has access to superb medical care. He is not sanctioned by the West, so could receive treatment abroad if necessary. Update: if the MH 17 investigation convincingly implicates Putin, this could make him toxic even to his own people. Still a long shot, but I revised "tiny" to "small" in the first sentence of this paragraph. 

P.P.S. This question brought some memories from 1982, when Leonid Brezhnev died, and several Soviet leaders followed him quickly, until Mikhail Gorbachev was assigned the leader of the USSR in 1985. Incidentally, the USSR shot down Korean Air Lines Flight 007 in 1983, killing all passengers, and did not accept responsibility. Yeltsin accepted it ten years later on behalf of the Russian Federation. Russian TV has a saying for such cases, "Coincidence? - I think not!" (I am being facetious). 

Update: there is a more conspiratorial scenario, where Putin is replaced by one of his body doubles for some time, while a shadowy committee runs the country. This would look as if nothing happened until the replacement holds negotiations with foreign leaders. For one, foreign leaders have the right to know whether they are dealing with the real Putin because any negotiations held with a replacement and any treaties signed by him would be null and void. 

Soviets used to speak of “the perfect Soviet Man” as in an ideal Soviet society. I guess we’re close to that now. It used to be that after a leaders death, he’d be heavily embalmed & given a place of honor in Red Square. 

Well, V.P. Is enjoying his chemically frozen face, his right arm is set in rigor mortis &he still haunts Red Square. Only problem is he’s still giving orders.

 

Well, his face wouldn’t change.

Kim's Opinion

Political Blogger, Independent Opinion( Published on QUORA First)