Showing posts with label Hurricaine/ Storm. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hurricaine/ Storm. Show all posts

January 27, 2015

Crippling,Historic, Devastating Blizzard are the Adjectives being used for the Snow Outside


In case the electric fails adamfoxie.com  will continue to give updates like we have done for you in years past. We will transmit until the batteries give up. This bring memories of sitting in a dark room typing updates to post on Facebook. This was before Google+ * and I will only do if it’s really necessary. I hope not, will rather watch movie.

Ready for a snow day, anyone? A major blizzard is converging on New England and may dump as much as a foot or more of snow on major cities like New York City and Boston.
According to the Weather Channel, blizzard watches are in effect from southern New England to New York City with a lesser storm warning issued as far west as metro Philadelphia. The snowfall will peak late Monday night and is expected to reach a foot or more in New York City, with six inches expected in Philadelphia and up to two staggering feet in southern and eastern New England "including Boston, Providence, Rhode Island and Portland, Maine." Boston may see even more.

Source: The Weather Channel

The Weather Channel is dubbing the storm "potentially historic," and it looks like this time they're not exaggerating. Washington Post weather expert Wes Junker reports that the storm could have "potentially crippling impacts" on some coastal areas.

Source: The Weather Channel

"This storm could produce a stripe of heavy to possibly crippling snow and strong winds, which would lead to blizzard conditions," Junker reported. "Where the low tracks off the coast, and how quickly it develops, will determine who in in the northeast might be impacted the worst. All the model solutions on Saturday morning would crush the Northeast somewhere between N.J. and New England. It’s too early to say exactly who would garner the most snow." 

Depending on which forecast model is used, Washington Post's Angela Fritz adds that the worst could hit a range from Boston to northern New Jersey or even miss much of the East Coast entirely, making it a "bust for most of the Northeast."

European model forecast (left) vs. NAM forecast (right).
Source: weatherbell.com via Washington Post

European model forecast (left) vs. NAM forecast (right). Image from weatherbell.com via Washington Post
Here's exactly when the snowfall is projected to hit, via Accuweather:

Source: Accuweather

Snowfall on Saturday afternoon has already left five inches of snow on the ground in New York City, with New Jersey and northern New York reporting up to nine inches of accumulation in some areas. 



The worst is projected for Monday night through Tuesday morning, with winds reaching up to 35 mph throughout New York, Long Island and New England — so maybe put a pin in those travel plans until meteorologists give the all-clear.

November 15, 2013

US Aircraft Carrier Group Begins Work in the Philippines

Four Ospreys from the U.S. Navy Ship (USNS) Charles Drew prepare to taxi on the tarmac of Tacloban airport in the aftermath of super typhoon Haiyan November 14, 2013.


The U.S. Navy launched a huge relief operation in the typhoon-ravaged central Philippines Thursday, as the devastated Philippine city of Tacloban began the grim task of burying its dead.

The aircraft carrier USS George Washington and a contingent of seven supply ships arrived in the Philippine Sea early Thursday, and began delivering water and emergency rations to the wrecked city. The carrier also has medical facilities and can produce 1.5 million liters of fresh water a day. One of the ships in the carrier group, the USNS Charles Drew, made its first delivery of food and drinking water to the storm ravaged city of Tacloban Thursday.

The giant hospital ship USS Mercy also is making emergency preparations to depart the United States, and is expected to join the emergency flotilla within weeks, along with the British carrier HMS Illustrious.

Meanwhile, rescue personnel began lowering unidentified bodies into a mass grave near Tacloban's city hall Thursday, as U.S. helicopters sped food and water to the city and reconnaissance aircraft began charting the areas worst-hit last week by Typhoon Haiyan.

The flow of relief supplies has been hampered by wrecked roadways and the lack of gasoline in and near the city.  Officials say the fuel shortages have been made worse by retail merchants afraid to sell their gasoline supplies for fear of rioting by an increasingly desperate population.

There were no official burial ceremonies Thursday.  But a police photographer told the Associated Press that a portion of the femur was removed from each corpse, and that technicians will later extract DNA from those remains to match with surviving next of kin.

The death toll from last Friday's storm stands at 2,357, although Tacloban's mayor said the count is expected to rise significantly.

United Nations humanitarian chief Valerie Amos, who toured Tacloban Wednesday, later called the situation "dismal," with tens of thousands of people living during monsoon season in the open and exposed to rain and wind.

Food, water and other basic necessities are still in short supply for many of the hundreds of thousands displaced. Some have turned to looting to survive. One survivor said she has not received any help, six days after the storm.

"We haven't received anything, not even a drop of porridge. My two siblings could die, my elder brother and my nephew are sick, I'm the only one who is not sick. Are they going to wait for all of us here to get sick and die one by one before they do anything? And when we ask them, they sid, 'We have no information.' What kind of people are these? They said they would help.''

Although the amount of aid material shipped to affected areas has steadily increased, much of it has been unused at airports or other areas because of a lack of fuel and because roads are still blocked by debris.

Asked why the arrival of aid has not happened faster Jeremy Konyndyk, the Director of the Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance for USAID, said in a VOA interview that: "we had to work a couple of days to work through some logistical obstacles and just to get the aid pipeline set up."  Konyndyk said over the next couple of days there will be a “ eal uptick" in the amount of relief getting into the small and damaged Tacloban airport,  and getting out to people who need it.

voanews.com

November 8, 2013

Live Satellite Tracking of Cyclone Hitting the Philippines

The Philippines is vulnerable to severe flooding caused by heavy rains and tsunamis. It is hit by about 20 tropical cyclones each year.
 
Courtesy Central Weather Bureau, Taiwan.

October 29, 2013

At Least 13 Dead as Storm Hits NWEurope

 People watch a boat from the shore as a storm passes over the beach in Scheveningen
Dutch resort of Scheveningen 
A storm battering north-western Europe has killed at least 13 people - six of them in Germany.
Two people died when their car was crushed by a falling tree in Gelsenkirchen, in western Germany. Two children in the car were injured.
In Brittany, western France, a woman was swept out to sea. And in the Dutch city of Amsterdam a tree felled by the wind crushed a woman by a canal.
Record gusts of 191 km/h (119mph) were measured over the North Sea.
Many trains were cancelled in and around London and in north-western Germany.
At least 50 flights were cancelled at Schiphol airport in the Netherlands, and the German media reported severe delays at airports in Hamburg and Dusseldorf.
In Germany, a fisherman and a sailor were killed in separate accidents at sea.
Including the Gelsenkirchen incident, four people were killed in north-western Germany when trees fell onto cars, DPA reported.
Power cuts hit 42,000 homes in northern France, and at Belle-Ile in Brittany a woman was swept into the sea from a cliff.
The storm whipped across Brittany and Normandy early on Monday, felling trees and knocking out power lines in some places.
In the UK as many as 600,000 homes suffered power cuts, though many were later reconnected.
AmsterdamA woman was crushed to death in Amsterdam
The storm put several power lines out of action in northern France
Two police officers rush to secure a residential area after a suspected gas explosionTwo people died in west London after a felled tree caused a suspected gas explosion and house collapse
 
In Kent in southeast England, a 17-year-old girl was crushed when a tree fell on the caravans her family was living in while renovation work was taking place at their home.
A man and a woman died when they were trapped under rubble after an uprooted tree caused a gas explosion in Hounslow in west London.
Scandinavian warnings
Earlier, two P&O ferries that had been held in the English Channel because of the storm made it to port.
The storm system deepened as it crossed the North Sea, according to the BBC Weather Centre.
German meteorologists measured record wind speeds of 191 km/h (119mph) over the North Sea.
In Brussels, a big banner on the European Commission building - the Berlaymont - was shredded by the wind.
German authorities halted all local trains in Schleswig-Holstein, as well as the Hanover-Bremen service and north-bound trains from the state of North Rhine-Westphalia.
Along Germany's North Sea coast many ferries were confined to port and shipping on the Elbe was also disrupted, ARD reported.
Emergency services in Denmark and Sweden have issued storm warnings, as Scandinavia faces winds gusting at about 162km/h (100mph).

June 2, 2013

Tom Samaras } Storm Chasers Stars Dies in Tornado


Tim Samaras of the Discovery Channel show “Storm Chasers” was among the nine who died on Friday when a tornado touched down in El Reno, Oklahoma.
Also killed in the storm were his son Paul, and fellow storm chaser Carl Young.
Tim Samaras’ brother Jim wrote on Facebook, “Thank you to everyone for the condolences. It truly is sad that we lost my great brother Tim and his great son, Paul.”
He added, “Our hearts also go out to the Carl Young family as well, as they are feeling the same feelings we are today… They all unfortunately passed away but doing what they LOVED. Chasing tornadoes. I look at it that he is in the ‘big tornado in the sky.’”
The Discovery Channel said in a statement, “We are deeply saddened by the loss of Carl Young, Tim Samaras, and his son. Our thoughts and prayers go out to their families.”
 GossipCop  

December 23, 2012

We Learn NYC Had Been Preparing For Sandy for 5 Years



The performance of waterfront areas influenced by PlaNYC during Sandy shows that we should be advancing, not retreating, in the face of danger

 
Grand visions have always been a part of our city’s DNA—and in the years ahead, City Hall and its partners must once again draw on that tradition to prepare New York for the growing threat of climate change. As Sandy all too cruelly showed us, we are at increased risk from climate change-driven events like storms, floods, droughts and more. Preparing to meet those challenges is a large and complicated task, but it is one we cannot shy away from. As Mayor Bloomberg said just last week, “We may or may not see another storm like Sandy in our lifetimes, but I don’t think it’s fair to say that we should leave it to our children to prepare for the possibility.” 

Fortunately, we are not starting from scratch. Five years ago, the Bloomberg administration began working aggressively to prepare New York for the impacts of climate change. That effort was a key part of PlaNYC—a comprehensive program addressing every aspect of the city’s physical environment, from land use to energy, from water quality to transportation—and the first official recognition that adapting to climate change must be a key part of city policy. 

PlaNYC made New York better prepared than ever for a major event like Sandy—even though the hundred-year storm we were planning for came all too soon. Mayor Bloomberg’s most lasting legacy won’t be a single park or cultural site—it will be his vision for a city prepared to survive and thrive in a world of new competition, threats and dangers.
One of PlaNYC’s 132 initiatives was the creation of the city’s first-ever Office of Long-Term Planning and Sustainability, which envisioned and began implementing New York’s climate change mitigation efforts. It started by establishing a committee to determine the reality of the threats we face. Based on the committee’s assessment, actions were taken to address the most pressing risks. Huge swaths of the city were rebuilt, rezoned and refashioned to better weather those threats. Life- and infrastructure-saving initiatives were designed and put into action. A new approach to waterfront development allowed the city to do more with this valuable resource—safely, and despite the potential for flooding. Indeed the performance of waterfront areas influenced by PlaNYC during Sandy shows that we should be advancing, not retreating, in the face of danger.
For example the new 30-acre park under construction on Governors Island—which experienced peak flooding of almost 13 feet above sea level and saw five feet of water come over the South Island’s seawall—came through the storm nearly untouched, because events like Sandy were assumed during its design. From elevated fill to plantings that help maintain soil integrity, the park is built to last. Even unprotected construction equipment and trucks housed on the island survived the storm.
And Arverne by the Sea, a new real estate development in the Rockaways, saw almost none of the damage of its neighbors just blocks away. Built with natural barriers on an elevated land base and developed with a drainage system designed to handle the surges of a Sandy-like storm, Arverne by the Sea is a model of what can be built in even the most vulnerable coastal areas.
These two sites aren’t alone. Because of PlaNYC, the new Brooklyn Bridge Park was designed with the assumption that it would flood—and it was mostly open to the public just five days after Sandy. The 60-acre Willets Point development in Queens was elevated out of the flood plain. And New York’s first comprehensive Wetlands Strategy will restore and enhance nearly 127 acres and add 75 acres of new wetlands to the city’s parks system.
There were also some lower-profile, but perhaps more important, preparations. During Sandy, for example, there was no question that the Rockaways would be evacuated—after all, they are in Zone A. But if it weren’t for the work done by the PlaNYC team, citizens of the Rockaways might never have left their homes during the storm.
Here’s why: as part of PlaNYC, the city developed new infrastructure design standards for flood-prone areas, but could only compel utilities and transportation providers to meet those standards in official flood zones. Those zones, designated by FEMA, badly needed to be updated to account for current and future changes in sea levels. After FEMA refused to fund the update, we sought and secured funding on our own to fly twin-engine Shrike Commander aircraft over the entire city to laser-map the area.
We provided the new data to FEMA (which is still working to update its zone designations), but we also knew there was more we could do with the information. We decided to compare it with the city’s existing evacuation zones. The comparison revealed a serious problem: the Rockaways were not in an evacuation zone, and the new maps revealed just how vulnerable they are to flooding. We immediately decided to evacuate the Rockaways during the next incident—Irene. And following that storm, the city permanently added the Rockaways to Zone A. So as Sandy approached, there was no decision to be made, no bureaucratic hoops to jump through—thousands of Rockaways citizens were automatically evacuated.
It’s a complicated story, but one that shows what it takes to successfully prepare New York for the new normal: an ability to adapt to changing circumstances, to disrupt the status quo, to make connections and to envision a city prepared for whatever comes its way. PlaNYC is all that and more. It was recognized by the National Academies of Sciences’ America’s Climate Choices committee as “one of the most comprehensive approaches so far to adaptation in the United States.”
I am proud to have led the PlaNYC effort, and I truly believe it has permanently changed the way New York defends against the results of climate change. But while in retrospect our focus on climate change preparedness was an obvious choice, we faced tremendous resistance from various groups—developers, the media, and even within city government. After the city’s Panel on Climate Change issued a report advising the public and private sectors to take steps to mitigate the potential damage of climate-related severe weather events (including flooding and storm surges), The New York Post declared in a headline: “Mayor’s Hot-Head Scientists Push Climate Ahead of Jobs.” And that was one of the nicer stories.
If there is any good to come from Sandy, I hope it is that Mayor Bloomberg and his successors face less resistance as they prepare the city for the century ahead. And I hope that whoever becomes our next mayor will fuel the imagination of this stunning city and have the courage and decisiveness to get things done. We all need to demand that our leaders meet that standard. If they do, there can be no doubt that New York will always remain the greatest city in the world.
by Daniel L. Doctoroff  who is CEO and president of Bloomberg LP. He previously served as New York City’s deputy mayor for economic development and rebuilding.

November 21, 2012

The Age of Evacuation and Def Con 2


 



It’s commonplace now to say that governments have to change the way they plan and build in the wake of Superstorm Sandy. The governors of New York and New Jersey said as much in the immediate aftermath of the catastrophe, and there’s little question that they mean it. Chris Christie and Andrew Cuomo know better than most what reconstruction will cost, and how the rebuilding process will wreak havoc on their states’ budgets.
They know that their states simply can’t afford to keep rebuilding after every storm, just as they know that there will be more storms in this new age of violent weather patterns.
But other kinds of changes are necessary, and they start from the bottom up. The residents of New York and New Jersey, especially those in low-lying areas, have to understand that government officials aren’t kidding when they order an evacuation. In the immortal words of the governor of New Jersey, they have to get the hell off the beach if they are told to do so.
Most New Yorkers and New Jerseyans did just that, and if you want to know why there weren’t more deaths associated on Sandy, give credit to those level-headed residents of New Dorp and Midland Beach on Staten Island, the Rockaways, the Battery and dozens of Jersey shore towns. They left when evacuations were ordered, and in the process, they may have saved their lives.
Some people, however, chose to ignore official warnings. Some may have been skeptical of the dire forecasts, some simply have decided that no government official was going to tell them what to do.
More than a thousand go-it-aloners on Staten Island had to be rescued, at no small risk to members of the New York Police Department who braved a storm surge and downed power lines to save the lives of those trapped by the storm. Eight others died in the Staten Island town of Midland Beach, a small, low-lying community of bungalows that would not have looked out of place in Breezy Point or Seaside Heights.
This simply can’t happen again. In the storm to come—and there surely will be another superstorm in the near future—even the toughest New Yorkers have to realize that they are no match for a storm surge. Evacuation orders are not requests, nor are they issued lightly. Government may not have the power to force people from their homes, but from now on, it must be made clear that those who remain behind are, in essence, on their own.
Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano addressed this very issue during a visit to Staten Island. “The issue of those who either can’t or won’t abide by [evacuation] orders, that is a question we have to address,” she said.
The first part of the question is easy—assist in the evacuation of those who can’t leave.
As for those who won’t abide by evacuation orders, they have to understand that their decision will have consequences.

This is the new reality. Most New Yorkers understand that. Those who don’t cannot and should not expect that first responders will continue to risk their lives because of somebody’s foolishness. 
http://observer.com
pics adamfoxie*
  

November 19, 2012

Sandy Had Very Little Effect on Election {"Model Politics”}


 

In case you hadn't heard, there was a big storm right before the election. Despite no real evidence, pundits, and even some scholars, have tried to demonstrate an effect of Hurricane Sandy on the election outcome. Is it possible that it had an effect?
The likelihood that the hurricane had an effect on the election is exceedingly small. The final votes in states were remarkably close to estimates from polling averages that had been compiled before the storm and the places where Obama over-performed were predicted as over-performers by poll watchers long before the storm and, in fact, were not systematically related to the storm in any obvious way.
We don't have to rely on this birds-eye-view evidence though, we can look at specific polls and specifically ask people if the storm changed their vote. Here too, we find little evidence for an effect of Sandy on the election.
In a YouGov survey of a nationally representative sample of adults in the last weekend before the election, 4.6% of respondents claimed to still be undecided -- of these, 0%, not a single person, said that the hurricane would make them more likely to vote for Obama. 97% said it would have no effect on their vote. The other 3% They said it would make them more likely to vote for Romney.
It is possible that some people that were previously undecided had decided to vote for one candidate or another based on the storm, but this also seems doubtful: of all respondents, 90% of people said the storm would make no difference in their vote choice and most of those that said the storm would make a difference were probably just partisan cheerleaders that would have said anything would have made them more likely to vote for their preferred candidate or were just finding another reason to justify their vote for the person they would have voted for even without the storm. For example, 73% of those that said it made them more likely to vote for Obama were Democrats.
Moreover, looking at specific issues, we see evidence of people cheerleading for the person they would vote for anyway -- for example, of the 6.8% total that said the storm would make them more likely to vote for Obama, besides being mostly Democrats, 70% of those also said the economy would get better if Obama were elected, indicating they preferred Obama for reasons other than the storm. We also asked a series of questions about 13 other issue areas, from immigration to gay rights and, in every case, a strong majority of those that said they were more likely to vote for Obama because of the storm also said they approved or strongly approved of his handling of the issue (this question was asked before the question about the hurricane). We can't actually know what portion of persons approved of Obama on issues because they liked his handling of the storm or said the storm made them more likely to vote for Obama because they already liked his issues (there are arguments for it going either way) but even if just a portion of this effect represents cheerleading, it makes the small bump that Obama may have earned look even smaller -- take the 6.8% storm bump for Obama, subtract the 3.1% of respondents that said they would be more likely to vote for Romney because of the storm, that leaves about 3.7% of a storm bump for Obama. If half of this is cheerleading -- and my guess is that it was more than half cheerleading -- we are left with less than a 2% bump.
This 2% is much smaller than the ridiculously large effects that have been been proposed elsewhere. Two percent is, of course, enough to affect an election outcome in a close race, but if we look at the trend of polls in late October, this 2% "bump" would put it right in line with an upward trend that started long before the hurricane, meaning that some or all of the 2% is probably attributable to other non-storm factors.
The very small or zero effect of the storm is entirely predictable because it is well-understood thatvoters interpret issues and events through a partisan lens (most Republicans did not approve of Obama's handling of the storm, most Democrats did not approve of Romney's). "October surprises" - even of the superstorm variety - are exceedingly difficult to find in American politics, because partisanship leaves little room for surprise.
A note on how we might interpret this -- should we care that even superstorms can't shake people's attitudes? The downside is that people are stubbornly partisan - it is really hard to change their minds - but this also demonstrates the upside of partisanship, which is stability and a resistance to being swayed by phenomena that we probably don't want affecting elections - like storms. Stability is often considered a general virtue and a cause of national prosperity -- perhaps an unintended cost of this stability is stubborn partisanship.
A final note on why we look for events like storms - and gaffes and debates and such - to affect election outcomes, even though there is scant evidence for these effects and the stability of partisanship and informational screens make it unlikely that such things could affect election outcomes. The attention to these events is often attributed to market forces, e.g. the media's need to "sell newspapers", so they cover the horserace aspect of the campaign, which is more exciting than the scientific aspects like partisanship and economic forces. This may all be accurate, but as a more fundamental reason for our attention to these events, I offer the psychological explanation of "attribution error", which explains both why the media probably tends to see a correspondence between campaign events and political outcomes and the tendency of consumers of political news to accept those explanations. Attribution error (which has many other names and sub-theories attached) is a sweeping psychological concept that simply means humans try to explain the causes of behaviors and events - but we are bad at it. The theory says we tend to act as "naive scientists", so we often attribute causal explanations to things that occur at the same time: a poll moves after a debate, so the debate must have caused the poll to move; a storm happened before the election, so the storm must have caused Obama to win. This is not because people are stupid or incapable in a general sense, but just because we usually rely on heuristics, or mental shortcuts, to make sense of events. Concepts like partisan stability, regression to mean, and economic fundamentals are hard to understand, so as naive scientists we use the mental shortcut of correspondence in time to attribute cause to effect.

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