The Supremes 5-4 Split

Today marks the last day of the 2009-2010 U.S. Supreme Court session. History was made today. First, it was Justice John Paul Stevens' last day on the court, capping off a 35-year career on the bench where the 89-year-old justice became a favorite of progressives.

Second, on a much more somber note, it was the day after Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's husband died.

Third, continuing on the somber notes, the Supreme Court ruled 5-4 on a gun rights case that could potentially dismantle state and local gun control laws. As Paul Helmke, the President of the Brady Center and Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence, said in the wake of the court's decision, "the gun lobby and gun criminals will use it to try to strike down gun laws."

All that combined certainly makes for an historic day. Yet it was one more court case that may attract the most attention. It's called Christian Legal Society v. Martinez, and it revolved around a Christian group (Christian Legal Society) at the University of California Hastings. Christian Legal Society wanted the right to receive official recognition from the University (and potential funding), while at the same time being given permission to openly discriminate against LGBT students. UC Hastings, for their part, was not down with this plan, and said that if the Christian Legal Society wanted to be officially recognized and receive funding from the university, they could not discriminate against people on the basis of sexual orientation.

Cue the lawsuit. It was argued back in April, and the Supreme Court finally issued their decision today. They ruled 5-4 against the Christian Legal Society, sending the message that universities can indeed enforce anti-discrimination policies over all campus groups. By the skin of its teeth, this case marks a delicate victory for gay rights before the nation's highest court.

The five Supreme Court justices who were in the majority on this case were Justices Ginsburg, Stevens, Stephen Breyer, Sonia Sotomayor, and that perpetually-known-as-the-ultimate-swing-vote-on-the-court, Justice Anthony Kennedy. In opposition, perhaps not surprisingly, were the four justices who are commonly viewed as the most conservative members of the court: Justices Clarence Thomas, John Roberts, Antonin Scalia, and Samuel Alito.

In celebrating the decision reached by the court, several LGBT groups expressed hope that the current Supreme Court as we know it were throwing their weight behind the push for LGBT equality.

"Today, the Court upheld an important principle for all Americans, that government should not be forced to subsidize discrimination,” said Human Rights Campaign President Joe Solmonese. “UC Hastings and schools like it all over the country have worked hard to create welcoming spaces for all students, including those who are lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender. Today’s decision bolsters those efforts, while recognizing that Christian Legal Society, and groups like it, are free exclude whomever they want — without the financial support of their fellow students or taxpayers."

And Christopher Stoll, a senior attorney with the National Center for Lesbian Rights, echoed those comments by praising the Supreme Court's decision.

"The Court rejected the dangerous argument that anti-gay groups must be given a special exemption from non-discrimination policies," Stoll said, perhaps underscoring the most important point to come out of this Christian Legal Society case.

So what does this mean in both the short term and the long term?

Well, in the short term, the words of Stoll and Solmonese are pretty spot on. No matter which way you look at this ruling, it's a total win for advocates of LGBT equality. Had Christian Legal Society been victorious, it would have created loopholes for groups to weasel out of non-discrimination policies, all the while giving taxpayer money to bigoted groups. And that, to put it in very plain speak, would have totally sucked.

But are there tea leaves worth reading beyond just today's ruling? After all, in the coming months and years, the U.S. Supreme Court is likely going to be the final stop on federal cases involving "Don't Ask, Don't Tell," the legitimization of the Defense of Marriage Act, and the constitutionality of statewide bans on same-sex marriage. Might today's 5-4 decision in the gay rights direction foreshadow good news for these likely upcoming cases?

LGBT radio personality Michelangelo Signorile tweeted what's likely on a lot of people's minds today, in the wake of this Christian Legal Society decision. "Once again, Justice Kennedy swing vote on gay rights; This is breakdown Olson hoping for re: marriage case," Signorile tweeted.

The Olson he's referencing is Ted Olson, who along with rock star attorney David Boies, is heading up a federal court case challenging California's ban on same-sex marriage, Proposition 8. Olson and Boies argue that statewide bans on same-sex marriage violate federal law, because the U.S. Constitution provides for the right of same-sex marriage. Their case, Perry v. Schwarzenegger, could become the biggest gay rights court case this country has ever seen, times twelve. And though they've got quite the powerful argument on their side, there is plenty of concern over whether there will be at least five Supreme Court justices standing with them when their case eventually wraps up.

Justice Anthony Kennedy may just be that fifth vote, though admittedly, the make-up of the Court if/when Perry v. Schwarzenegger eventually reaches the Supreme Court is entirely unknown.

But what is known right now is that currently, there's a 5-4 split on the court that skews ever-so-slightly in the direction of LGBT rights. We saw it several years ago in Lawrence v. Texas, where Justice Kennedy (and to an extent, Justice Sandra Day O'Connor) joined with the court's liberal wing to overturn laws banning sodomy. And we're seeing it again today with the ruling in Christian Legal Society v. Martinez.

The question will become whether that 5-4 break for gay rights will happen again should the Court be asked to rule on issues like "Don't Ask, Don't Tell," the Defense of Marriage Act, and/or the constitutionality of same-sex marriage. Pundits and media personalities may speculate, but the truth is that nobody really knows.

So what do you think? Does today's victory in the Christian Legal Society case bode well for future gay rights cases before this Court? Or is this just one isolated case that won't much matter should these other issues eventually make their way to the most important nine black robes in the country?

Photo credit: Wikimedia Commons